NFL Odds Week 16: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
The Seattle Seahawks upset the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, and at this point, no one should truly be surprised.
We've seen regular upsets in 2023, and we've seen a lot of them on Monday nights. Last week, the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants won as underdogs. The week before, Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals won as road dogs.
While we're not as confident about the Baltimore Ravens knocking off the San Francisco 49ers next Monday night, we do expect to see a few upsets in Week 16. Let's examine some of our favorite matchups and the latest odds.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Indianapolis Colts +1 at Atlanta Falcons
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The Indianapolis Colts were favored against the Atlanta Falcons early in the week, but a quarterback change in Atlanta has shifted the line. The Falcons have decided to bench Desmond Ridder in favor of Taylor Heinicke.
"We have to do what's best for this team right now," head coach Arthur Smith said, per ESPN's Michael Rothstein.
Now feels like a great time to get in on Indianapolis before the line potential changes back in the Colts' favor. That might happen because, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, there's a chance that star running back Jonathan Taylor (thumb) will return to face Atlanta.
With or without Taylor, the Colts should be able to steal a win against the Falcons. Gardner Minshew is playing at a higher level than either Ridder or Heinicke, and Indianapolis has a palpable coaching advantage.
Shane Steichen has the Colts believing in themselves, and he's done a tremendous job of maximizing his roster depth. Expect the Colts offense to establish a rhythm and a defense that has now recorded a turnover in 19 straight games to put this one away.
Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets
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The Washington Commanders finally turned to journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett during Week 15's loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Brissett finished 8-of-10 for 124 yards and two touchdowns.
Washington plans to go back to Sam Howell this week, but it won't be a shock to see a mix of both quarterbacks.
The potential of another Brissett game is part of the reason why we like the Commanders to cover against the New York Jets this week. The other reason is the laughable effort we saw from the Jets on Sunday.
New York played with zero intensity on either side of the ball, essentially rolling over to the Miami Dolphins in a 30-0 loss. The Jets also lost quarterback Zach Wilson to a concussion in Week 15, meaning we could see more of Trevor Siemian against the Commanders.
Washington's pass defense is one of the worst in the league, but the Jets don't exactly have a quarterback who can take full advantage. Both teams are out of playoff contention, so the winner will likely be the team that wants it more.
Right now, Washington feels like that team.
Las Vegas Raiders +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
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The Kansas City Chiefs found an offensive rhythm against a good New England Patriots defense in Week 15 and ended up winning by 10 on the road. They'll be back home this week against a Las Vegas Raiders team they've beaten six straight times.
However this is a large line for any divisional game, especially considering what we saw from the Raiders last Thursday night.
Las Vegas showed that it has bought into interim coach Antonio Pierce during a 63-21 rout of the Los Angeles Chargers. Aidan O'Connell and the offense played an extremely efficient game—albeit against a bad Chargers pass defense—while Las Vegas' defense continued the strong play it has showcased under Pierce.
Will the Raiders play as flawlessly in Kansas City? Probably not. If, however, their opportunistic defense can keep forcing turnovers, they'll have a chance to keep this one close.
Las Vegas did that for a half in the first meeting before Kansas City pulled away and won by two touchdowns. Expect the Raiders to do a better job of adjusting in the rematch and forcing Kansas City to earn their 10th victory.
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