College Football Picks: College Football Bowl Game Picks, Part 1
Are you ready for three straight weeks of football?
Thanks to a couple of assists from the NFL, we've reached the most wonderful time of the year on the gridiron. Let's be clear, though: the 2023 college football bowl season shoulders the heaviest burden—a great responsibility, to be sure, but someone must do it.
Part 1 of B/R's predictions covers the games from Dec. 16-23, which features several of the season's best Group of Five programs.
For the nostalgia crowd, Cal, UCLA and Utah are playing their last contests as Pac-12 teams, too.
The picks are based on the best information available, as of publish. It's possible, even if unlikely, that opt-out decisions, injuries or transfers will be reported in the days following the release of these predictions.
Dec. 16 Bowls
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Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-3), 11 a.m. ET
It's only fitting to begin with a transfer-affected game, right? During the regular season, I would've picked Ohio with no hesitation. However, quarterback Kurtis Rourke, top running backs Sieh Bangura and O'Shaan Allison, key receivers Miles Cross and Tyler Walton and All-MAC linebacker Keye Thompson each entered the portal.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 23, Ohio 20
New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State (8-4) vs. Louisiana (6-6), 2:15 p.m. ET
After a spectacular three-year run, Louisiana has slipped lately—and the second half of the 2023 campaign was particularly rough. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, is aiming to finish its debut FBS season with a heat-turning nine-win record. In a clash of opposing styles, Rich Rodriguez's fast-paced philosophy wins out.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Louisiana 27
Cure Bowl: Miami (Ohio) (11-2) vs. Appalachian State (8-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
After a leg injury ended Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert's season, Aveon Smith guided the RedHawks to an impressive MAC title. He's since decided to transfer, though. Appalachian State has a flawed defense but should be able to slow a third-string quarterback.
Prediction: Appalachian State 20, Miami 16
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State (10-4) vs. Fresno State (8-4), 5:45 p.m. ET
Late losses to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State diminished the shine on Fresno State's once-promising season. I'd like to think the September version of the team suddenly reappears, but that seems like wishful thinking. The defense allowed no more than 366 yards in the first six outings and no less than 415 in the last six. New Mexico State wins a second game in Albuquerque this year.
Prediction: NMSU 31, Fresno State 23
LA Bowl: UCLA (7-5) vs. Boise State (8-5), 7:30 p.m. ET
Similar to Miami, Boise State lost Maddux Madsen to injury, won a Mountain West title with Taylen Green and lost him to transfer. Bowl season, baby! Now, UCLA slumped down the stretch—save for a great win over USC—so a blowout feels unlikely. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is an absolute star, too. Tempting as it may be thanks to Boise State's scorching finish, siding with a true freshman third-stringer is too much for me.
Prediction: UCLA 24, Boise State 21
Independence Bowl: Cal (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (6-6), 9:15 p.m. ET
Cal offensive coordinator Jake Spavital left for Baylor, so an inconsistent scoring attack has yet another variable to manage. That pushes me toward Texas Tech, which played well defensively in November outside of a disastrous trip to playoff-bound Texas.
Prediction: Texas Tech 30, Cal 24
Dec. 18-22 Bowls
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Famous Toastery Bowl: Western Kentucky (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (6-6), Dec. 18, 2:30 p.m. ET
No offense surrendered more sacks than Old Dominion, so it's pretty darn incredible the Monarchs even reached a bowl. Western Kentucky doesn't have an especially disruptive defense, to be sure, but ODU's scoring limitations are a glaring issue. WKU's offense underperformed in 2023 and still averaged 29.8 points.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 33, Old Dominion 20
Frisco Bowl: UTSA (8-4) vs. Marshall (6-6), Dec. 19, 9 p.m. ET
This should be an easy prediction. Marshall had a pair of late 30-point outbursts to hit six wins, but four losses in the back half of the campaign included no more than nine points. UTSA, conversely, averaged 37.9 points after quarterback Frank Harris returned from an early injury.
