NFL Picks Week 14: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Week 14 began on Thursday night with the latest in a long list of 2023 NFL upsets. The Pittsburgh Steelers were expected to take care of business against a two-win New England Patriots team, but they fell short.
Patriots backup quarterback Bailey Zappe got hot in the first half, and Pittsburgh failed to climb out of a 21-3 hole. The Steelers lost at home only days after the Jacksonville Jaguars did the same against the Cincinnati Bengals and their backup quarterback, Jake Browning.
The rest of the Week 14 slate is dotted with more upset opportunities. However, we've found a few favorites that appear worth backing based on the early weekend lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Texans -3.5 at Jets
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The New York Jets are going back to Zach Wilson at quarterback. After two weeks (and two losses) with Tim Boyle, New York has apparently decided that Wilson wasn't the offense's biggest problem.
"Zach gives us our best chance to win and [this gives] him another opportunity to go prove that," head coach Robert Saleh said, per Brian Costello of the New York Post.
The problem is that the Jets' offensive line isn't good, the team lacks reliable playmakers aside from Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and Nathaniel Hackett's game plans aren't working.
Against an underrated Houston Texans defense, that's going to create issues. And the Texans don't have quarterback concerns, as rookie C.J. Stroud is a budding star. The biggest concern for Houston right now is that standout rookie receiver Tank Dell is out for the year with a fractured fibula.
Stroud has proven that he can overcome adversity, and the Texans have a solid backfield duo in Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. Houston can exploit a Jets defense ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed, get a few big plays in the passing game and force mistakes by Wilson to come away with a convincing win.
49ers -11.5 Versus Seahawks
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This is an extremely large line for a divisional game, but the San Francisco 49ers have been playing an elite brand of football over the past few weeks. They dismantled the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend and battered the Seattle Seahawks 31-13 in Round 1 of this matchup on Thanksgiving.
To be fair, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith was dealing with an elbow/triceps injury in the first meeting. He's healthier now and showed that during last Thursday's 35-41 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
The Seahawks have also had extra time to prepare for the rematch.
However, San Francisco has won four straight against Seattle, including playoffs, and has won by at least eight points every time. With running backs Kenneth Walker III (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) both injured, Seattle could have a tough time maintaining offensive balance against a resurgent 49ers defense.
The Seahawks did an admirable job of keeping things close against the Cowboys last week, but Dallas may have overlooked the Seahawks with the Eagles looming in Week 14. The 49ers won't make the same mistake, and they have too many offensive threats—including Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk—for Seattle to keep pace.
Packers -6.5 at Giants
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The New York Giants have the potential to surprise on Monday night against the Green Bay Packers. They seem to have found something in rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, and their defense has performed better over the last few weeks than it did early in the season.
In wins over the Patriots and Washington Commanders, New York allowed 26 total points. Coming out of the bye, the Giants have also had two weeks to prepare for this matchup.
However, the Packers are surging. Their defense has come together in upset wins over the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, while quarterback Jordan Love has put his early-season struggles behind him.
Over the past three games, Love has thrown for 857 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
While DeVito has been fun to watch, the Giants still lack reliable offensive options after Saquon Barkley. With players like Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks beginning to emerge, the Packers don't have the same problem.
New York still has the drive and the fight to make this an interesting one early. However, the version of Love we've seen recently is perfectly capable of pulling away late. Green Bay feels like the safe pick as long as the line remains at a touchdown or less.
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