NFL Week 16 Odds: Building the Best Parlays from Early Spreads, Lines and Over/Unders
Week 15 was another run one that saw three more teams punch their tickets to the NFL postseason. The Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles joined the San Francisco 49ers as the league's only playoff teams with three weeks left.
The New Orleans Saints, who will kick off Week 16 by visiting the Los Angeles Rams, are still in the playoff mix and will have plenty of play for on Thursday. Monday night's Week 16 finale will pit the league's two best teams—the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers—against one another.
Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite matchups of Week 16 to build three separate parlays based on the early lines and over/unders.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Three-Game Parlay
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Bengals -2.5 at Steelers
Bears -4 Versus Cardinals
Bills -10.5 at Chargers
It's hard to even consider picking against the Cincinnati Bengals at this point. Jake Browning has been a revelation at quarterback in Joe Burrow's stead, and Cincinnati has won three straight against playoff-caliber opponents.
It's worth noting, however, that Browning's first start resulted in a loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's also worth noting that star receiver Ja'Marr Chase is likely to miss the game with a separated shoulder, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Still, the Bengals are playing markedly better ball than Pittsburgh right now. The Steelers stumbled on both sides of the ball in Week 15, and quarterback Mitch Trubisky was ultimately benched for Mason Rudolph.
With Kenny Pickett not expected to return until Week 17, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Bengals should be able to outlast the Steelers in their rematch.
We'd also expect the Chicago Bears to outlast the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. Arizona ran for over 200 yards against the San Francisco 49ers and managed to keep it close for a bit, but Chicago's defense smothers against the run.
The Bears are stout up front, can get after the quarterback and are opportunistic enough to secure takeaways in bunches. Justin Fields has played like an above-average starter over the back half of the season, and he'll make plays against Arizona's 25th-ranked defense.
Toss in home-field advantage, and Chicago feels like a lock to win by more than a field goal.
Expect the Buffalo Bills to win by even more than that. They're playing some of the best football in the NFL right now, and they're up against a dreadful Los Angeles Chargers pass defense.
It should surprise exactly no one to see Buffalo win by three sores this weekend.
Single-Game Parlay
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Bills -10.5 at Chargers
Bills -750 (bet $700 to win $100) to Win
Bills and Chargers Over 42.5 Points
Bills quarterback Josh Allen didn't do a whole lot in the passing game against Dallas, finishing 7-of-15 for 94 yards and a touchdown in a 31-10 blowout.
"I felt like the kid that didn't do anything in the class project and got an A," Allen told after the game, per Henry McKenna of Fox Sports.
Instead, the Bills rode running back James Cook, Allen's legs (24 yards, 1 TD) and an energized defense to run away from the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. This Saturday, Allen may be a little more involved against L.A.'s 30th-ranked pass defense.
Look, for a team like Buffalo, making the trip to Los Angeles is tough. However, the Bills are currently out of the playoff mix and cannot afford a loss the rest of the way. They'll be focused and motivated, while the Chargers probably won't.
Los Angeles was lifeless in Thursday's 63-21 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The team may play with a little more pride under interim coach Giff Smith, but L.A. will still be without quarterback Justin Herbert.
It'll be hard for the Chargers to keep pace with Buffalo, and it wouldn't be a shock to see the Bills win by three scores here. It also wouldn't be a surprise to see Buffalo approach the game's over under by themselves.
Don't expect Los Angeles to surrender 60-plus points again, but Buffalo could easily score into the 40s.
The Chargers have allowed an average of 24.6 points on the season, and they've allowed 30 or more points four times.
As long as L.A. can put a handful of points on the board, this one should hit the over with relative ease.
Over/Under Parlay
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Bills and Chargers Over 42.5 Points
Browns and Texans Over 42.5 Points
Jaguars and Buccaneers Over 43.5 Points
We expect the Bills and Chargers to hit their over, and we expect the Browns and Houston Texans to do the same in their matchup.
The Texans defense has been a stout unit for most of the season, but it has rarely shut down the opposition. The Tennessee Titans mustered a mere 16 points on Sunday, and seven of them came on a pick-six.
However, the Titans are a familiar opponent for Houston, while the Browns are not. Cleveland only reached 20 points against the Bears, but it had to overcome three critical interceptions from Joe Flacco.
While the Browns defense is one of the better units in the NFL, it has been much better at home. This game will be played in Houston, and the Texans have a good chance of getting C.J. Stroud (concussion) back under center.
While this should largely be a defensive battle, there's too much passing potency in a potential Flacco-Stroud matchup to trust the under.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup has a similar feel, though poor pass defenses are the culprit there. Jacksonville ranks 28th in passing yards allowed, while Tampa ranks 31st.
The Jags only scored seven points against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, but they left a lot of points on the field. Two missed field goals and a blatant red-zone error just before halftime took at least nine points off the board.
The Buccaneers racked up 34 points in Week 15, thanks to the precision passing of Baker Mayfield. The 2018 first overall pick has reemerged as a force with Tampa Bay—he posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating on Sunday—and he'll help provide one of the week's most thrilling quarterback matchups, if Trevor Lawrence plays.
Lawrence was placed in the concussion protocol following Sunday's game, but if clears protocol in time to play, this over/under is going to go up. If he can't, Jacksonville should still find enough offense with C.J. Beathard and a bevy of talented pass-catchers.
Given the players and the defenses involved, the current over/under is entirely too low.
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