Prediction: UTSA 36, Marshall 21
Boca Raton Bowl: South Florida (6-6) vs. Syracuse (6-6), Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET
In a clash between former Big East counterparts, Syracuse is facing its defensive nemesis: a mobile quarterback. Among others, Kyron Drones (Virginia Tech), Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) and Haynes King (Georgia Tech) all stressed the Orange with their mobility, and USF's Byrum Brown—a decent passer at 7.7 yards per attempt—has nine games of 40-plus rushing yards. I'll take the Bulls.
Prediction: USF 29, Syracuse 24
Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. UCF (6-6), Dec. 22, 6:30 p.m. ET
Theoretically, this should be one of the higher-scoring bowls. Each offense has averaged 31-plus points, and the defenses have yielded at least 25 per game. Both teams prefer to run the ball, though, so the clock may not actually be stopping much. UCF holds the slightest of edges due to Georgia Tech's red-zone defense, which is 115th nationally in opponent touchdown rate while UCF is 39th.
Prediction: UCF 31, Georgia Tech 23
Dec. 23 Bowls
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Birmingham Bowl: Troy (11-2) vs. Duke (7-5), Noon ET
Duke clearly has the talent to win. Considering the changes happening in Durham, however, it's a great opportunity for Troy to sneak in a Power Five victory. Duke's late-season issues stopping the run aren't reassuring for a clash with Kimani Vidal, the nation's No. 3 rusher.
Prediction: Troy 24, Duke 20
Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (6-6), Noon ET
Since I've been terrible at predicting these two programs all season, please don't listen to me. Seriously, it's not great. They are thorns in my analytical hopes and dreams. Naturally, here they are squaring off in a virtual coin flip—which officially landed on NIU. Go Huskies?
Prediction: Northern Illinois 26, Arkansas State 23
Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison (11-1) vs. Air Force (8-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
James Madison's rapid FBS excellence is a terrific story, and Air Force closed the season with a winless November. Easy, right? Well, the departures of JMU coach Curt Cignetti and quarterback Jordan McCloud have shifted expectations for this matchup. JMU still wins because of its defense, but Air Force—which has dealt with a ton of injuries and should be healthier—keeps it close.
Prediction: James Madison 20, Air Force 14
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Georgia State (6-6) vs. Utah State (6-6), 3:30 p.m. ET
I'd love the best-case scenario to appear in Boise. Utah State has a suspect defense, so the Potato Bowl could be a high-scoring affair in a hurry. But five straight losses for Georgia State—which gave up 41.8 points per game in that stretch—obviously merits a "concerning" trend.
Prediction: Utah State 38, Georgia State 28
68 Ventures Bowl: South Alabama (6-6) vs. Eastern Michigan (6-6), 7 p.m. ET
South Alabama won 10 games last season, entered 2023 as a Sun Belt favorite and wrecked Oklahoma State in September. Despite a rough finish, the Jaguars are plenty talented. They should cruise to a seventh win after EMU quarterback Austin Smith hit the transfer portal.
Prediction: South Alabama 31, Eastern Michigan 17
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (8-4) vs. Northwestern (7-5), 7:30 p.m. ET
If you like low-scoring battles, Christmas Eve-Eve is your kind of day. Along with JMU taking on Air Force, the Las Vegas Bowl pits a run-heavy Utah team opposite a shaky Northwestern offense. Both defenses had a couple awful days but typically played decently well. Perfectly juxtaposed against the glitz of Las Vegas, don't expect a flashy game. Utah wins a rock fight.
Prediction: Utah 20, Northwestern 13
Hawai'i Bowl: Coastal Carolina (7-5) vs. San Jose State (7-5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Coastal Carolina has ridden the QB carousel since an injury to Grayson McCall, who is now transferring to North Carolina State. On the other side, SJSU's Chevan Cordeiro—a sixth-year quarterback from Honolulu and a 2022 transfer from Hawaii—gets a homecoming for his college finale. Behind him and a surging rushing attack, San Jose State secures its seventh straight win after a 1-5 start.
Prediction: San Jose State 37, Coastal Carolina 27
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