NFL Picks Week 11: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
It's become increasingly difficult to truly trust the favorites during the 2023 NFL season. Week 10 saw several upsets and a record six teams winning on last-second field goals.
On Thursday, the Baltimore Ravens won convincingly as favorites, though it's worth noting that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow exited before halftime with a wrist injury.
Week 11 will feature several more tough matchups and a few presumed blowouts. The Miami Dolphins, for example, are heavy favorites against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders heading into the weekend.
While one-sided games aren't typically fun for the casual fan, adding a wager or two can up the excitement factor. With all of this in mind, let's examine a few favorites we like based on the early weekend lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 at Carolina Panthers
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The Dallas Cowboys are heavy road favorites against the Carolina Panthers this week. While picking teams to win big on the road is risky—Dallas blew it against the Arizona Cardinals back in Week 3—Carolina simply doesn't have the overall talent to hand with the Cowboys.
Dallas' offense has started to hit its stride in recent weeks, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and clicking with receivers CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Carolina does have a respectable pass defense, but its offense too often puts opposing teams in good positions.
Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is struggling to develop with a lackluster supporting cast. A bland offensive game plan hasn't helped matters. Head coach Frank Reich—who called plays early in the season—is taking back duties from offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.
"I'm in this position I'm in because of my years of being a successful offensive coordinator and play caller," Reich said, per Christian Arnold of the New York Post.
With all due respect to Reich, the Panthers offense wasn't exactly soaring before he surrendered play calling to Brown. Don't expect sudden success against Dallas' third-ranked defense. Do expect the Cowboys to win by two touchdowns.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Green Bay Packers
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The Los Angeles Chargers are on the road but aren't favored as heavily as the Cowboys. That's unsurprising, as Los Angeles has been wildly inconsistent this season.
The Chargers are loaded with offensive talent, and at times, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen have taken over games. However, L.A.'s 32nd-ranked pass defense has been a significant liability at times too.
This has resulted in a 4-5 record and a sense of desperation around Los Angeles.
Expect the Chargers to be supremely focused when they visit the Green Bay Packers. While the defense might not completely stifle quarterback Jordan Love, it can do enough to force the relatively inexperienced signal-caller into mistakes.
Love has thrown 10 interceptions this season and is coming off a two-pick performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Green Bay's 11th-ranked defense can keep things close early, but the Chargers have the playmakers needed to pull away late. Unless the L.A. defense truly falls flat and Love has the game of his career, the Chargers should win by more than a field goal.
Washington Commanders -8.5 Versus New York Giants
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The Washington Commanders have also been an up-and-down team in 2023, and this is a surprisingly large line for Washington. However, it has actually shifted in the New York Giants' favor through the week, and now feels like a good time to back the Commanders.
Washington's big advantage here is second-year quarterback Sam Howell. The North Carolina product has settled in and is playing like an above-average NFL starter. He's thrown for a league-high 2,783 yards with 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 91.5 quarterback rating.
Howell threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns last week in a close loss to a very good Seattle Seahawks team.
The Giants aren't a good team, and they'll be relying on third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito in this one. Howell will have to avoid mental miscues, but the Giants defense, which has just 10 takeaways on the season, is far from a shutdown unit.
There is some risk of Saquon Barkley gashing Washington's 21st-ranked defense in this one, but the Commanders have the better quarterback, the more complete team and home-field advantage. Expect a double-digit victory in Landover.
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