NFL Week 16 Takeaways: Updated Playoff Picture, Top Storylines from Saturday's Games
The NFL provided football fans with a meaningful Saturday night double-header to kick off the weekend. Up first was a battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers, two AFC wild-card contenders.
The Bengals came in on a hot streak, while the Steelers were reeling. However, the Bengals were stunned by a Pittsburgh defense eager to defend its home turf and an unexpected aerial explosion from quarterback Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers surged in a 24-point first half, and aside from a long Tee Higgins touchdown reception, largely stymied the Bengals offense. The result was a 34-11 Pittsburgh win that keeps the Steelers' playoff hopes afloat and puts Cincinnati in a daunting hole.
The Los Angeles Chargers hosted the Buffalo Bills in the nightcap. While Buffalo was white-hot coming off of wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, it outlasted Los Angeles by the narrowest of margins.
It took a Cameron Dicker field goal with less than a minute remaining in regulation and a final defensive stop to put away a Chargers team motivated to play for interim coach Giff Smith.
Buffalo's 24-22 victory puts the Bills one step closer to securing a playoff spot, while officially eliminating the Chargers from postseason contention.
Below, you'll find our biggest takeaways for each team and what Saturday's results mean for the AFC playoff picture.
AFC Playoff Picture
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Current AFC Playoff Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3)*
2. Miami Dolphins (10-4)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
5. Cleveland Browns (9-5)
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
In the Hunt
8. Houston Texans (8-6)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
11. Denver Broncos (7-7)
Eliminated: New England Patriots (3-11), New York Jets (5-9), Tennessee Titans (5-9), Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
*= clinched playoff berth
Mike Tomlin Has Not Lost Control of the Steelers
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Over the past few weeks, it sure felt like the Steelers had lost their edge. They were physically pushed around by the Arizona Cardinals, started slow against the New England Patriots and faded quickly against the Indianapolis Colts.
It was fair to wonder whether Mike Tomlin, who has been Pittsburgh's head coach since 2007, was still capable of keeping this team together. Such questions, though, did not come from inside the organization.
According to ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio, the Steelers aren't interested in replacing Tomlin in the near future.
"A source with knowledge of the situation tells PFT that the Steelers intend to extend Tomlin's contract before the 2024 season begins," Florio wrote.
Saturday's game was a great example of why Pittsburgh still believes Tomlin can provide a winner. Turning to Rudolph (17-of-27 for 290 yards, 2 TDs) over Mitch Trubisky helped spark the passing game, and Tomlin found some way to get George Pickens (195 yards, 2 TDs) to refocus during the week.
Fans can question why it took this long for Tomlin to turn to Rudolph—and whether he'll stick with Rudolph once Kenny Pickett is healthy—but they can't question his ability to get his team up for a pivotal divisional game with a playoff atmosphere.
At 8-7, the Steelers are still long shots to make the postseason. With games at the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens left, though, they can't be written off just yet.
Jake Browning Magic Disappears, and the Bengals' Playoff Hopes May Have Gone with It
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Cincinnati came into Saturday on a three-game winning streak, and it felt like Jake Browning had helped make the Bengals contenders again.
To a large degree, Browning had done exactly that, and many may have underestimated just how many warts the 27-year-old was covering up. Browning did get assistance from Joe Mixon, Chase Brown and Cincinnati's ground game—not to mention a stellar collection of receivers—but he was constantly forced to offset an underwhelming defense.
Let's not forget that Cincinnati needed overtime to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings because of that defense. Coming into Week 16, the Bengals ranked 31st in yards per rush allowed, 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 30th in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed.
As long as Browning—who had five touchdown passes and two interceptions over his past three starts—kept rolling, though, the Bengals would be OK, right?
Without No. 1 receiver Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder), Browning failed to keep his high level of play going.
Browning did throw for 335 yards, but he was sacked three times and threw three picks. His two first-half interceptions—including one in the end zone—led to Steelers touchdowns and a big early deficit.
Would the Bengals have won with Joe Burrow? We'll never know, but Browning was unable to pull a win out of his hat in this one.
While the Bengals have two games in which to try rebounding—at the Kansas City Chiefs and versus the Cleveland Browns—they're in trouble. Cincinnati now has an 0-5 record in the AFC North and a 3-7 record in the conference. That severely limits the Bengals' chances of getting into the playoffs via a tiebreaker.
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Bills Win, but Road Struggles Remain a Concern
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The Bengals' loss made things simple for the Bills. If they win their final three games, they'll be guaranteed a spot in the postseason.
Buffalo got win No. 1 by beating the Chargers. However, it was more of a challenge than it should have been against a five-win squad starting its backup quarterback.
The defense struggled to contain Easton Stick, who continually found holes in Buffalo's injury-depleted secondary. While Josh Allen delivered a couple of big shots—including a 57-yard touchdown pass to Gabe Davis—and did plenty with his legs, he also had his fair share of struggles.
Allen only had six incompletions and one interception, but his misfires often came at inopportune times. This, along with penalties (seven) and turnovers (three), made it impossible for Buffalo to sustain drives and wear down the Chargers the way it did against the Dallas Cowboys last week.
Cross-country trips are always difficult, but Saturday's road struggles are concerning because they're part of a trend. The Cowboys have drawn plenty of criticism for being a poor road team this season, but it's worth noting that Buffalo quietly came into Week 16 with a 2-5 record away from Highmark Stadium (including a "home" game in London).
Allen has only thrown five interceptions in seven home games, and 10 picks in eight road contests.
Yes, the Bills played a close game in Philadelphia and beat the Chiefs on the road recently, but Saturday's game was a step in the wrong direction. That's potentially problematic, because after hosting the New England Patriots next week, Buffalo finishes against the Dolphins in Miami—and if the Bills get into the playoffs as a wild-card team, they'll again be trying to win on the road.
Chargers Show Improved Effort in First Game Since Firing Brandon Staley
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The Chargers, playing without Justin Herbert or Keenan Allen, gave Buffalo everything it could handle on Saturday night.
Stick made some terrific throws in the passing game while providing a boost to the ground game with his legs. Austin Ekeler had a terrific game, and the defense played one of its better games of the season.
Los Angeles came into Week 16 ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 29th in total yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. Its defense managed to fluster the Bills for stretches while forcing three turnovers.
To put it bluntly, L.A. looked and played like a more complete and more driven team than we've seen most of the season. It certainly didn't look like the same squad that stumbled to a 63-21 loss against the Las Vegas Raiders in Brandon Staley's final game.
It's now extremely difficult to believe that the players didn't decide to quit on Staley at some point this season.
The Chargers' performance has no bearing on the playoff race since L.A. has been eliminated, but it's potentially huge heading into the offseason.
Smith, formerly the outside linebackers coach, may not have a realistic shot at keeping the job with only a three-game audition. Los Angeles will almost certainly conduct an open coaching search in the offseason.
The presence of Herbert should already make the Chargers job one of the most coveted of the 2024 cycle. Saturday's game could help add to its attractiveness because it showed that, when the players are buying in, Herbert's supporting cast might not be as bare as L.A.'s 5-10 record would suggest.
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