NFL Playoff Picture Week 17: AFC, NFC Scenarios, Predictions for 2023 Postseason

Just two weeks remain in the 2023 NFL season, and virtually every playoff race is too close to call.

Six teams have clinched a postseason berth, and eight have been eliminated, but only the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions have secured division titles. Everything else is up for grabs, setting the stage for a wild ride through this closing stretch.

Let's get a lay of the land ahead of Week 17, then, and finish with a pair of predictions for what's to come.

Updated Standings

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PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 25: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles passes the ball during the second quarter against the New York Giants at Lincoln Financial Field on December 25, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

American Football Conference

1. x-Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

2. x-Miami Dolphins (11-4)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)

5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)

6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)

8. Houston Texans (8-7)

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)

10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)

11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)

12. Denver Broncos (7-8)

Eliminated: New York Jets (6-9), Tennessee Titans (5-10), Los Angeles Chargers (5-10), New England Patriots (4-11)

National Football Conference

1. z-San Francisco 49ers (11-4)

2. x-Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)

3. z-Detroit Lions (11-4)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

5. x-Dallas Cowboys (10-5)

6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7)

7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)

8. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)

9. Atlanta Falcons (7-8)

10. Green Bay Packers (7-8)

11. New Orleans Saints (7-8)

12. Chicago Bears (6-9)

Eliminated: New York Giants (5-10), Washington Commanders (4-11), Arizona Cardinals (3-12), Carolina Panthers (2-13)

*z-clinched division; x-clinched playoff berth

Week 17 Clinching Scenarios

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INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 23: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on December 23, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

For as little as has been sorted out so far, clarity could be coming soon.

Once the dust settles on the Week 17 slate, it's possible that 11 different teams will have secured something, whether that's a playoff berth, a division title or even the No. 1 seed.

Clear

Playoff Predictions

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 24: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins looks to throw a pass during the first quarter in the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Dolphins snag the No. 1 seed

Yes, the Ravens looked incredible on Christmas night, but the Dolphins had their own signature win in Week 16, as Jason Sanders' walk-off field goal (his fifth of the day) helped them edge the Cowboys.

Miami now heads up to Baltimore, where the Ravens have actually suffered more losses (two) than they have on the road (one). If the Dolphins can make this a shootout, they might hit a gear that even Lamar Jackson can't match. Miami's offense is tops in the league in both yards (411.5 per game) and points (30.9).

Win Sunday, and the Dolphins are in the driver's seat for the No. 1 spot. They'd still need to knock off the Bills in Week 18, but Buffalo doesn't always bring its best.

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The NFC playoff picture doesn't change

Given how tightly packed the standings are, you'd be forgiven for thinking pandemonium is imminent.

The reality, though, might be a lot more clear-cut than it seems. Using playoff probabilities from the Next Gen Stats Analytics Team at NFL.com, the top-seeded 49ers have a 71 percent chance of staying where they are. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an 86 percent chance of winning the NFC South. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks both have better than a 65 percent chance of snagging a playoff berth.

The Vikings, who have dropped consecutive one-score losses, have the best odds of the NFC's bubble teams, but they're only at 31 percent. Even that feels ambitious with Minnesota losing Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson to a season-ending knee injury.