NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 13 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 12 Results
Week 12 was a fun one, and it might have finally provided a little clarity on the playoff race. The Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens both won and retained the top spots in their respective conferences. The San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins all picked up decisive divisional wins, while the Jacksonville Jaguars outlasted the upstart Houston Texans.
Week 13 will feature a few more potential playoff previews, and it could feature a few lopsided contests as well.
Below, we'll dive into some of the early odds coming out of Week 12 to identify some prime wagering opportunities for the upcoming slate.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Cowboys and Seahawks over 46.5 Points
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The Dallas Cowboys will kick off Week 13 by hosting the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night. We like the Cowboys -8.5 at home against a very up-and-down Seahawks team, but the over feels like it's actually a safer pick.
Seattle has struggled against top-tier teams recently, surrendering 37 and 31 points to the Ravens and 49ers, respectively. Over the last month, Seattle has also failed to hold an opponent below 17 points.
While Dallas might not be a top-tier team, it's been fantastic at home this season. Dak Prescott and Co. have produced no fewer than 30 points at home and have averaged 41 points per game in Arlington.
Don't expect that trend to stop against Seattle, especially with the Cowboys more than willing to run up the score on the opposition. Dallas should score well into the 30s here, and while Seattle hasn't been consistent offensively, it should produce enough late points to hit the over.
Dallas' last three home games have produced no fewer than 55 total points.
Colts and Titans over 43 Points
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If you haven't been paying attention, it's worth noting that the Indianapolis Colts are 6-5 and firmly in the AFC wild-card race. Though Indy lost rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to a season-ending shoulder injury, their offense has continued rolling with backup Gardner Minshew.
Indianapolis has averaged just over 24 points per game this season. t should continue riding high against a Tennessee Titans team that is solid defensively but has had issues against the pass.
The Titans are allowing an average of 6.5 net yards per pass attempt. Expect Minshew, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and the rest of the passing attack to take full advantage.
Tennessee should similarly get good production from Will Levis, Derrick Henry and its offense.
Indianapolis has pretty consistently found itself in shootouts this season, with nine of 11 games featuring at least 40 total points and six of 11 reaching 45 points. This should be another Colts game that hits the mid-40s.
Chiefs -6.5 at Packers
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This may feel like a fairly large line, considering we've seen improvement from the Green Bay Packers defense in recent weeks. However, the Kansas City Chiefs seemed to get something to click offensively on Sunday.
After three straight games of being held scoreless in the second half, Kansas City broke a 14-point halftime tie with 17 points after intermission. The Chiefs rode Isiah Pacheco on the ground and fed the ball to rookie receiver Rashee Rice.
Rice finished with 107 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions. If the Chiefs can establish him as a viable second option behind Travis Kelce, they're going to be tough to stop down the stretch.
The Chiefs still have a championship-caliber defense, and while Jordan Love is coming off perhaps the best game of his career, he's still an inexperienced quarterback who will likely have ups and downs against Kansas City.
Given Green Bay's recent surge, this should be a fun nightcap for Sunday's action. However, the Chiefs have the more experienced and more complete team and should win by a touchdown.
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