10 MLB Prospects with a Clear Path to Start on Opening Day
Last season, eventual AL and NL Rookie of the Year winners Gunnar Henderson (BAL) and Corbin Carroll (ARI) both started the season on their team's Opening Day roster.
Hunter Brown (HOU), Triston Casas (BOS), Yainer Diaz (HOU), Josh Jung (TEX), Logan O'Hoppe (LAA), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), Miguel Vargas (LAD), Anthony Volpe (NYY) and Jordan Walker (STL) were among the other notable prospects who broke camp with a roster spot.
Which up-and-comers could we see right out of the gates in 2024?
Ahead we've highlighted 10 prospects with a clear path to starting on Opening Day, based on current roster construction and their proximity to the majors.
A player must maintain rookie eligibility to be considered for inclusion. That means no more than 130 big league at-bats for position players, 50 innings for pitchers or 45 days on the active roster.
Honorable Mentions
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LHP Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
The Giants have Logan Webb and veterans Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling, who both struggled in 2023, as the only players locked into spots in the starting rotation. That leaves Harrison as one of the leading in-house candidates to fill out the back of the staff after he posted a 4.15 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 34.2 innings, but he could stand to spend more time refining his command in the minors if they do add a few more arms.
1B/OF Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles
With a starting outfield of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander already in place and sluggers Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn poised to once again split time at first base and designated hitter, it's hard to see a clear path to playing time for Kjerstad, at least to open the year. With a .904 OPS and 58 extra-base hits in the upper levels of the minors last year, he could eventually force the team's hand.
OF Jakob Marsee, San Diego Padres
Marsee won Arizona Fall League MVP honors by hitting .391/.509/.707 with 18 extra-base hits and 18 steals in 24 games. The 22-year-old should get a long look this spring and could find his way into a starting role after Juan Soto and Trent Grisham were traded to the New York Yankees. He has just 16 games played above the High-A level in the minors, though.
SS Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Guardians
Rocchio hit .280/.367/.421 with 46 extra-base hits and 25 steals in 116 games at Triple-A last season, and he has the highest ceiling of any of Cleveland's in-house options to fill the vacancy at shortstop. However, it might be Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman who get the first shot at winning the job this spring.
RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves
The Braves plan to stretch out Reynaldo López this spring to potentially fill the No. 5 spot in the rotation behind Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. If that doesn't work out, Smith-Shawver is part of a group vying for a roster spot that also includes Huascar Ynoa, Dylan Dodd, Darius Vines and Allan Winans.
SS Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals
Winn is the future at shortstop for the Cardinals, and the versatility of Tommy Edman means that he could take over as the everyday starter at any time without the team having to make a move to clear a path. The 21-year-old is already a Gold Glove-caliber defender, but after hitting just .172/.230/.238 for a 29 OPS+ in 137 plate appearances he might head back to Triple-A for a bit more seasoning.
Don't Rule Out...
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SS Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
The past few seasons we've seen shortstops Jeremy Peña (HOU), Anthony Volpe (NYY) and Ezequiel Tovar (COL) all make their MLB debut on Opening Day en route to some early success in the big leagues. Holliday could be the next in line, but he will have to earn his spot since the Orioles don't necessarily have a glaring hole at the position. The 20-year-old phenom still only has 36 games at Double-A and 18 games at Triple-A under his belt.
IF Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks
It looked like Lawlar had a clear path to playing time somewhere on the left side of the D-backs infield before the team acquired third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Seattle Mariners. Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo hit just .214/.322/.297 during the second half last season after making the All-Star team, so it's not out of the question to think Lawlar could push him into a utility role with a strong spring.
IF Brooks Lee, Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been entertaining trade offers for Jorge Polanco for the better part of a year now, and if they do finally pull the trigger on trading him, it could open up a path for Lee to win the starting second base job. The versatility of Edouard Julian and Royce Lewis also means the club could get creative if he forces their hand this spring. The No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 draft hit .275/.347/.461 with 39 doubles, 16 home runs and 84 RBI in 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023.
