NFL Picks Week 14 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Week 14 is shaping up to be a fun one, with several potential playoff previews on the docket—including Sunday night's battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
However, not every game is going to carry heavy playoff implications on both sides. Thursday's opener between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, for example, means little for the two-win Patriots.
Fans looking to add a little juice to potentially one-sided games can always add a player prop or two to the equation. Below, we'll dive into some of the spiciest matchups and favorite props to consider based on the mid-week odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Ezekiel Elliott over 58.5 Rushing Yards
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Most casual fans won't have a rooting interest on Thursday night. If you're looking for a specific player to cheer on, consider Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott, who is -120 (bet $120 to win $100) to hit the over on this rushing prop.
In a vacuum, this appears to be a lofty goal. Elliott is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season and has only reached 60 rushing yards once. However, Rhamondre Stevenson (high-ankle sprain) is set to miss time, meaning Elliott should see a ton of backfield work against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers haven't been particularly consistent in defending the run. They've allowed 4.3 yards per carry and could be without their top run-stuffing linebacker, Elandon Roberts, who suffered a groin injury in Week 13.
Bailey Zappe is expected to start at quarterback for New England, and against T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense, a run-heavy game plan would be wise. The Arizona Cardinals ran James Conner 25 times last week for 105 yards. While Elliott may not produce as many yards, he should see a similar number of carries.
Pat Freiermuth over 2.5 Receptions
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Another prop we really like for Thursday night involves Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth, who is -160 to catch at least three passes.
Kenny Pickett's ankle injury does create a little risk here. Pickett underwent ankle surgery on Monday, meaning backup Mitch Trubisky is in line to start. Trubisky doesn't quite have the chemistry with Freiermuth that Pickett does.
However, new offensive play caller Mike Sullivan has done an excellent job of keeping Freiermuth involved over the past two weeks. The third-year tight end caught nine passes on 11 targets in Week 12. He caught three passes on five targets last week.
New England has a solid defense that has allowed just 26 points over its past three games. It would behoove the Steelers to take easy completions when they can get them and to avoid turnovers in what promises to be a low-scoring affair.
Getting the teams' top security blanket involved early and often would be wise. Expect Freiermuth to catch at least three passes for the third straight game.
Jared Goff over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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The Detroit Lions have appeared vulnerable in recent weeks, and quarterback Jared Goff has experienced his fair share of struggles. He had three fumbles (all lost) in the Week 12 loss to the Green Bay Packers, and the last time he faced the Chicago Bears, he threw three interceptions.
That's six turnovers in two of Goff's last three games.
However, Goff has also consistently found the end zone in the passing game. He's thrown two touchdown passes in four straight games, and the prediction here is that he'll do it again.
Goff is -110 to throw for two or more scores in the Week 14 rematch in Chicago. While the Bears defense did a tremendous job limiting Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs in its last game, we haven't seen Chicago's secondary be great often this season.
Chicago ranks 21st in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 25th in passing yards allowed and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed. The Lions are loaded with playmaking pass-catchers, so expect the Bears to allow two more touchdowns, at a minimum, against Detroit.
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Mike Evans over 75.5 Receiving Yards
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to visit the Atlanta Falcons in a game that will help decide the fate of the NFC South. The 6-6 Falcons lead the division, but the 5-7 Buccaneers are firmly in the mix.
We fully expect Tampa to lean on star receiver Mike Evans early and often in this one. While Atlanta's pass defense has been mostly solid this season—it ranks 11th in passing yards allowed—standout cornerback A.J. Terrell remains in the concussion protocol.
The Falcons would have trouble limiting Evans even with Terrell in the lineup, but if Terrell can't go, Evans could take over the game. He had six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown the last time these two teams met, and he's coming off a seven-catch, 162-yard game.
With Baker Mayfield building a strong rapport with Evans, the Bucs have been perfectly comfortable leaning on that connection in the passing game.
Evans' yardage total has only dipped below 70 once in his past five games, and that came in San Francisco against a rejuvenated 49ers defense. He's -115 to reach 76 receiving yards in this one, and our expectation is that he will.
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