NFL Picks Week 17 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
The Week 17 NFL slate is shaping up to be another great one. The action kicks off for a win-and-in game for the Cleveland Browns as they host the New York Jets. The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will battle in a potential playoff preview, while the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers—both alive in the NFC wild-card race—will face off in the Sunday night finale.
There are several exciting matchups on the Week 17 docket and playoff implications abound. The week will also feature multiple wagering opportunities, in case the thrill of the postseason chase isn't exciting enough.
Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite matchups of the week and examine some player props to consider based on the mid-week odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
David Njoku Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
1 of 4
Our favorite prop for Thursday night involves Browns tight end David Njoku and this receiving over/under (-110).
While Njoku has only reached the mark in two of his four games with Joe Flacco at quarterback, the two have formed a strong connection. Njoku was limited to 44 receiving yards last week, but Flacco couldn't stop throwing to Amari Cooper—who finished with a franchise record 265 receiving yards.
Expect the Jets to focus on containing Cooper in this one, which should give Njoku frequent one-on-one coverage opportunities. Flacco will trust his tight end in those situations, as evidenced by the 195 yards Njoku produced in Weeks 14 and 15.
The biggest risk here is the possibility that Cleveland will look to play away from New York's talented secondary and lean on the ground game instead. That feels like a minor risk, though, as head coach Kevin Stefanski has not been afraid to let Flacco sling it.
In his four starts as a Brown, Flacco has attempted no fewer than 42 passes.
Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
2 of 4
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is +124 to pass for three or more touchdowns, a feat he hasn't achieved since Week 13.
While this is a high over/under for passing scores, it's important to recognize just how much better Prescott and the Cowboys have been at home. The 30-year-old has thrown for three or more touchdown passes in three of his last four games in Arlington.
The Detroit Lions offense is potent enough that Dallas should stay in passing mode, much like it did against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13. This wasn't the case against the Philadelphia Eagles in Prescott's last home outing, as Philly fell behind early and never recovered.
And while Detroit can move the ball offensively, it has struggled against opposing passing attacks this season. The Lions rank 25th in passing touchdowns allowed (24) and 23rd in passing yards allowed.
Expect plenty of offensive back and forth in this game and for Prescott to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Dallas offense.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
3 of 4
While the Lions can certainly try keeping pace with Dallas by leaning on Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the passing game, a run-heavy approach would be more logical.
The Cowboys defense is solid, but it has had its issues against the run this season. For the season, Dallas has allowed an average of 4.2 yards per carry, and it ranks 19th in rushing yards allowed.
Two weeks ago, however, the Buffalo Bills leaned into the run and racked up 266 yards on the ground while routing Dallas 31-10. Detroit may not have the same success, but it should try the approach. Doing so just might back off Micah Parsons and the Cowboys pass rush and give Goff some much-needed time in the pocket.
This makes rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs' over/under for rushing yards (-115) an attractive option. Gibbs has hit 54 rushing yards in each of his past five games. Expect him to do it again this Saturday.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Dalton Kincaid Over 2.5 Receptions
4 of 4
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid has a relatively low over/under for receptions (-130) this week, which isn't a shock due to his recent usage. Buffalo has become a bit of a run-first team as of late, and the rookie pass-catcher has just one catch in his last two outings.
However, he should return to a prominent role this week against the New England Patriots. No team has been better on a per-play basis against the run than New England (3.2 yards per carry allowed).
While Bill Belichick may have lost some of his coaching luster this season, he's still eager to take away an opponents' top offensive threat.
When these two teams met in Week 7, No. 1 Bills receiver Stefon Diggs was held to just 58 receiving yards—though he did have a touchdown. With Buffalo unable to get a ton going on the ground in that game (81 yards on 24 carries), Kincaid became a focal point and finished with eight catches and 75 yards.
Kincaid may not reproduce his Week 7 numbers, but after averaging five receptions over his first 12 games, he should hit the over again here.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
