NFL Week 16 Takeaways: Updated Playoff Seeding, Top Storylines for Christmas Day 2023
Happy holidays, and welcome to the NFL's biggest challenge yet to the NBA's Christmas Day dominance.
With four Super Bowl contenders in action and another still-alive playoff contender on the field, and with two divisional matchups on the three-game slate, there's plenty of intrigue this Dec. 25.
Here's how things are shaping up, along with some key takeaways from the yuletide action.
AFC Playoff Picture
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Teams that have clinched postseason berth (X). All teams updated through Sunday's completed games.
Current AFC Playoff Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3) - X
2. Miami Dolphins (11-4) - X
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
In the Hunt
8. Houston Texans (8-7)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)
12. Denver Broncos (7-8)
Eliminated: New England Patriots (4-11), Los Angeles Chargers (5-10), Tennessee Titans (5-10), New York Jets (6-9)
Week 17 Matchups That Could Have Biggest Impact on Standings:
· Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
· Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
· Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Best Potential First-Round Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
NFC Playoff Picture
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Teams that have clinched postseason berth (X). All teams updated through Sunday's completed games.
Current NFC Playoff Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-4) - X
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) - X
3. Detroit Lions (11-4) - X
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
5. Dallas Cowboys (10-5) - X
6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
In the Hunt
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
10. Green Bay Packers (7-8)
11. New Orleans Saints (7-8)
Eliminated: Carolina Panthers (2-13), Arizona Cardinals (3-12), Washington Commanders (4-11), New York Giants (5-10)
Week 17 Matchups That Could Have Biggest Impact on Standings:
· Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
· New Orleans Saint at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
· Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Best Potential First-Round Matchup: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
The Kansas City Chiefs Are Broken
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It's looking more and more as though the curse of reigning Super Bowl winners will be extended another year. Nobody has repeated as Super Bowl champs since the 2004 New England Patriots did so, and now the 2022 champion Kansas City Chiefs look like a team that has no business in the Super Bowl picture.
In their 20-14 Christmas Day home loss to the inferior division rival Las Vegas Raiders, quarterback Patrick Mahomes once again looked far from his elite self in a dud performance that featured two turnovers resulting in Raiders defensive touchdowns in a seven-second span.
That might have been aberrational, but it was a third consecutive multi-turnover game for a team that has gone 2-4 since its Week 10 bye and can no longer secure the top seed in the AFC.
And it could get worse. They've now lost three straight at vaunted Arrowhead Stadium, so nothing's guaranteed next week at home against the desperate Cincinnati Bengals or the following week on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers. The AFC West remains up for grabs.
Look, we still can't count the Chiefs out. They're broken, but Mahomes is a magician, Andy Reid is a legend and the team certainly has the talent and experience to suddenly go on a January run all the way to Super Bowl LVIII. This is potentially fixable, but right now it's hard to believe the Chiefs can right the ship on time. The team has seemingly become careless, unfocused, mistake-prone and even appears apathetic.
It seems this isn't their year.
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Even If It's Too Late for the Raiders, Antonio Pierce Has Earned the Long-Term Gig
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Meanwhile, the Raiders still have an outside shot at the playoffs following another inspired effort from a team that is without its starting quarterback and head coach from Week 1.
That says a lot about the job interim head coach Antonio Pierce has done since taking over for the fired Josh McDaniels.
Under Pierce, the Raiders have put up a respectable 4-3 record. But that includes back-to-back astonishing performances: a jaw-dropping 63-21 victory over the Chargers in Week 15 and now this mega-upset of the juggernaut Chiefs in a prime-time road game.
There's a lot up in the air regarding the 2024 Raiders, and there's still a chance they sneak into the postseason. But for now, the team at least has a fairly obvious route in terms of its head-coaching situation.
The Eagles Needed This, but They Still Don't Look Like a Super Bowl Team
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Super Bowl contenders rarely can afford four-game losing streaks in the month of December. Arguably, few can afford three-gamers, but the Philadelphia Eagles have earned some benefit of the doubt the last couple seasons.
Regardless, it was critical that Philly found a way to beat a bad team at home by a narrow margin on Monday, despite a Jalen Hurts pick-six, a fumble on a kickoff return leading almost directly to a New York Giants touchdown, and nine penalties to New York's three.
