NFL Picks Week 13 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
While the NFL didn't have any teams on bye during Thanksgiving weeks, we'll see teams off again in Week 13. The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants will all be out of action.
This means that fans looking to place a few wagers will have three game's worth of lines and over/unders unavailable in Week 13.
The good news is that bettors can always add a player prop or two to the mix. Below, we'll dive into some of the most favorable matchups and favorite props to consider based on the mid-week odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Dak Prescott over 281.5 Passing Yards
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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has feasted on some underwhelming teams as of late, and the 6-5 Seattle Seahawks aren't one of those teams. Seattle will be only the third team currently above .500 that Dallas has faced this season, and the Cowboys lost the first two.
However, we still like Prescott at -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the over here. While the Seahawks have some defensive standouts—including rookie corner Devon Witherspoon—they rank 22nd against the pass and 23rd in total yards allowed.
The Cowboys are also playing at home, where they're undefeated this season and where Prescott has recently thrived. In his last three home games, the 30-year-old has averaged 346 yards and four touchdowns. He's averaged 311 yards in home games this season.
This is a high line against a quality opponent, but Prescott and the Cowboys are simply that much better at home. Expect Prescott to have his fifth 300-yard game of 2023 against Seattle.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
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While the Detroit Lions fell flat against the Green Bay Packers in Week 12, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs topped 5 rushing yards for the fourth time in five games. The Lions are starting to utilize Gibbs and David Montgomery in something closer to a 50-50 split, which is why we like Gibbs to hit the over here (-120).
This week, the Lions will be looking to bounce back against the New Orleans Saints. Given the recent struggles of quarterback Jared Goff—who has six turnovers in his last two games—Detroit is likely to take a run-heavy approach.
That's the right plan against a Saints defense surrendering 4.5 yards per carry anyway, so expect Gibbs to hit the over here.
Montgomery is -115 to reach 63 rushing yards and represents another enticing play in this particular matchup.
Tyreek Hill over 98.5 Receiving Yards
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Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is -125 to reach 99 receiving yards against the Washington Commanders. While this is an extremely high line to hit, Hill isn't your average receiver.
The Dolphins have leaned heavily on Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the passing game, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa rarely looks away from those two when attacking downfield. Hill leads the Dolphins with 120 targets, Waddle is next with 75, and running back Raheem Mostert is third with only 27.
As a result, Hill has produced seven games with at least 100 receiving yards this season, and he's hit that mark in three of his last four. His last two games without 100 yards came against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Commanders don't have a defense close to what the Eagles and Chiefs have. Washington ranks 30th in passing yards allowed, 31st in net yards per attempt allowed and 32nd in points allowed. Expect Hill to have another huge day.
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Brock Purdy over 254.5 Passing Yards
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While the Eagles defense can wreak havoc up front and pressure opposing quarterbacks, it hasn't been the best at limiting yardage. In fact, Philadelphia ranks just 29th in passing yards allowed.
That's part of why we like the over (-115) for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy with this passing prop. While Purdy threw for only 209 yards last week, he topped 260 passing yards in his four games before that.
The other factor here is Philadelphia's third-ranked run defense. San Francisco would likely love to ride Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and the ground game, but that just might not be an option.
In what should be a back-and-forth battle, the 49ers will have to move the ball through the air. Unless San Francisco pulls away early, which seems unlikely against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, the 49ers will continue throwing long enough for Purdy to again approach 300 yards.
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