RHP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
If the Pirates want to generate some buzz, there would be no better way to do it than to include Skenes on the Opening Day roster. The LSU standout and No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft has the potential to be a generational talent on the mound and there is little doubt he has the stuff to get MLB hitters out right now. The question is how aggressive a rebuilding team wants to be with a prized prospect.
SS/3B Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
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Opening Day Role: Starting SS
The uncertainty surrounding Wander Franco amid an investigation into allegations of his relationships with underage girls leaves a giant question mark at the shortstop position for the Tampa Bay Rays. At this point, it's fair to assume he will not be part of the team's Opening Day roster.
That clears a path for Junior Caminero, who is squarely in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball heading into the 2024 season following a breakout campaign. The 20-year-old made his MLB debut in September after hitting .324/.384/.591 with 55 extra-base hits in 117 games between High-A and Double-A, and he went 8-for-34 with a double and a home run down the stretch to earn a spot on the team's postseason roster.
He made three starts at third base and two at shortstop after he was promoted to the majors, and he could see regular action bouncing between the two spots, similar to the role Gunnar Henderson played for the Baltimore Orioles in 2023.
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OF Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
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Opening Day Role: Starting LF
It feels like a misnomer to call Evan Carter a "prospect" after the role he played for the Texas Rangers during their run to the 2023 World Series title, but technically speaking he is still a prospect.
The 21-year-old hit .306/.413/.645 with 10 extra-base hits in 75 plate appearances after making his MLB debut on Sept. 8, leaving him well short of exceeding the rookie eligibility limits. Of course, he then went on to hit .300/.417/.500 with 18 hits, 10 extra-base hits, 10 walks and nine runs scored in 72 plate appearances during the postseason while hitting in the middle of a stacked Texas lineup.
He might be the safest bet of any player on this list to be part of his team's Opening Day lineup, and he will almost certainly open the 2024 season as the heavy favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors.
OF Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
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Opening Day Role: Starting CF
The Milwaukee Brewers have no reason to play the service-time game with Jackson Chourio now that he has been signed to an eight-year, $82 million extension, setting a record for the largest deal given to a player with zero MLB experience.
The 19-year-old exploded onto the top-prospect scene with a breakout 2022 season, and then solidified his status as a potential future superstar by hitting .283/.338/.467 with 26 doubles, 22 home runs, 91 RBI, 88 runs scored and 44 steals in 128 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
His offensive game is what grabs headlines, but he also uses his 70-grade speed extremely well in center field where he should add significant value defensively.
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
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Opening Day Role: Starting CF
Even if the Chicago Cubs strike a deal to bring back free-agent Cody Bellinger, there is still a path to playing time for Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field after Bellinger played primarily first base during the second half of the 2023 season.
Widely regarded as the best defensive outfielder in the minors, Crow-Armstrong has taken his prospect status to another level with the continued development of his offensive game since joining the Cubs organization in the deal that sent Javier Báez to the New York Mets at the 2021 trade deadline.
The 21-year-old hit .283/.365/.511 with 26 doubles, 20 home runs, 82 RBI, 98 runs scored and 37 steals in 107 games in the upper levels of the minors last year. He went 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts after making his MLB debut on Sept. 11, but that small sample size does little to cloud his promising future.
SS Darell Hernaiz, Oakland Athletics
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Opening Day Role: Starting SS
The only player on this list who was not part of the latest B/R Top 100 prospect list, Darell Hernaiz has the benefit of being a low-cost shortstop option for an Oakland Athletics team that cares about saving money above all else.
The 22-year-old was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles last offseason in the deal that sent Cole Irvin the other way, and he hit .321/.386/.456 with 32 doubles, nine home runs, 71 RBI, 87 runs scored and 13 steals in 131 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
The A's added him to the 40-man roster in November, and while his average arm might be a better fit at second base, he has the quickness to handle shortstop with Zack Gelof penciled in at the keystone. Regardless of where he fits on the Oakland infield, he is ready for a look in the majors.
