NFL Picks Week 16 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Week 16 is set to provide NFL fans with a fantastic slate of fun and meaningful action.
The week kicks off with the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night. These two 7-7 squads are firmly in the NFC playoff race, and Thursday's opener should carry a postseason feel.
The week will end with a potential Super Bowl preview between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers—teams that lead their respective conferences.
In between, we'll see several teams facing must-win scenarios, and we'll probably see a few contests decided by strong individual performances. Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite matchups and top player props to consider for Week 16 based on the mid-week odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Kyren Williams Over 91.5 Rushing Yards
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Our favorite prop for Thursday night involves Rams running back Kyren Williams and his rushing-yardage total.
Williams has emerged as a high-volume runner for Los Angeles recently, which gives him a solid floor against the Saints. Williams has carried the ball at least 20 times in four of his last five outings, and he's topped 110 rushing yards four times during that span.
Over his last five games, Williams' low rushing total was 88 yards.
Los Angeles should look to involve Williams and the ground game throughout its matchup with the Saints. While the Rams can certainly turn to Matthew Stafford and the passing game if needed, a run-first approach is the most logical.
New Orleans ranks fifth in net yards per pass attempt allowed but only 27th in yards per carry allowed. Unless the Rams fall behind early and abandon the run, Williams should hit the over for this prop. He's -130(bet $130 to win $100) to do so.
Joe Mixon Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
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Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon is -120 to hit the over on his rushing prop, and he feels like a safe bet to do it.
For one, the Bengals may or may not have star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That could cause Cincinnati to lean a little more on the run than they otherwise might.
Secondly, while Jake Browning has been more than serviceable at quarterback, it still makes sense to support him with a strong ground game. The Bengals haven't consistently done that—they've failed to reach 100 rushing yards in two of Browning's four starts—but against T.J. Watt and the Steelers, it's the logical approach.
Lastly, the Steelers just aren't great against the ground game. They rank 20th in yards per carry allowed and 22nd in rushing yards allowed.
The last time Mixon faced Pittsburgh, he rushed for only 16 yards on eight carries. Expect head coach Zac Taylor to get him much more involved in Round 2.
James Cook over 23.5 Receiving Yards
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The Buffalo Bills offense has seen a resurgence under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Running back James Cook has been a big reason why.
Brady has done a tremendous job of getting Cook involved in both the running and the passing games. Over the past four games, Cook has had no fewer than 29 receiving yards and has averaged just under 53 receiving yards.
Expect Cook to approach his average against the Los Angeles Chargers—both because it's part of the game plan and because of the matchup.
The Chargers have allowed 4.2 yards per carry and 6.5 net yards per pass attempt this season. They also rank 30th in passing yards allowed. Attacking the L.A. defense with Josh Allen and the passing game makes the most sense for Buffalo on the road.
With an average of just under five targets over the past four games, Cook should again be a big part of the passing plan. He's -140 to hit the over here.
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Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions
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Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has played a prominent role in the Detroit Lions' passing plans all season, and that's not about to change.
With 71 receptions and 758 receiving yards, the Iowa product is within striking distance of the rookie receptions and yardage records for a tight end—set by Keith Jackson and Mike Ditka, respectively.
While we probably won't see LaPorta reach either record against the Minnesota Vikings this week, we do expect him to hit the over (-120) for this receptions prop. LaPorta had five receptions, including three touchdown grabs, in last week's win over the Denver Broncos.
On the season, LaPorta has had five or more receptions eight times and has averaged five catches per game. Minnesota has a solid pass defense—ranked 11th in net yards per pass attempt allowed—so the Lions should look to get Jared Goff easy completions to his tight end.
Also, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Detroit trying to get LaPorta at least one of the records within 16 games. That could keep him getting looks, even if the Lions begin to pull away.
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