Patriots vs. Broncos: Updated Odds, Money Line, Spread, Props to Watch for SNF
The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos meet in a special Christmas Eve edition of Sunday Night Football in Week 16.
It isn't exactly one of the best matchups we've been treated to, but the fate of the Denver Broncos season is in the balance. A win for the 7-7 squad would keep their playoff hopes alive, while a loss to the 3-11 Pats would all but eliminate any hope of making the postseason.
It could be the final days of the Bill Belichick era in New England. The Patriots are drifting toward a top-two selection in the NFL draft which could herald a new era led by a new quarterback and coach.
For the Broncos, it's about finishing the season on a strong note in Sean Payton's first season.
Here's a look at the Week 16 matchup from a betting perspective, including some props worth considering.
Schedule, Odds and Spread
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Date: Sunday, December 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Watch: NFL Network
Moneyline: Broncos -360 ($360 wager wins $100); Patriots +285 ($100 wager wins $285)
Spread: Broncos -7.5
Over/Under: 35.5
Odds from DraftKings.
Game Preview and Prediction
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The Broncos are heavy favorites in this one, but buyer beware: Denver is just 5-8-1 this season against the spread. Granted, the Patriots are even worse at 3-10-1 so neither of these sides have really garnered goodwill from bettors.
Denver has all of the end-of-season advantages. They are the more talented team and they still have something to play for. Their playoff odds might be slim, but they are still in it and a win gets them to next week with a shot.
On the flip side, the Patriots have little motivation other than the players auditioning to be part of the roster next season.
Both teams are dealing with injury issues that should have an impact on the game.
The Patriots have already ruled out three key players. Safety Jabrill Peppers, running back Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster are already listed as out on the injury report with another nine being listed as questionable.
The Broncos will also have three listed as out. Nik Bonitto is still working through a knee injury while Greg Dulcich is still working his way back from injured reserve. The other one is reserve tackle Alex Palczewski.
The question here is really what version of the Broncos show up? They have been one of the league's most unpredictable teams. After starting 1-5 they were able to go on a five-game winning streak to get their record to 6-5.
Unfortunately, some of that momentum has worn out and the defense that helped lead the way in that winning streak is coming off a game in which they gave up 42 points in a blowout loss to the Lions last week.
On the other hand, the Patriots offense probably isn't the one to keep that trend going. They have at least graduated to scoring double-digit points in the last two games with Bailey Zappe taking over at quarterback, but they are 30th in offensive EPA per play.
Ultimately, the Broncos defense has shown enough this season to believe they'll shut down a Patriots offense that doesn't have Stevenson or Smith-Schuster.
Prediction: Broncos -7.5, Under
Props to Consider
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Javonte Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)
A two-catch performance against the Lions last week probably kept this line from jumping up a reception. Williams has covered this line in six of his last eight games with losses to the Lions and Minnesota Vikings as the only exceptions.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have given up seven receptions to running backs in each of their last two tames. Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon have all had three or more catches in the last two weeks.
Courtland Sutton Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The only real concern on this bet is the blowout potential. If the Broncos are winning big by the half then they are more likely to lean on the ground game and Sutton could have an uncharacteristically quiet game. However, half of Sutton's receptions this season have come in the first and second quarter so it isn't like they've ignored him early in games.
As long as Sutton sees his usual target volume he's going to crush this line. He's covered it in six consecutive games. He's had more than 60 yards in five consecutive games. The Patriots secondary has been shaky all season and there's no reason to think they are going to slow down Sutton all of a sudden.
DeVante Parker Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There's not a whole lot to like on the Patriots side of things. It's hard to trust this offense, but DeVante Parker has been fairly reliable since Bailey Zappe took over as quarterback. In those three games, Parker has comfortably covered this line.
Parker has had a rough season overall. He wasn't all that involved in the offense when Mac Jones was at quarterback and he missed Weeks 9 and 10 with a concussion. However, Parker taking over has brought him back to life and relevance. There aren't too many Patriots who will hit their overs, but Parker has a strong chance.
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