Chiefs vs. Packers: Updated Odds, Money Line, Spread, Props to Watch for SNF
Sunday Night Football will run back Super Bowl I as the Green Bay Packers host the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that could have serious ramifications in both playoff races.
For the Chiefs, every week is starting to matter in their quest for the No. 1 seed. Going into Sunday, the top four seeds in the AFC playoff picture all have three losses. The Ravens are slightly ahead by their nine wins to everyone's eight, but it's a tight race.
With the top seed getting the only bye, there's reason to really push for that top ranking.
For the Packers, every week is critical just to get to the dance. They go into Sunday as the eighth-ranked team in the NFC. However, with the Seahawks losing on Thursday Night Football they could be tied with them if they can upset the Chiefs.
It's going to be a good matchup with the potential to produce a close game and plenty of betting action to close out Sunday's slate. Here's a look at the latest lines, a preview of the game and some prop bets to consider to make things interesting.
Schedule, Odds and Spread
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Date: Sunday, December 3 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Watch: NBC/Peacock
Moneyline: Chiefs -258 ($258 wager wins $100); Packers +210 ($100 wager wins $210)
Spread: Chiefs -6
Over/Under: 43
Odds from DraftKings.
Game Preview and Prediction
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The bad news for the Packers here is that they are nearly a touchdown underdog. The good news is that this game didn't happen earlier in the season.
Up until recently this likely would have been a double-digit spread kind of game. The Chiefs got off to a 6-1 start this season while the Packers struggled to a 2-5 record in their first seven games.
Since then, the Packers are 3-1 in their last four to get to their current 5-6 mark. The Chiefs are just 2-2 in their last four games so there's an argument to be made the gulf between these two teams is narrowing and the spread reflects it.
The key to the Packers resurgence has been the play of Jordan Love. Over the last four games he has thrown eight touchdowns to just two interceptions and is starting to look like a long-term solution at quarterback.
That hot streak is about to get put to the test, though. The Chiefs have the best defense they've had in the Mahomes era and are third in the league in yards allowed per pass. They are also sixth in yards per play and third in scoring defense.
Meanwhile, the offense has been uncharacteristically inconsistent this season. The young receiving corps has yet to figure out how to win consistently and the scoring output has showed. They scored just nine points in a loss to the Broncos, but they did get some fireworks on their way to 31 in a win over the Raiders last week.
The points might be hard to come by in this one for the Packers, but it's not guaranteed the Chiefs will be all that successful either.
Prediction: Chiefs -6, Under
Props to Watch
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Rashee Rice Over 60 Receiving Yards (+155)
This is one of DraftKings' alternate lines because Rashee Rice's regular line is set at just 47.5. It's a number that seems fairly easy for him to clear so it's worth getting a little aggressive with the better line here.
Rice is averaging five targets per game, but exploded with 10 targets last week (eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown). The rookie is continuing to build trust and chemistry with Mahomes. He averages five targets per game. In the games that he has six or more targets he has hit at least 59 yards.
Expect him to get more than his average share of targets and to turn it into at least 60 yards.
Tucker Kraft Under 2.5 Receptions (+114)
This line seems to be a reaction to Luke Musgrave being out of the lineup. The rookie was injured against the Los Angeles Chargers which pushed Kraft into a bigger role. The books set his reception line at 2.5 but they made the over a sizeable favorite at -145.
The problem is that Kraft only saw two targets last week and one was a goal-line target that was converted into a touchdown. Jordan Love was not looking his way consistently and the Chiefs have only allowed three catches to one tight end (Durham Smythe) since Week 8.
Patrick Mahomes Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-145)
This line is surprisingly low. Mahomes will definitely look to beat the Packers from the pocket, but this is a line that he has surpassed in all but two games this season. It isn't like the Packers have a history of shutting down quarterbacks who are willing to take off and run either.
Justin Herbert had 73 yards against this defense two weeks ago. Kenny Pickett and Brett Rypien also cleared it. The ones who haven't this season are the likes of Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo. They would make a foot race against a statue interesting. Mahomes isn't in that category.
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