Yeah, it doesn't sound great. Because it wasn't. If cornerback Bradley Roby had been flagged for a pretty blatant pass interference call in the dying moments, the Giants could have easily taken the Eagles to overtime despite essentially being down to their third quarterback with virtually nothing on the line.
Like their division rival Dallas, and like the aforementioned Chiefs, the Eagles are making too many untimely mistakes. It's now been more than two months since they've won a game in convincing fashion, and with Arizona and the Giants on the upcoming sked they won't get another legitimate test until the playoffs arrive.
They've got to figure out quite a bit between now and then. Otherwise, they won't stand a chance against the San Francisco 49ers—if they even survive to meet the presumed NFC top seed.
At Least the Giants Got Some Clarity on Tommy Devito's Future (He Isn't the Answer)
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Just in case anybody was still under the impression that the New York Giants might have found a diamond in the rough and a long-term answer not named Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito provided clarity with a second consecutive poor performance Monday in Philadelphia.
Yes, the Giants hung in thanks to myriad Philly miscues, but the undrafted rookie, who not long ago had become somewhat of a cult hero in the land of the G-Men, was benched at halftime after generating just 55 passing yards on 15 attempts and averaging just 1.1 air yards per throw.
That came a week after DeVito posted a mere 72.8 passer rating as the Giants offense generated just six points in a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints, which is tough considering that he entered this slump on a hot streak that featured a 119.8 rating over the course of three Big Blue victories.
DeVito certainly got the most out of his 15 minutes, but he's another Jeremy Lin in the New York sports scene. Soon, you'll likely forget he was ever taken semi-seriously as a potential long-term option.
Jones might not be the answer, but that just means it may be back to the drawing board for the Giants organization.
Lamar Jackson Just Stole the MVP from Brock Purdy, for now
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Prior to Christmas Day, sophomore seventh-round 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was widely considered the MVP favorite.
That has changed, dramatically.
In what was undoubtedly the worst performance of his NFL career to date, Purdy threw four interceptions in a 33-19 prime-time home loss to a Baltimore Ravens team that San Francisco very well may play again if it can make it to Super Bowl LVIII.
Meanwhile, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson—a prime MVP candidate himself entering Week 16—posted a triple-digit passer rating and rushed for 45 yards in a turnover-free performance as Baltimore made a huge road statement.
At this point, the MVP race is at least likely to be a close call. Voters on the fence will likely have a tough time siding with Purdy over Jackson with this evening in mind, so there's a good chance we witnessed an MVP-making tilt in the Bay Area.
Purdy could still leapfrog Jackson, but he doesn't have many big moments left because San Francisco is still likely to easily take the NFC's top seed with only Washington and the Rams remaining on the schedule. However, Jackson could still hurt his case with a poor performance next week at home against the Miami Dolphins, in which case it's also possible Tua Tagovailoa creeps back into the picture.
At the very least, there's now plenty of intrigue in this multi-horse race.
The NFC Path to the Super Bowl Is Wide Freakin' Open
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The NFL's true gift today? More proof that nobody is running away with the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season, especially in the NFC. All three favorites failed to cover at home on Monday, and only Philadelphia was victorious albeit in less-than-emphatic fashion.
The 49ers reminded us that they're fallible with a second-year Mr. Irrelevant at quarterback and some potentially problematic injuries. Meanwhile, the Eagles put together their eighth consecutive non-awesome performance. They may be 11-4 and tied with San Francisco atop the NFC standings, but it's easy to be concerned about a Philly team that has scored just 26 more points than it has allowed in 2023.
That scoring margin puts the Eagles in the same range as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams, rather than perceived heavyweights like Dallas, San Francisco, Miami and Baltimore.
The path could truly be there for the Detroit Lions, who are now locked into a three-way tie atop the conference but have also had plenty of stumbles since their Week 9 bye. The Cowboys could certainly have it in them but have lost back-to-back critical December games, meaning currently-in-the-postseason afterthoughts like Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and the Seattle Seahawks could still find a way if they get hot and the so-called elites of the conference continue to leave the door open.
For those who enjoy parity and guessing games in sports, the next few weeks could serve as the gift that keeps on giving—especially in the NFC.
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