NFL Picks Week 16: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Week 16 got started with the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. The Rams were favored to win, and they did, though they allowed the Saints to make it interesting at the end.
Los Angeles led 27-7 entering the fourth quarter, but New Orleans went on a 15-3 run in the final period to give the Rams a scare. The Rams held on to win, at least, which hasn't always been the case for favorites this season—especially in prime-time games.
There are a few other favorites we trust over the final 15 games of the week. Let's dive into our favorite matchups and examine the latest lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Packers -4 at Panthers
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The Carolina Panthers picked up their second win of the season in Week 15, outlasting the Atlanta Falcons in a 9-7 contest. While it was far from an impressive performance, it was big for rookie quarterback Bryce Young, who finished 18-of-24 for 167 yards.
"Really, we're just all happy. There's a lot of joy for sure," Young told reporters after the win.
Though Young wasn't statistically impressive, he played arguably the most efficient game of his pro career against Atlanta. The Green Bay Packers should be a little worried about a repeat performance, given their defensive struggles over the past two weeks.
However, Green Bay has the more experienced quarterback in Jordan Love and the better collection of pass-catchers—though Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are dealing with injuries.
Expect Green Bay's defense to respond with a better effort—if it doesn't Joe Barry's job could be in jeopardy—and for the Packers to attack Carolina's 20th-ranked run defense. This should be a big game for Aaron Jones, who finally appears to be getting healthier.
The 6-8 Packers are still mathematically alive in the playoff race. They should play like it against an overmatched Panthers team and win by a touchdown.
Buccaneers -2 Versus Jaguars
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The Packers defense got torched by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, thanks to the resurgent play of quarterback Baker Mayfield. The 28-year-old has regained his confidence and forged a rapport with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a strong Buccaneers receiver corps.
Against the Packers, Mayfield threw for 381 yards, four touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
While the Bucs were originally underdogs against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars, that has changed with Trevor Lawrence still in the concussion protocol. The Jags are likely to lean on C.J. Beathard instead of Lawrence this week, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Officially, Lawrence is questionable.
Tampa will have a big edge in the quarterback department if it's Mayfield versus Beathard, but that's only part of the reason why the Bucs are an enticing pick. Jacksonville's lackluster pass defense is the other.
The Jaguars rank 25th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 29th in passing yards allowed and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed.
With Mayfield doing a great job getting the ball out and spreading it around, Jacksonville's defense is likely to struggle. That means the Jags' best chance of winning will be via an offensive track meet. Without Lawrence, that's not an ideal path to victory.
Bears -4 Versus Cardinals
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The Chicago Bears came oh-so-close to beating the Cleveland Browns on the road in Week 15. Now, they'll be back home to face the three-win Arizona Cardinals.
Expect Chicago to hold serve at home for two big reasons. For starters, the Bears defense is playing at an extremely high level right now. It snagged three interceptions against the Browns and probably would have put the game away if the offense hadn't consistently stalled and given Cleveland more chances.
That isn't likely to happen against a bad Cardinals defense. Arizona ranks 30th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 25th in yards per carry allowed.
The Bears should be able to attack Arizona's run defense with Roschon Johnson and the ground game, something they couldn't do against Cleveland. Chicago will be able to sustain drives and wear down the Cardinals D, which is reason No. 2 to like the Bears here.
Playing ball-control and strong defense a tactic that the Bears used to upset the Detroit Lions a couple of weeks ago, and with all due respect to Arizona, the Lions are a far superior offensive team.
Quarterback Justin Fields will do enough as a scrambler to keep the Cardinals off-balance while hitting the occasional big play in the passing game. That, along with another strong defensive performance, should allow Chicago to win convincingly.
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