NFL Week 16 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
With Week 16 rapidly approaching, survivor-pool participants may be facing a make-or-break week. By now, most truly trustworthy teams have already been picked, and many pools are likely to be won in the coming days.
Several pools were probably busted when the Seattle Seahawks upended the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.
With participants running out of "good" teams to pick and pool championships potentially on the line, it's time to tread very, very carefully. Below, you'll find some updated advice for Week 16, using the latest odds as a guideline.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
General Survivor Tips for Week 16
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General survivor rules still apply in Week 16, meaning certain games should be avoided if possible.
On Saturday, for example, the Cincinnati Bengals will battle the Pittsburgh Steelers in a critical AFC North showdown. The Bengals are two-point favorites and have the better quarterback situation—Jake Browning has been phenomenal for Cincinnati, and the Steelers are expected to start Mason Rudolph.
However, divisional games are always tough. Pittsburgh will have home-field advantage, and the Bengals aren't expected to have Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder).
While we're on the topic of injuries, we should highlight two big ones at quarterback. Houston Texans signal-caller C.J. Stroud remains in the concussion protocol, while the Jacksonville Jaguars placed Trevor Lawrence in the protocol on Sunday night.
Houston is a 2.5-pint favorite over the visiting Cleveland Browns, while Jacksonville is a one-point road favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cleveland and Tampa are still fighting for playoff spots, though, and the injuries make these excruciatingly difficult games to even consider.
We'd also recommend avoiding Monday night's battle between the San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) and Baltimore Ravens. These are the two best teams in football, and while San Francisco is at home, we've seen a plethora of Monday-night upsets.
If, for some reason, you haven't picked the 49ers yet, next week's matchup against the Washington Commanders is far more enticing.
Trust the Buffalo Bills If Available
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The Buffalo Bills have been a tricky team to trust recently because of a very tough schedule. Over the past month, the Bills have been at the Eagles, had their bye, visited the Kansas City Chiefs and hosted the Dallas Cowboys.
Buffalo has won two straight since the bye, though, and it beat Dallas in convincing 31-10 fashion.
If you waited until after Buffalo's brutal stretch to pick the Bills, now is the time to lean on Josh Allen and Co. The Bills are set to face the Los Angeles Chargers, who played so poorly in Week 15 that both the head coach and general manager were fired.
Will Los Angeles produce a better effort under interim coach Giff Smith? Perhaps, but its 30th-ranked pass defense still makes Buffalo an enticing pick.
Is still there still risk with Buffalo? Of course. We've seen some inconsistent play out of the Bills this season, and traveling to L.A. can be difficult for East Coast teams. However, Los Angeles doesn't exactly provide a massive home-field advantage, and the Bills are in desperation mode.
Despite an 8-6 record, the Bills are on the outside of the wild-card race and cannot afford another loss. They're 10.5-point favorites for a reason. Buffalo isn't likely to lose.
Consider the Denver Broncos as a Plan B
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Other relatively "safe" options this week include the Chiefs (10-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders) and Eagles (10.5-point favorites against the New York Giants). If those teams are unavailable, the Denver Broncos represent a solid alternative.
Are the Broncos a lock to beat the New England Patriots? They are not. They fell flat against the Detroit Lions in Week 15, and the Patriots have shown plenty of fight since making the switch to Bailey Zappe at quarterback.
However, Denver still holds a strong home-field advantage, and Sean Payton has done a remarkable job of turning his defense around in-season.
The Patriots don't boast the collection of skill players that Detroit has, and New England is likely to struggle against a Broncos team that hasn't lost at home since Week 5.
While Denver's offensive results have remained inconsistent, and the Patriots do have a stout dense, Payton should get enough out of Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams to claim his eighth victory.
The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites heading into mid-week.
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