12 Predictions for 2023-24 MLB Offseason Trades
While this stage of the MLB offseason is normally a time to monitor free agency, there is also a robust trade market to consider.
Teams are going to swap players and prospects as they normally do, but some of the names tied to trade rumors could make a serious impact at their respective destinations.
For some—particularly the small market teams—the best way to upgrade rosters isn't simply getting guys to sign on the dotted line; rather, they often need to give something in order to get the players they really need.
With that in mind, here are 12 trade predictions for the offseason along with analysis of what those deals would mean for the players and teams involved.
1B Bobby Dalbec to Miami Marlins
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It would be the second swing the Marlins take at first base since the 2023 trade deadline when they acquired Josh Bell from the Cleveland Guardians.
Bell was better in his 53 games with the Marlins than his 97 with Guardians, but he is on an expiring contract in 2024 and could be a decent trade piece in his own right for Miami.
Meanwhile, Dalbec has yet to realize the potential he showed after making his big-league debut in 2020 when he posted a .959 in just 23 games of the pandemic-shortened season.
Based on that performance, there was hope Dalbec would become the next Boston Red Sox superstar. Instead, his numbers have gotten worse each season, leading to him being optioned to Triple-A early in the 2023 campaign.
The power is still there, but Dalbec's strikeout percentage went from poor (33 percent) to comically bad last season (52.4 percent). A change of scenery and a fresh start for Dalbec could do him and the Red Sox some good.
OF Anthony Santander to Miami Marlins
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Predicting trades to the Marlins is difficult without someone clearly leading their baseball operations department, but this is a pairing that's previously been discussed.
Santander is projected to make $12.7 million in 2024, his final year of arbitration. That figure might encourage the Baltimore Orioles to deal away the 29-year-old switching-hitting outfielder, who earned $7.4 million in 2023.
The Orioles have a surplus of outfielders between Cedric Mullins, Austin Mays, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad in addition to Santander.
The Marlins could be looking for a replacement to Jorge Soler, who declined his player option for 2024. It leaves a hole for Miami at designated hitter and in the outfield, one Santander could presumably fill.
Santander is coming off consecutive seasons with at least 28 home runs, hitting 33 of them in 2022. His 95 RBI this past season tied a career-high.
OF Dylan Carlson to New York Yankees
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This deal was negotiated at the most recent trade deadline, with the St. Louis Cardinals looking to trade away their outfield surplus in exchange for more pitching.
The deal fell, though, because the Yankees either did not have or were unwilling to part with pitching prospects the Cardinals were interested in. But that was months ago, and the needs for both of these teams still remain.
The Yankees could use another productive outfielder. Carlson fits that bill, plus he has three more years of club control.
Adding a player with a 92 OPS+ in 743 plate appearances over the past two years should cause some concern. But he's just 25 years old, and three years removed from posting a 115 OPS+ with 53 extra-base hits.
Carlson did undergo offseason ankle surgery from which it will take a few months to recover, but he's expected to be ready by spring training.
The Cardinals should sell on Carlson while they can. The last thing they need from him would be a slow start to the 2024 season, which would further diminish his trade value.
RHP Tyler Glasnow to St. Louis Cardinals
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Glasnow is owed $25 million this upcoming season in his final year under club control, and the Tampa Bay Rays are a notoriously low-budget franchise that produces pitchers like a factory.
At 30 years old, Glasnow would be an attractive piece for any team. But his expiring deal especially makes sense for a team looking to contend. For St. Louis, this would be a short-term, high-ceiling move to bring in Glasnow, who could provide the kind of boost to a rotation that Jordan Montgomery did for the Texas Rangers this year at the trade deadline.
The Cardinals, by contrast, were bottom third of MLB in both categories. Glasnow would be an obvious upgrade to their rotation. He provides them an ace-caliber starter with swing-and-miss stuff, which St. Louis is sorely lacking.
2B Jorge Polanco to Boston Red Sox
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The Minnesota Twins picked up the $10.5 million option for Polanco, who's spent his entire 10-year career with the organization. But the 30-year-old second baseman has been displaced with the emergence of 24-year-old Edouard Julien, likely relegating Polanco to a utility role.
That is a lot of money to pay for a utility player, but he doubles as one of the best hitting second basemen in the game, which means there should be a demand for his services.
The Boston Red Sox are prioritizing pitching this offseason, as they should. But they were also bottom-five in fWAR and in the bottom third of MLB in wRC+ from the second base position.
Boston traded for Luis Urías at the deadline last season, and he hit a pair of grand slams early to skew his stats, but Polanco would be an obvious upgrade.
RHP Shane Bieber to Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles already have good pitching, but the rotation could still use the boost that Bieber would provide. The 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner does not have the same velocity from three seasons ago, but still produced a solid 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this past season.
Earlier in this article, Anthony Santander was dealt to the Marlins to help with their outfield needs and lessen the Orioles' outfield surplus with the most expensive player.
