NFL MVP Race 2023-24: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 14
Week 13 was a pivotal one in relation to the 2023 NFL MVP race. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy both had tremendous games against quality opponents, while a couple of other quarterbacks near the top of the favorites list faded.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes struggled through an upset loss to the Green Bay Packers. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts played well enough but was out-dueled by Purdy and the 49ers.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, another MVP contender, was on bye.
Here, we'll take a look at the updated MVP odds, examine the landscape a little more closely and make some predictions.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Following Week 13
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Brock Purdy +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Jalen Hurts +350
Dak Prescott +350
Tua Tagovailoa +700
Lamar Jackson +900
Patrick Mahomes +900
Tyreek Hill +1600
Christian McCaffrey +1600
MVP Overview
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Hurts, who entered Week 13 as the MVP front-runner, didn't have a horrible outing against the 49ers. He finished 26-of-45 for 298 yards and a touchdown plus 20 rushing yards and a rushing score.
However, losing to Purdy head-to-head certainly shook up the MVP picture. Purdy was nearly flawless against Philadelphia, finishing 19-of-27 for 314 yards, four touchdowns and an impressive 148.8 passer rating.
Seeing Purdy jump to the top of the favorites list wasn't a shock. He now leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.6), passer rating (116.1) and QBR (tied, 75.6). The biggest argument against him is that he's the beneficiary of an elite skill group headlined by Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.
Purdy's big game came after Prescott shined on Thursday night. He led the Cowboys to a comeback victory against the Seattle Seahawks, finishing 29-of-41 for 299 yards, three touchdowns and a 115.8 passer rating.
Prescott is now tied with Purdy in QBR, and he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes.
Tua Tagovailoa quietly had a strong outing for the Miami Dolphins, passing for 280 yards and two touchdowns. He is now the AFC's top MVP candidate, though teammate and wide receiver Tyreek Hill certainly has a case.
Hill has racked up an NFL-leading 1,481 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. He's on pace for 2,098 receiving yards, which would break Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 yards in a season.
If Hill gets the record and a few of the top quarterbacks stumble down the stretch, he could become the league's first non-quarterback MVP since Adrian Peterson won it in 2012.
Predictions
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As fun as it would be to see a non-quarterback win the MVP, it's hard to envision the top signal-callers faltering enough for Hill or McCaffrey to steal the award. Given the struggles of Mahomes and the Chiefs, and Tagovailoa's inability to beat an above-average team—Miami doesn't have a victory against a team that is currently above .500—this could be an NFC-centric MVP race.
Jackson is a potential wild card, though. His numbers haven't been great across the board, but he's beaten several good teams, is the NFL's preeminent dual-threat and could lead Baltimore to the AFC's No. 1 seed.
The argument against Prescott is similar to the one against Tagovailoa, in that Dallas has largely feasted on bad teams. Thursday's win marked the first time the Cowboys beat a team with a winning record since facing the 1-0 New York Jets in Week 2. However, Prescott has a ton of momentum and several more chances to prove himself down the stretch.
The Cowboys host the Eagles in Week 14, then play the Buffalo Bills, Dolphins and Detroit Lions. If Prescott continues playing at an elite level, and the Cowboys win out, the MVP could be his.
Hurts could be in a similar situation if the Eagles win out, which would mean that he has beaten Prescott head-to-head twice. That would also clinch the NFL's best record for Philadelphia, and the quarterback of the league's best team often gets heavy MVP consideration.
However, if the Cowboys beat Philadelphia this week, Purdy might be the biggest beneficiary. That would put San Francisco in the driver's seat for the NFC's No. 1 seed, adding another highlight on Purdy's resume.
We can't ignore that Purdy has now beaten both Prescott and Hurts and played well while doing so. He'll have a chance to knock off Jackson too when the 49ers host the Ravens in Week 16.
While Prescott has the higher profile, the prediction here is that Dallas stumbles again at some point while the 49ers keep racking up wins in impressive fashion. Purdy has the numbers to be considered the league's "most valuable," and he'll finish with the big-time victories needed to win the award.
Prediction: Brock Purdy is named the 2023 NFL MVP.
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