Full NBA In-Season Tournament Bracket Predictions
The first-ever NBA In-Season Tournament is officially here, adding an exciting new wrinkle to the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign.
The first group stage games begin on Friday, Nov. 3, with all 30 teams playing four such contests before the calendar turns to December. The complete list of group-stage games can be found here.
The winners of the group stage (along with two wild cards) will advance to the knockout rounds, with the final four teams traveling to Las Vegas for the semifinals and finals.
Predicting a winner will come down to both talent and motivation, as the championship game means playing an 83rd regular-season contest but also puts an extra $500,000 in each member of the winning team's pockets.
Here's how we see the entire 2023-24 In-Season Tournament playing out.
East Group A
1 of 10
Teams: Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons
This is the toughest group in the East, especially since Philly has already solved its James Harden dilemma.
Tyrese Maxey looks like an All-Star thus far, and Joel Embiid is once again putting up MVP-caliber numbers. The Kelly Oubre Jr. signing looks like the steal of free agency (20.0 points on 52.9 percent shooting), and the Sixers are now plenty deep with the additions of Marcus Morris Sr., Robert Covington, Nic Batum and Kenyon Martin Jr.
The Cavaliers are dealing with injuries to both Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen (one combined game thus far), while Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert and Dean Wade have all missed at least one contest in the early going as well. Still, this is easily the second-most talented team in the group, one that has a back-loaded group-play schedule.
Look for the 76ers to win Group A, with the Cavs to finish as a wild card assuming they can get back to full strength before their second group-play game on Nov. 17.
Winner: Philadelphia 76ers (with Cleveland Cavaliers as a wild card)
East Group B
2 of 10
Teams: Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets
The five teams in Group B have collectively begun the season just 7-15 overall and possess the three worst teams by record in the entire East (Heat, Wizards and Hornets).
Even a so-so start by the new-look Bucks shouldn't stop them from winning this group, assuming Khris Middleton can begin to return to form. Milwaukee has already knocked off Miami once this season.
The Knicks are the only other potential winner here, although Julius Randle is going through some real offense struggles at the moment (13.2 points on 27.6 percent shooting).
The Wizards and Hornets are predictably bad, and the Heat don't look like they care that much about the regular season.
Expect the Bucks, and only the Bucks, to advance from this sloppy group.
Winner: Milwaukee Bucks
East Group C
3 of 10
Teams: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic
The Celtics are the NBA's best team at the moment. They're off to a perfect 4-0 start with a league-leading plus-20.1 net rating that nearly doubles the next-closest team (Philadelphia 76ers, plus-11.8 rating).
Kristaps Porziņģis has fit in perfectly as a third option thus far (18.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 45.0 percent from three), while Jrue Holiday and Derrick White make up the best defensive backcourt in the NBA.
The Nets are off to a solid start, but we'll need to see if Cam Thomas' hot start can be sustained. He averaged 33.0 points per game in his first three contests, but he came crashing back to earth with 13 points on 4-of-19 shooting against the Miami Heat on Wednesday.
Toronto had a nice win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday but has otherwise looked sloppy offensively. Chicago and Orlando are a combined 5-5 to begin the year.
This is clearly the Celtics' group, with no real threat to challenge them for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Winner: Boston Celtics
West Group A
4 of 10
Teams: Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers
The Grizzlies being the last team to win a game this season (0-5) doesn't bode well for the overall strength of this group, especially since they will be without Ja Morant for the entirety of the group-play stage due to his 25-game suspension.
The Jazz and Blazers are a combined 4-7 on the young season and look destined to finish below .500 overall, which leaves the Suns and Lakers as the top contenders here.
For now, Los Angeles is the healthier of the two, with Phoenix getting only two games out of Devin Booker and Bradley Beal thus far. Still, both the Lakers and Suns are veteran-led groups that may not even want to play an extra game this season as the tournament marches on.
L.A. advances while Phoenix still tries to assemble healthy bodies and a consistent rotation.
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers
West Group B
5 of 10
Teams: Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets
This may be the best group of all, one that features three of the top four teams in the Western Conference standings (Mavs, Nuggets and Pelicans). The Clippers also have the third-highest net rating in the NBA (plus-11.6) and just added James Harden as well. Houston is off to just a 1-3 start, but this is a young group with new veteran pieces that will only get better as the season moves along.
We can't not pick Denver to advance, as the defending champions shouldn't feel any pressure during In-Season Tournament games after going 16-4 in the playoffs last season.
The Mavericks' 4-0 start is a bit deceiving, as only one of their first four opponents is currently over .500 (San Antonio).
Instead, the Pelicans are our wild-card pick here. They're off to a 4-1 start, including a 22-point comeback to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Winner: Denver Nuggets (with New Orleans Pelicans as a wild card)
West Group C
6 of 10
Teams: Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs
Like Group B, this is one of the stronger overall groups in the NBA.
