NFL Picks Week 15: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
Week 14 brought several surprises, including the Tennessee Titans' stunning comeback victory over the Miami Dolphins on Monday night.
Tennessee found itself down 14 points late in the fourth quarter. However, the Titans put up 15 unanswered then stalled Miami's final drive to win the game as heavy underdogs.
According to TruMedia (h/t The Athletic's Jason Starrett), the Titans became the first team this century to erase a 14-point deficit in the final three minutes of a game and win in regulation.
It was a wild finish and not one many might have expected, though the 55 total points scored didn't exactly come as a surprise, given the offensive talent involved. Sometimes, it's easier to predict how a game will unfold than to predict who will win it.
We'll try doing exactly that here by diving into some of our favorite over/under plays for Week 15.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Chargers and Raiders Under 33.5 Points
1 of 3
It's often wise to target the over at this point in the season because offenses have started to settle and find a rhythm—last Thursday's game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers serves as a great example.
However, it's hard to see a ton of scoring in this one. The Las Vegas Raiders have improved dramatically on defense under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Their offense, however, continues to be stuck in the mud.
Last week, the Raiders held the Minnesota Vikings to a lone field goal and lost.
Expect to see Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders offense find more productivity against a bad Los Angeles Chargers pass defense this week. However, we aren't likely to see much from the Chargers offense.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a fractured finger on his throwing hand in Week 14 and has landed on injured reserve, meaning Easton Stick is set to get the start for Los Angeles. Stick is not going to boost an offense that has scored a total of just 23 points over its last three games.
This is a very low line, but fans should expect a low-scoring defensive battle on Thursday night.
49ers and Cardinals Over 48 Points
2 of 3
The San Francisco 49ers are rolling, and their offense has become a menace for opponents. Quarterback Brock Purdy has emerged as a viable MVP candidate, while Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are arguably the best skill group in football.
San Francisco has averaged 32.4 points since its Week 9 bye.
If the 49ers' offensive trend holds, it won't require a ton of scoring from the Arizona Cardinals to hit the over in this one. While San Francisco's revitalized defense does present problems, the Cardinals have gotten an offensive spark from quarterback Kyler Murray and running back James Conner.
In Week 13, Arizona dropped 24 points on a very good Steelers defense in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are also coming off the bye and have had two weeks to prepare for this NFC West showdown.
While it's hard to envision Arizona doing enough to keep this one close, we should see a fair amount of scoring from both teams. The Cardinals didn't have Murray in their first meeting with San Francisco this season, and that one ended with 51 total points.
Ravens and Jaguars Over 44 Points
3 of 3
It's not a total shock to see the points line this low for Sunday's game between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens defense has been fantastic for most of the season, and it ranks second in points allowed.
However, Baltimore's defense is not impenetrable. It allowed 31 points to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, has surrendered at least 20 points in three of its last four games and has allowed more than 30 points in two of the last four.
With Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, the Jacksonville Jaguars are perfectly capable of putting up points, and they should find several against the Ravens. However, Jacksonville's pass defense is one of the most underwhelming in the league, and it has surrendered 65 points to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco over the past two weeks.
Lamar Jackson is another viable MVP candidate, and he's become an even more dangerous passer under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. If the 38-year-old Flacco can torch the Jags for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, Jackson can put up points in bunches.
Unless Lawrence's ankle injury somehow gets worse, this one should hit the over.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
