NFL Odds Week 13: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
It may seem hard to believe, but we're already approaching the final six weeks of the 2023 NFL season.
It's been a fun ride thus far, and very few teams are truly out of the playoff race. That means that the vast majority of Week 13 games will carry some degree of playoff implications. That starts with Thursday night's contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks.
Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite wagering opportunities in Week 13, based on the early lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Miami Dolphins -9.5 at Washington Commanders
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This is an extremely large line for a road favorite. However, the Miami Dolphins present significant matchup problems for the Washington Commanders.
Washington can get enough out of Sam Howell and its passing game to keep things interesting for a bit. However, the Commanders defense—ranked 30th in passing yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed—is a complete liability.
Against an offense that features Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., Washington's defense will eventually break apart. That's what happened last Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys, when a 10-point deficit turned into a 35-point deficit during the fourth quarter—Howell throwing a pick-six at the end was pretty much irrelevant.
Expect Howell's penchant for turnovers—he's tied for the league lead with 13 interceptions—will probably cost Washington at some point in this matchup.
The Dolphins are on the road and have been up and down this season. However, they played a sloppy game against the New York Jets in Week 12 and still won by three touchdowns. Expect a similar outcome this week.
Los Angeles Chargers -6 at New England Patriots
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The Los Angeles Chargers are 4-7 and just lost to the Baltimore Ravens 20-10. The final score might suggest that Los Angeles laid an egg against the visiting Ravens, but the Chargers actually hung in there.
L.A. was in Ravens territory late in the fourth quarter, looking for a game-tying field goal or a go-ahead touchdown when Justin Herbert was called for intentional grounding on 4th-and-6 Only then did Baltimore put the game away with a Zay Flowers touchdown run.
The Chargers seem to have a knack for keeping it close and then blowing it late. That won't be the case against the rudderless New England Patriots this week. New England is a two-win squad with an injury-hampered defense, a lack of receiving threats and no answers at the quarterback position.
The Patriots may also be more interested in securing a top-two draft pick than winning meaningless games late in the season. New England may not be openly tanking, but its flip-flopping between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe has done nothing to build a winning mentality.
L.A. should win by at least a touchdown.
Denver Broncos +3.5 at Houston Texans
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Sunday's matchup between the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans will feature two of the best storylines of the 2023 season. The Texans have become relevant with the arrival of coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Broncos have experienced a dramatic in-season turnaround and have won five straight.
This should be a close game regardless of who comes out on top. The Texans are fairly heavy favorites, considering the teams share a 6-5 record. Stroud is great, and the Texans defense is underrated, but the Broncos have found their groove.
Sean Payton has figured out how to limit offensive mistakes, and while Russell Wilson isn't exactly cooking, he's not regularly hurting his team either. The Broncos put up 27 offensive points against a very good Cleveland Browns defense in Week 12 by playing smart efficient football.
Denver's defense, meanwhile, is playing fast and physically, and it's creating turnovers at a dizzying pace—15 in the last four games. If the Broncos don't win outright, they're unlikely to lose by more than a field goal.
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