NFL Odds Week 13: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
Week 12 ended with yet another upset, as the Chicago Bears outlasted the Minnesota Vikings on the road. We've seen a few upsets in just about every week during the 2023 NFL season, and that trend is likely to continue over the final six weeks.
For bettors, the challenge is identifying recent trends, changes and matchups that can give the underdog an advantage. On Monday, for example, Justin Fields' mobility was a huge factor against a Vikings defense that has blitzed a league-high 43.1 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Reference.
Below, we'll dive into some of the Week 13 matchups and pick out a few underdogs we like against the early lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Carolina Panthers +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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I know, it's hard to expect the one-win Carolina Panthers to keep it close against any opponent at this point. Carolina recently fired head coach Frank Reich, quarterbacks coach Josh McCown and running backs coach Duce Staley, which isn't likely to have an instantly positive impact on rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
However, the Panthers defense does match up very well with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina has been stout against the pass and vulnerable against the run. The Bucs are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry as a team, the league's lowest rushing rate.
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is also battling an ankle injury, though he's expected to play this week.
"He has a sore ankle," head coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "We'll see how he's feeling during the week. But [his MRI] came out negative, so that's a good thing."
Tampa is a gritty team that simply hasn't been able to string together wins this season. While the Buccaneers should outlast the directionless Panthers in this one, it's going to be a battle, and Carolina can indeed keep things close.
Denver Broncos +3.5 at Houston Texans
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It's a bit surprising to see the Houston Texans favored by this much against the red-hot Denver Broncos, but there's some logic behind it. Houston has been terrific against the run, and Denver's game plan has been to lean on the ground game and its emerging defense.
However, that plan has led to mostly mistake-free football from quarterback Russell Wilson, and with Courtland Sutton establishing himself as a go-to playmaker, Denver should find offense.
The Texans, it should be noted, rank just 30th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
C.J. Stroud is a star quarterback, and DeMeco Ryans is proving his worth as a head coach. However, the Texans aren't exactly loaded with offensive star power. Denver's defense, meanwhile, has morphed into a fast, physical and opportunistic unit.
The Broncos have forced 15 turnovers over their last four games.
It's hard to bet against Stroud at home, but the Broncos are a feisty bunch and they should make this one extremely close if they don't win outright.
Tennessee Titans +1 Versus Indianapolis Colts
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The 6-5 Indianapolis Colts are a much more complete team than the 47 Tennessee Titans, and they showed that back in Week 5 with a 23-16 victory.
However, two things will be different in Round 2. The Titans will be at home, and they'll have rookie quarterback Will Levis under center instead of Ryan Tannehill.
While Levis is still developing, he's shown a solid grasp of the Tennessee offense. He's also helped the Titans rediscover the long ball, which has helped boost the ground game and play action.
Offensively, the Titans match up well with the Colts, who rank 26th in rushing yards allowed. Tennessee should be able to lean on Derrick Henry while limiting Levis' exposure to mistakes.
The Titans defense, meanwhile, is stout against the run, meaning Indy may have to lean into Gardner Minshew and the passing game. Jonathan Taylor is also expected to miss multiple weeks following thumb surgery, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, which could further make this a Minshew-centric game.
While Minshew has been mostly good this season, his mistakes have come in bunches—he turned it over nine times during Indy's last three losses.
If the Titans can force Minshew into a couple of game-altering mistakes, they can absolutely win the rematch. This makes Tennessee one of the few home dogs worth targeting in Week 13.
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