NFL Week 12 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
Week 12 is slated to kick off with a trio of Thanksgiving games, and survivor-pool participants are eyeing a potentially troublesome slate. The challenge is a slew of divisional matchups, short-week games and standalone contests—all of which make for unappealing survivor picks.
Week 11 didn't feature many stunning upsets, though anyone who trusted the Washington Commanders or Pittsburgh Steelers to take care of business against third-string quarterbacks was out of luck.
This week, there are only a handful of trustworthy heavy favorites, and fans may no longer have teams like the Dallas Cowboys (-11 versus the Washington Commanders) or San Francisco 49ers (-6.5 at Seattle Seahawks) available to them.
Below, you'll find some advice for navigating another week, using the latest Week 12 odds as a guideline.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
General Survivor Tips for Week 12
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Standalone divisional games are risky, but if you have the Cowboys available in Week 12, it's time to take them. The Commanders have been terrible against the pass this season, and their 32nd-ranked scoring defense doesn't match up well with Dallas.
With the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions on deck, there isn't another "safe" game for Dallas between now and the Week 18 rematch with Washington.
Divisional games worth avoiding this week include Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals tilt and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans matchup.
The Steelers, who just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, are one-point favorites over the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. While Pittsburgh has the better defense and its starting quarterback, it's hard to truly trust the Steelers offense in any game.
The Jags-Texans matchup will feature a fun battle between Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud (Jacksonville is a 1.5-point favorite). While it'll be a great game to watch, it's not hard to see either quarterback coming out on top.
We'd also recommend avoiding the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles matchup on Sunday. Philly is a 3.5-point favorite and has the more complete team. However, Josh Allen and the Bills offense seemed to have a newfound spark in Week 11 under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
The Eagles just outlasted the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night, and they could be ripe for a letdown if the good version of Allen is indeed back.
The Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) should be able to handle the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night, but it being a prime-time road game should make Baltimore a last resort. Monday night's NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) and Chicago Bears should be another no-go.
Trust the Lions over the Packers
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We don't love divisional matchups, and Week 11 provided a great example of why. The Detroit Lions battled back to beat the rival Chicago Bears, but they had to overcome three interceptions and a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to do it.
"It was not my best ball for about 3 1/2 quarters," quarterback Jared Goff said, per Larry Lage of the Associated Press. "We're a resilient crew. We're tough. We don't back down."
However, you should be able to trust the Lions against the rival Green Bay Packers this week. Green Bay has not played consistently well this season, and while we've seen the occasional flash from quarterback Jordan Love, he isn't as much of a threat as Chicago's Justin Fields.
Fields finished with 169 passing yards, one passing touchdown and 104 rushing yards against Detroit.
While the Lions defense has its issues, Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should provide more offensive talent than Green Bay can handle.
The environment is also going to be electric and will heavily favor the home team. Detroit fans haven't had a team like this to root for on Thanksgiving in a very long time. It's going to be very hostile ground for the Packers, who are 7.5-point underdogs.
Consider the Chiefs, Beware the Dolphins
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The Miami Dolphins are 10-point favorites over the New York Jets, while the Kansas City Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. If you're eager to trust one of these two in a divisional matchup, Kansas City is the way to go.
To be clear, we don't love Kansas City against a Raiders team that has improved under interim coach Antonio Pierce. The Chiefs have experienced far too much offensive instability (and drops), but they have traditionally bounced back from losses in the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid era.
Kansas City last experienced consecutive losses in Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2021 season. Before that, it was Weeks 5 and 6 in 2019.
The Chiefs have won five straight against the Raiders, and while Las Vegas is playing better, it's still going to start a rookie quarterback in Aidan O'Connell against a fantastic Kansas City defense.
The Dolphins should beat a Jets team that just replaced quarterback Zach Wilson with Tim Boyle. However, Miami's offense hasn't looked great in its past two games, and if Boyle provides a spark, there's upset potential here.
Miami gets the Commanders and their woeful pass defense in Week 13 before a home game against the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 and a home rematch with the Jets in Week 15. There's no reason to fire off Miami now if you have other options.
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