2B/3B Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers
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Opening Day Role: Starting 3B
Colt Keith offers a profile similar to New York Mets up-and-comer Brett Baty entering the 2023 season as an MLB-ready bat with huge offensive upside and no clear landing spot defensively.
The 22-year-old split his time between second base and third base in the minors last year, and the Detroit Tigers don't have a clear everyday option at either position. He doesn't have the quickness to stay at second base long-term, and Jace Jung is the future there anyway, so third base is his most likely future home, though left field is also a potential option.
After hitting .306/.380/.552 with 38 doubles, 27 home runs, 101 RBI and 88 runs scored in 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he can make an immediate impact at the plate for a Tigers team that ranked among the worst offenses in baseball in 2023.
SS Marco Luciano, San Francisco Giants
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Opening Day Role: Starting SS
After 12 straight Opening Day games with Brandon Crawford penciled in as the starting shortstop, the San Francisco Giants will have a new player manning the position to kick off the 2024 season.
Marco Luciano has been one of the team's top prospects since he was signed for a $2.6 million bonus as part of the 2018 international class, and his 55-hit, 65-power offensive profile gives him the upside to be a franchise cornerstone.
The 22-year-old had a .777 OPS with 14 doubles, 15 home runs and 40 RBI in 74 games in the upper levels of the minors last year, and he went 9-for-39 with three doubles in limited MLB action. It might take him some time to fully tap into his vast offensive potential, but the shortstop job is his to lose in 2024.
1B Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
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Opening Day Role: Starting 1B/DH
The Cleveland Guardians pulled from their wealth of controllable starting pitching to acquire Kyle Manzardo from the Tampa Bay Rays last summer, sending Aaron Civale the other way in a one-for-one swap.
Manzardo, 23, established himself as a top prospect during the 2022 season when he hit .327/.426/.617 with 26 doubles, 22 home runs and 81 RBI in 93 games between High-A and Double-A. He didn't quite produce at the same level in 2023, but he finished on a high note by hitting .272/.340/.565 with seven doubles, six home runs and 19 RBI in 22 games in the Arizona Fall League.
Josh Naylor has been a popular name on the rumor mill this offseason, but even if Cleveland doesn't trade him, there could be a role for Manzardo in the Opening Day lineup as either the starting first baseman or the designated hitter.
3B Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
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Opening Day Role: Starting 3B
It's going to be difficult for the Cincinnati Reds to justify not giving Noelvi Marte a starting role heading into 2024 after he hit .316/.366/.456 with 10 extra-base hits in 123 plate appearances in his first MLB action last year.
The 22-year-old made 26 of his 30 starts at third base, and that's where he profiles best defensively, though he has also seen time at second base and shortstop during his minor league development.
A Jonathan India trade has looked inevitable since the offseason started, and remains a very real possibility between now and Opening Day, but even if the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year stays put, there will be a regular role for Marte to start the year.
1B Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
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Opening Day Role: Starting 1B
How's this for a player being fast-tracked to the majors:
- July 9: Nolan Schanuel is selected No. 11 overall in the 2023 MLB draft after hitting .447/.615/.868 with 18 doubles, 19 home runs and 64 RBI in 59 games during his junior season at Florida Atlantic.
- July 13: He agrees to a $5.3 million slot-level bonus and officially signs with the Angels.
- July 21: Makes his pro debut in rookie ball.
- July 26: Promoted to Single-A.
- July 29: Promoted to Double-A.
- Aug. 18: MLB debut
The 21-year-old went on to post a 103 OPS+ in 132 plate appearances in the majors, tallying more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) en route to a .402 on-base percentage.
With Jared Walsh electing free agency after he was outrighted off the 40-man roster in October, Schanuel has a clear path to be the Opening Day starter at first base as he continues to settle into pro ball.
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