NFL Odds Week 15: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
In what has felt like a year of NFL upsets, Week 14 provided some of the biggest. It started when the New England Patriots knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. It ended when both the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans won as underdogs on Monday.
"Including Monday night's Giants' and Titans' victories, eight underdogs won in Week 14, the most in any NFL week this season," ESPN's Adam Schefter posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
At this point, it would come as a big surprise to not see any surprises in Week 15. More upsets feel inevitable, and below, we'll dive into some of the longshots we like best, based on the early odds.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Denver Broncos +5 at Detroit Lions
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It's hard to imagine that this line won't shrink before the weekend. The Detroit Lions were one of the hottest teams in the league early in the season, but their defense has started to become a concern.
The Denver Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL now, and their defense is rolling. Denver narrowly lost to the Houston Texans two weeks ago—thanks in no small part to three Russell Wilson interceptions—but it has won six of its last seven.
During that span, the Broncos have allowed an average of just 15.6 points per game.
The Lions have lost two of their last three, and all three games were alarming. Detroit struggled to put away the New Orleans Saints in Week 13, and it was physically pushed around by the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears in Weeks 12 and 14, respectively.
While the Lions still have an impressive group of offensive skill players—headlined by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta—turnovers and miscues have been a problem for quarterback Jared Goff.
Denver does a great job at forcing mistakes (12 takeaways in the last five games), and it can muddy up this game enough to keep it close or win outright.
Chicago Bears +3.5 at Cleveland Browns
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We can't discuss improved defenses without mentioning Chicago's. The Bears have become a much better team on that side of the ball in recent weeks, and they blanked the vaunted Lions offense in the second half on Sunday.
Over their last four games, the Bears have allowed an average of only 16.8 points per game. Their secondary has become a factor, and trade acquisition Montez Sweat has made a major impact on the pass rush.
That really doesn't bode well for the Cleveland Browns and statuesque 38-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco. Chicago also ranks third in yards per carry allowed, which means the Browns could struggle to get much of anything going offensively.
Cleveland being without its top three offensive tackles due to injury certainly won't help matters.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields, meanwhile, has arrived as a dangerous dual-threat signal-caller. While the Browns defense is still loaded with talent, it hasn't been as dominant as it was to start the season. Fields should have another solid day in this one.
After watching the Bears systematically wear down the Lions on Sunday, it's hard to envision Cleveland running away with this one. In fact, the Browns might lose for the third time in four weeks.
New England Patriots +9.5 Versus Kansas City Chiefs
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We keep waiting for the Kansas City Chiefs offense to have a "get-right" game, but it keeps not happening. Expecting the Chiefs to find one against the Patriots on the road is a dicey proposition.
While New England hasn't been particularly good this season, its defense has shown a ton of life over the past month-plus. Since Week 9, the Patriots have allowed an average of 13.5 points per game.
Can the Patriots corral Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs offense? Considering Kansas City keeps getting in its own way, it's certainly possible.
The big question is whether New England can muster enough offense against Kansas City's sixth-ranked defense to keep it close. We saw some signs of life from the offense with Bailey Zappe under center in Week 14, so there's a reason to believe it can.
While the Patriots shouldn't be considered a serious threat to pull the outright upset here, fans can probably expect a sluggish, ugly low-scoring game. The Chiefs have failed to reach 20 points in three of their last four outings, and this has all the makings of a 20-12 type of contest.
This line has already started to shift slightly. Now's the time to get in before it shrinks any further.
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