All five teams here currently possess a record of .500 or better, with everyone but the Spurs at least reaching the play-in tournament last year.
The Kings are currently missing All-Star point guard De'Aaron Fox, who's sidelined indefinitely with a sprained right ankle. The Warriors have done the right thing by moving Chris Paul to the bench, where he's a plus-44 overall in three Golden State wins.
Oklahoma City is going to be one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA as the season moves along, but it's still integrating Chet Holmgren and finding an ideal rotation for now. A humbling 128-95 loss to the Denver Nuggets proves that OKC is still a tier or two away from being an elite team in the West.
The Timberwolves had a statement win over the Nuggets but are off to another slow start with their Big Three of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert all sharing the floor (minus-1.2 net rating in 152 possessions).
The veteran Warriors are still the best of this bunch.
Winner: Golden State Warriors
East Knockout Round Quarterfinals
7 of 10
Matchup: Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
This could be a sneaky pick for the Eastern Conference Finals as well, especially if the Cavs can get hot this spring.
Still, Boston is clearly in a tier above the Cavs with a core that's already been to an NBA Finals and with a backcourt in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White that can hold Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in check.
Cleveland simply doesn't have enough offense from the rest of the roster if their guards aren't putting up 50-ish points a night. Boston moves on.
Matchup: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
While the Bucks may be the better team come playoff time, the Sixers may actually be the better team right now.
Philly only lost to Milwaukee by one point in the season opener, and that was before the team traded James Harden (who didn't play in that contest) for Marcus Morris Sr., Robert Covington, Nic Batum and Kenyon Martin Jr.
The 76ers suddenly have a lot of lengthy forwards whom they can use to help limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's impact. With Khris Middleton struggling mightily to begin the season, look for the new-look Sixers to advance.
Winners: Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers
West Knockout Round Quarterfinals
8 of 10
Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
A rematch of the Western Conference Finals will end in much the same way here, as the Nuggets are simply the better team. They already beat the Lakers by 12 on opening night.
LeBron James isn't going to play 40-plus minutes to try to win an In-Season Tournament game as he prepares for NBA title No. 5. Anthony Davis hasn't scored 30 or more in a game against Nikola Jokić since the 2019-20 season, a streak of nine straight contests.
Denver should still be considered the best in the West.
Matchup: Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
One of the veteran powers in the conference collides with a young franchise eager to plant its flag at the top.
This should be an extremely close game, especially if both rosters are at (or close to) 100 percent healthy. Zion Williamson is as big a test as any for Draymond Green, although asking CJ McCollum to slow down Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson may be even more difficult.
The Warriors' experience in big games ultimately wins out here.
Winners: Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors
Knockout Round Semifinals
9 of 10
East Matchup: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The final four teams in the In-Season Tournament will now head to Las Vegas, where the prize money jumps to a minimum of $100,000 per player.
We get a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals here, except it will look quite different.
James Harden, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams III and Malcolm Brogdon are out. Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday, Kelly Oubre Jr, Marcus Morris Sr., Robert Covington and others are in. In the end, however, this game will still come down to the incumbent superstars.
Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey could have monster games, but it may not be enough. Boston is the NBA's best team right now and should want to win this tournament and prove this squad can go back to the Finals and win.
The Celtics are red-hot and will earn their spot in the In-Season Tournament championship.
West Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
The past two NBA champions meet here, and while we should be in for a terrific game, neither team is going to play their stars big minutes just to try to win what ultimately counts as one regular-season contest.
It's tough to pick against the Nuggets, especially since Denver beat the Warriors in all three of their meetings last season. The last time Golden State won a regular-season game against Denver was March 10, 2022.
Nikola Jokić averaged 24.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 13.0 assists and had shooting splits of 61.5/50.0/93.8 against the Warriors last season, doing whatever he wanted against Golden State. Expect more of the same here as the Nuggets move on.
Winners: Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets
In-Season Tournament Championship
10 of 10
Matchup: Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets
Boston and Denver are two high-powered locomotives headed full-steam toward each other in what could be a preview of the 2024 NBA Finals.
While the teams are both loaded with talent, who ultimately wants to win this more?
Nikola Jokić will be the best player on the floor, but he may just view this as an extra day at work given that it counts as Game No. 83. If there was ever an NBA player who wanted to get out of Las Vegas, didn't care about the extra prize money and just wanted to go home, it's Jokić.
This game should mean more for the new-look Celtics, a group that is looking to build as much momentum and chemistry as possible before the real playoffs begin. The Nuggets don't need to win this game to validate their group's success. They did that last June.
Michael Porter Jr. is going to have to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, while Jrue Holiday and Derrick White will make life miserable for Jamal Murray. Even if Jokić puts up a 30-point triple-double, it may not be enough. Making him guard Kristaps Porziņģis all the way out to the three-point line will open things up inside for the Celtics as well.
Boston will win the first-ever In-Season Tournament.
Winner: Boston Celtics
