NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 12 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 11 Results
Week 11 was another fun one, with multiple games coming down to the wire. We saw some oddities—like the Pittsburgh Steelers losing a close game in the fourth quarter and the New York Giants racing to a convincing victory—along the way.
While there's plenty to contemplate about what just happened, a smorgasbord of early Week 12 action is right around the corner.
Fans will get a trio of Thanksgiving games, followed by the NFL's first-ever Black Friday contest—an AFC East showdown between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.
Let's dive into some of the Week 11 results and identify a few early lines to like for Week 12.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Dolphins -8 at Jets
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While the Dolphins didn't play a splendid offensive game during their 20-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, they did get a defensive spark. The defense picked off Aidan O'Connell three times, and Jalen Ramsey sealed the win with a late pick in the end zone.
Miami is beginning to find balance, and with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle still leading the offense, that makes the Dolphins dangerous.
The Jets, meanwhile, appear to be anything but. Zach Wilson was benched during New York's blowout 32-6 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Jets offense is converting a league-low 22.9 percent of its third-down attempts.
According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Tim Boyle will get the start for New York in Week 12.
New York's defense, which ranked fourth in yards and points allowed last season, now ranks a good-not-great 11th in both categories. The Jets simply aren't capable of winning games with defense alone.
Miami has struggled against playoff-caliber opponents this season, but that's not what New York is. New York is a team desperate for offensive answers, and they'll be hard to find against a division rival on a short week.
Steelers -1 at Bengals
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Before Sunday, the Steelers appeared to be masters of winning ugly. When they tied the game midway through the fourth quarter, it felt like Pittsburgh was destined to come back against the Cleveland Browns and rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
However, the Browns made enough plays on their final drive to secure a go-ahead field goal and the win. A putrid performance by Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense gave Cleveland that opportunity.
"There's just a lot of stuff that just goes around that you guys don't see," running back Najee Harris said, per ESPN's Brooke Pryor. "I guess I'm trying to say it's just, I'm just at a point where I'm just tired of this."
The Steelers offense has been an issue for most of the season, but it has been good enough to win more often than not. That wasn't the case against a top-notch Browns defense, but Pittsburgh should rebound against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Like the Browns, Cincinnati will rely on a backup quarterback in Jake Browning—Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury last Thursday. The Bengals don't have a defense on par with Cleveland's, instead ranking 30th in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed.
Expect Pittsburgh to get back in the win column this week.
Saints +1 at Falcons
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Sunday's game between the 5-5 New Orleans Saints and 4-6 Atlanta Falcons is essentially a pick-em. We'll take the road team in this one, for one simple reason. While the Saints haven't gotten great quarterback play this season, they at least boast experience.
If Derek Carr, who remained in the concussion protocol on Monday, can't go, New Orleans will turn to Jameis Winston.
The Falcons have flip-flopped between Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, and they'll be turning back to Ridder against the Saints.
"Sometimes you need a fresh perspective," Falcons coach Arthur Smith said of Ridder, per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport. "That's what I think helped him. The reset, the refocus and working on things that I thought could help him, he's done that."
The return to Ridder isn't likely to substantially spark Atlanta's 24th-ranked scoring offense, and the Falcons will need a spark against a well-rounded and efficient Saints defense.
The Falcons defense is also fairly solid, but the Saints should get enough out of Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to win a close one in a pivotal divisional matchup.
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