NFL Picks Week 13: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
Thanksgiving week is over, and bye weeks are back. In Week 13, the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants will be out of action.
For fans looking to make a few wagers, this means fewer betting opportunities than we saw in Week 12. However, those so inclined can always look past the simple spreads and money lines to over/under bets.
Below, we'll dive into the early Week 13 odds to identify our favorite over/under opportunities for the upcoming slate.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys Over 46 Points
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The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks are set to open Week 13 on Thursday night. What would normally be a short week isn't for these two teams because both played on Thanksgiving.
For Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, the full week should help him recover from his triceps injury.
"Still working, still battling, working through some things. Just pushing every day. To have two days to be able to rest and recover and work on my body was pretty good," Smith said, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
Having Smith closer to 100 percent should help Seattle push the points total to the over. The Seahawks haven't fared particularly well against too-tier teams, but a push into the double digits should be enough.
The Cowboys have played well at home this season, and Dak Prescott and the offense hasve thrived in Arlington. At home, Dallas has scored no fewer than 30 points in a game while averaging 41. In their last three home games, the Cowboys have scored 43, 49 and 45 points.
A Seahawks defense ranked 22nd in points allowed isn't likely to slow Dallas' home momentum, and unless this one approaches a shutout, the over should hit.
Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets Over 34 Points
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The under is very tempting here because of the New York Jets' ongoing offensive struggles. Replacing Zach Wilson with Tim Boyle had very little impact in Week 11, where the Jets mustered a single touchdown.
However, the Atlanta Falcons are starting to find a rhythm offensively. Desmond Ridder has discovered some chemistry with Drake London, and Atlanta has finally decided that feeding Bijan Robinson is a good idea.
The Falcons have scored at least 23 points in each of their last four games.
While Atlanta's defense has talent, it's not a true shutdown unit—the defense ranks 14th in both yards and points allowed. Home-field advantage should give the Jets a bit of a boost, as should the extra time of preparation.
Last week, the Jets faced the Miami Dolphins in the NFL's first-ever Black Friday game.
There's some risk in banking on New York to hold up its end, but this is an extremely low line, and Falcons games haven't fallen below it since Week 7.
Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers Over 41 Points
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For most of the 2023 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers have felt like the NFL's version of Iowa football. They kept finding ways to win and hit the under fairly consistently.
However, last week's firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada may have shifted things a bit. While Pittsburgh only produced 16 points in a physical road game against the rival Cincinnati Bengals, its offense showed life.
Pittsburgh topped 400 yards for the first time since 2020, and quarterback Kenny Pickett had his first 275-yard passing game of the season. Playcaller Mike Sullivan got standouts like George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth involved early and often.
Expect continued growth in the Steelers' new-look offense to yield more points against an Arizona Cardinals defense ranked 31st in points allowed. The Steelers may not get to the over by themselves, but it wouldn't be a total shock to see them approach the 30s.
With Kyler Murray rounding back into form for Arizona, we're unlikely to see a potential shutout, even from a fantastic Steelers defense. The Cardinals haven't scored fewer than 14 points since Murray's return.
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