A trade centered around Santander for Bieber also makes plenty of sense. If not Santander, Ryan Mountcastle or Austin Hayes are both reasonable options as a centerpiece for a deal to land Bieber, who is projected to make $12.1 million in his final arbitration year.
The Cleveland Guardians would be looking to shed salary with the hope of not losing Bieber for nothing in free agency or simply not waiting to see what his value is at the 2024 trade deadline.
OF/DH Eloy Jiménez to Milwaukee Brewers
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Jiménez can be one of the best power hitters in baseball, but right now he's playing on an expiring contract for a team that's…well, expiring. The Chicago White Sox have been one of the game's biggest disappointments over the past two years, and it doesn't make sense to waste more of Jiménez' time.
He hit 18 home runs in 122 games this past season, both of which are the most since his rookie season in 2019. The White Sox, however, need a complete makeover after not getting it done with their most recent core.
They already declined the option on former franchise cornerstone shortstop Tim Anderson. Trading Jiménez would be another signal the White Sox are ready to turn the page on this underachieving era.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been rumored before as a potential landing spot for Jiménez. They still make sense for him as a trade partner.
RHP Dylan Cease to Cincinnati Reds
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The Chicago White Sox are reportedly willing to listen to offers for Cease, who will be 28 years old this season. They held onto him at the trade deadline last year with hopes of turning the season around, but they just became worse as the season continued.
But this is the most affordable, logical way for the Cincinnati Reds to acquire front-line starting pitching. Their historical reluctance to pay top dollar for top players rules them out of landing top free agents, but here is a way to improve a rotation that desperately needs it.
As noted by B/R colleague Zachary D. Rymer, the Reds' starters posted at least a 5.55 ERA in all but one of the season's six months.
They won 82 games in spite of that, and certainly could have used competent starting pitching to excel in a winnable NL Central. Cease would provide that and do so for an estimated $8.3 million in 2024 with another year left of club control in '25.
SS Willy Adames to Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers need a shortstop, unless you think Miguel Rojas or Kike Hernández are the answer for a team still chasing another World Series title.
The Brewers, meanwhile, appear to be on the fringes of a rebuild. They have a new general manager, and skipper Craig Counsell bailed to take the same job for the rival Chicago Cubs.
Adames has been solid since being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to Milwaukee. Defensively, only the Cubs' Dansby Swanson had more outs above average at shortstop than Adames this past season. Only five players ranked higher than Adames in that category for the previous season.
He's been an elite defensive shortstop with reliable power in the middle of the Brewers' lineup. The only shortstop with more home runs than Adames since 2021 is Corey Seager, the Dodgers' former shortstop who just won World Series MVP with the Texas Rangers.
This is a good fit for the Dodgers.
1B Pete Alonso to Chicago Cubs
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If the New York Mets do not make any progress on a contract extension for the Alonso, they could aggressively shop the three-time All-Star despite their stated desire to keep him through 2024.
By trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this past deadline, the Mets have already conceded that seriously competing in 2024 is a long shot for them. Holding onto Alonso only makes sense if he's part of their long-term plans.
The Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants are listed by The Athletic's Jim Bowden as potential suitors for Alonso.
The Cubs and Mariners jumped off the page out of this group because they had the weakest production at first base. Out of those two squads, the Cubs typically spend more and seemingly are the most likely to extend Alonso, which is what his agent Scott Boras no doubt will be looking for in his next destination.
RHP Corbin Burnes to Los Angeles Dodgers
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It would not be a proper trades prediction piece without mentioning perennial trade candidate Corbin Burnes.
His name has been floated in trade rumors seemingly for years, but this is when the deal finally gets done. The Dodgers whiffed badly in free agency last year, and their starting pitching took a precipitous fall from 2022.
While they led baseball with the lowest ERA in 2022, the Dodgers dropped to 20th in 2023 as injuries ravaged their starting rotation.
The Los Angeles Times reported last month that the Dodgers are expected to pursue a trade for Burnes, who enters his last season of club control for an estimated $14.1 million.
This price for a former Cy Young Award winner who could lead the Dodgers' rotation seems too good to be true. But the Brewers made this a possibility by not locking down their ace long term when they had the chance, instead haggling over what amounted to pennies in arbitration last year.
OF Juan Soto to New York Yankees
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No way we were getting through this entire article without predicting a blockbuster trade for the New York Yankees (all due respect to Dylan Carlson). Juan Soto also deserves mentioning, because he's the best position player who should be available for trade this offseason.
Surprisingly, the Soto experiment has not worked out for the San Diego Padres since they traded for him ahead of the 2022 deadline.
There are also legitimate questions as to where the Padres would get the money to pay Soto, given his generational talent and how much money they already have tied into players like Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts.
It's possible they were hoping the trade investment would have cashed in by now. But they had an early postseason exit in 2022 and one of the most disappointing campaigns you'll find in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Yankees desperately need to turn things around in a competitive AL East. Soto fills a need in the outfield, providing a prolific left-handed bat and the star power destined for Gotham City. The question is, are the Yankees willing to give up the haul it'll take to land Soto and pair Aaron Judge with another legitimate superstar?
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