NFL Odds Week 14: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
Week 13 wasn't quite as filled with upsets as some previous NFL weeks have been, but it ended with a stunner on Monday night. The Cincinnati Bengals outlasted the Jacksonville Jaguars in overtime despite not having franchise quarterback Joe Burrow.
Backup Jake Browning was phenomenal in Burrow's stead, finishing 32-of-37 for 354 yards, a passing touchdown and a rushing score. The win put Cincinnati back into the wild-card mix, while Jacksonville's loss prevented the Jaguars from claiming the AFC's No. 1 seed.
We're going to see several more backup quarterbacks starting in Week 14. Will any of them guide their teams to victory? Let's take a look at some underdogs we like for the upcoming slate, based on the early lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Cleveland Browns
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The Jaguars were initially favored over the Cleveland Browns, but Trevor Lawrence's injury on Monday night changed that. Though he hasn't officially been ruled out for Week 14, Lawrence is dealing with a high-ankle sprain.
"Everything looks good and we'll see where he is in a couple of days," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson told reporters on Tuesday.
Quick turnarounds from high-ankle sprains are uncommon, so we're likely to see backup C.J. Beathard against the Browns in Cleveland. While that certainly creates problems for Jacksonville, the Jags should still have a good chance to cover.
Cleveland's vaunted defense has started to show serious cracks in recent weeks, and with Myles Garrett (shoulder) banged-up and Denzel Ward (shoulder) sidelined, it has looked merely average.
The Browns offense, meanwhile, is one of the least reliable in the league. Joe Flacco became the team's fourth starting quarterback of the season in Week 13, and while he played respectably, his fourth-quarter interception helped turn a close game into a blowout.
Jacksonville has been mostly solid against the run, and it's hard to envision Cleveland getting enough offense to pull away in this game, regardless of who is under center. The Browns might escape with a win, but it'll be close.
Cincinnati Bengals +1 Versus Indianapolis Colts
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We just saw the Bengals knock off the Jaguars on the road. While Lawrence's injury did play a part in that, there's little reason to believe that the Bengals can't turn around and win as home dogs against the Indianapolis Colts.
Having wideout Tee Higgins back to 100 percent and in the lineup opposite Ja'Marr Chase was huge. It allowed Browning to do his best Burrow impression and take advantage of a lackluster Jaguars secondary.
The Colts have been much better at defending the pass than Jacksonville, though their defense overall leaves a lot to be desired. Indianapolis ranks 26th in total yards allowed and 27th in points allowed.
If Browning can have another strong outing, he can out-duel Gardner Minshew and the Colts in Week 14. Indy won't have starting tailback Jonathan Taylor, and while it did defeat the Tennessee Titans in Week 13, it got an average game from backup Zack Moss (2.7 yards per carry).
While Cincinnati's defense isn't great, it has done a good job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks (32 sacks) and it can force Minshew into mistakes. Mineshew has been sacked 20 times and committed 12 turnovers in his eight starts this season.
Denver Broncos +2.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
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The Denver Broncos saw their five-game winning streak snapped in Week 13, though they came excruciatingly close to knocking off the red-hot Houston Texans. If not for three Russell Wilson turnovers—including one in the end zone at the tail end of regulation—Denver would probably be sitting at 7-5.
It's hard to see Wilson making as many mistakes against an underachieving Los Angeles Chargers pass defense. The Chargers rank 31st in passing yards allowed and 24th in defensive interceptions with only six.
While the Chargers offense is formidable, it isn't perfect. It only produced six points against the New England Patriots last Sunday. Denver's defense continues to play well following its in-season turnaround, and it can prevent this game from turning into a track meet.
The Broncos are built to win ugly, while the Chargers continue to find ways to lose against above-average squads. This season, the Chargers are just 1-6 against teams that currently have a .500 record or better.
Los Angeles is likely only favored because it holds home-field advantage, but in L.A., that advantage is minimal.
Don't be surprised if Wilson and the Broncos win this one outright.
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