Rose Bowl 2024: Factors That Will Decide Alabama vs. Michigan Playoff
The Michigan Wolverines come into the Rose Bowl with the more notable rushing attack, but the Alabama Crimson Tide actually averaged more ground yards this season.
Alabama had three players record over 100 carries and at least 450 rushing yards. That element of its offense could be vital to its success or failure in the College Football Playoff semifinal on New Years' Day.
Michigan loves to control games through running back Blake Corum, but if it is taken out of its element, the Crimson Tide stand a better chance of winning the contest.
Michigan would love to run the ball 40 times to limit the number of possessions, but it may have to make some key plays through the air in order to win its first national semifinal in the playoff era.
Alabama's Success on the Ground
1 of 2
Alabama averages 172.7 rushing yards per game.
The Crimson Tide gained 10.9 more yards on the ground than Michigan in the regular season, and while that may not seem like a massive difference, that statistic proves they can match Michigan at the Big Ten side's biggest strength.
Alabama ran the ball 41 times for 114 yards in the SEC Championship Game win over the Georgia Bulldogs.
The commitment to the run allowed the Crimson Tide to possess the ball for three more minutes than the previous top-ranked team in the CFB Playoff rankings.
Alabama needs to execute at an even higher level on the ground in the Rose Bowl to enforce its will on the contest and to keep Michigan from controlling play with the same strategy.
The potential return of Jase McClellan on New Years' Day could make Alabama's rushing attack tougher to stop.
McClellan is dealing with a foot injury that he suffered in the Iron Bowl win over the Auburn Tigers.
"He's getting better. It's probably still too early to tell. He's getting ready to do some dry-land running and some things, so he'll progress through the rest of the week and we'll see where he lands by the end of the week," Alabama head coach Nick Saban said, per the Tuscaloosa News' Chase Goodbread.
The senior running back produced two 100-yard games against Top 25 foes and averages 4.8 yards per carry.
His potential return combined with the confidence Roydell Williams gained from the Georgia game and with Jalen Milroe's mobility in the pocket could hurt the sixth-best rushing defense in the FBS.
If Alabama executes its ground game well, it could keep Michigan off the field and lead to a dominant offensive performance.
J.J. McCarthy's Experience
2 of 2
J.J. McCarthy is arguably the most important player in the Rose Bowl.
The Michigan quarterback will make his third CFB Playoff semifinal appearance on New Years' Day.
McCarthy threw for 131 on a 7-for-17 passing day in relief of Cade McNamara two years ago against Georgia. He passed for 343 yards and two touchdowns in last year's defeat to the TCU Horned Frogs.
McCarthy was also picked off on two occasions by the Horned Frogs in the 51-45 defeat. He only has two multi-pick games in his career. The other was an unusual three-interception game against the Bowling Green Falcons in September.
The second-year quarter rarely makes mistakes, and although he may not be asked to throw the ball a ton, he must come up with some big plays when asked.
McCarthy did that in both of Michigan's Top 25 Big Ten wins over the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions.
There is belief that he can once again support the dominant rushing attack, and in this instance, use his experience to his advantage against a tough Alabama defense.
Alabama has two NFL prospects at cornerback in Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold.
McCarthy needs to get the best of that matchup in order to advance Michigan to its first CFB Playoff final.
If the mistakes show up again, Alabama could produce points with a short field and control the contest in a similar fashion to the SEC Championship Game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
