NFL Picks Week 12: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
The NFL playoff race has started heating up, but we really haven't seen many teams separate themselves from the proverbial pack as we have in years past.
We thought that the Detroit Lions could be on the verge of pulling away as teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins seem to be in their divisions. However, the 5-6 Green Bay Packers came into Ford Field on Thursday afternoon and commanded the game from start to finish.
We're likely to see more upsets as the final 12 games of Week 12 unfold. Which favorites do we actually trust? Let's take a look.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Tennessee Titans -3.5 Versus Carolina Panthers
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The Tennessee Titans are just 1-3 with rookie Will Levis as their starting quarterback. However, Levis (89.3 QB rating) has played at a respectable level and has returned the downfield passing element to the Titans offense.
The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, are getting far less impressive play from No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. To be fair, Young has been saddled with some unimaginative play calling and a lackluster supporting cast—but that's not going to suddenly change in Week 12.
With all of that said, the biggest mismatch in this one is Tennessee's rushing attack—which averages 4.4 yards per carry—against a Panthers defense allowing 4.3 yards per rush. Tennessee should be able to lean on the ground game, open up play-action and keep Carolina off-balance.
In 10 games this season, Carolina has only held the opposition under 100 rushing yards once.
Derrick Henry, who topped 100 yards in each of his last four 2022 outings, is no stranger to late-season surges. Expect Tennessee to unleash him on the lowly one-win Panthers.
The Titans should win by a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at Las Vegas Raiders
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It would be foolish to dismiss the Las Vegas Raiders, who have shown a lot more fight and consistency under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Las Vegas had an up-and-down game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 11 but still managed to cover.
The absences of Jerick McKinnon (groin) and Mecole Hardman (thumb) won't help the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, the Chiefs have traditionally been very good in games following a loss. The last time Kansas City experienced consecutive losses came in Week 2 and 3 of the 2021 season.
The Chiefs also have one of the league's best defenses, which should cause problems for rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell—who threw a trio of interceptions against Miami last week.
Additionally, Kansas City should be able to ride Isiah Pacheco and the ground game against a run defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Patrick Mahomes hasn't gotten quite enough out of a middling receiver corps, but he knows how to battle divisional opponents and should have a bounce-back game.
This is a large line, but Kansas City desperately needs a win to stay in contention for the No. 1 seed. Expect the Chiefs to win big.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 Versus Buffalo Bills
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Last Monday night, the Philadelphia Eagles outlasted Kansas City in a Super Bowl rematch. This Sunday, they'll host the Buffalo Bills, another supposed AFC contender.
The Eagles upset the Chiefs, and they should be expected to hold serve at home against Buffalo. While the Bills are a talented team, they've dealt with multiple defensive injuries and have lacked consistency. New offensive coordinator Joe Brady helped spark the offense against the New York Jets in Week 11, but Buffalo's 32-6 victory could be a bit of a mirage.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen mostly played well against New York, but his turnover issues were still present. He tossed his 12th interception of the season against the Jets.
New York also appeared to be completely demoralized against Buffalo, something the Eagles won't experience. Some inconsistent coverage against opposing wideouts is a concern, but Philly's stout defensive front can force Allen into making multiple mistakes.
Expect Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to have fewer miscues and to ride home-field advantage to a fairly decisive victory.
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