Trade Predictions for Every NBA Team This Season
There was plenty of player movement this NBA offseason.
Damian Lillard is now a Milwaukee Buck. Bradley Beal is on the Phoenix Suns. Chris Paul is rocking the Golden State Warriors' blue and gold.
The last several years have taught us that the rumor mill never stops churning. Teams are almost always in flux. And there will be plenty more deals between now and the Feb. 8 trade deadline.
Let's go through predictions about whom each of the league's 30 teams will or won't move.
Atlanta Hawks Trade Clint Capela
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The Atlanta Hawks have quietly assembled a lot of young wing and frontcourt talent in De'Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson. But the most intriguing player on the roster outside of point guard Trae Young may be Onyeka Okongwu.
Because Clint Capela is still on the team, Okongwu will probably have to come off the bench and might even play some 4, but he's more naturally suited to play minutes at center. Even though he's two inches shorter than Capela, he may give the Hawks a higher ceiling than the incumbent 5.
He's more nimble on defensive switches onto the perimeter. His scoring range extends a bit further outside the restricted area than Capela's. And he can still be an above-the-rim finisher out of the pick-and-roll for Young and Dejounte Murray.
Moving Capela for more shooting would open that spot up in the starting five for Okongwu, and it could even lead to more minutes for players like Bey, Griffin and Johnson.
Boston Celtics Are Done Making Trades
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The Boston Celtics already went for broke this summer when they acquired Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday.
Generally speaking, their assets are spent. That's probably fine.
Following the busy summer, this summer is good enough to win the championship. They'll be at or near the top of the East's standings when the trade deadline rolls around, and the front office won't rock the boat between now and then.
Brooklyn Nets Are Done Making Trades
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Like Boston, the Brooklyn Nets won't make any trades between now and February. The reasoning behind their lack of transactions is a little different, though.
Brooklyn's big trades came in the middle of last season, when they unloaded Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Thanks to those deals, Brooklyn now has a versatile, largely positionless bunch of talented forwards that includes Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale.
And now they have a hopefully healthy Ben Simmons returning to the rotation.
There's a lot to figure out with this roster. It'll take more than the three months before February to do it.
Given the contenders currently at the top of the East, the Nets shouldn't be in a hurry to contend. They have time to feel this out.
Charlotte Hornets Trade Gordon Hayward
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The Charlotte Hornets are a tough team to nail down.
A presumably healthy LaMelo Ball should help the win-loss record, but Miles Bridges was recently arrested for an alleged violation of a protective order, and rookie forward Brandon Miller was named as a defendant in a wrongful death lawsuit.
There may not be enough stability throughout the rest of the rotation to overcome any potential absences for Bridges and/or Miller.
If the Hornets are near the bottom of the East in February, which feels like a real possibility, the front office will likely explore moving veterans like Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. If Hayward is still healthy by that point, some contender may be interested in a half-season rental of the versatile forward, who's on an expiring contract.
Chicago Bulls Trade Lonzo Ball
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Chicago Bulls point guard Lonzo Ball is set to miss a second consecutive season recovering from a knee injury, which sounds like it would crater his trade value.
But there's actually a path to a deal that could help both the Bulls and whichever team might take on the rest of Ball's contract, which runs through 2024-25 if he picks up his $21.4 million player option.
There are plenty of veterans on rebuilding teams who could improve the Bulls' shot at winning games this season. Those teams could be interested in moving closer to the bottom of the standings and the draft asset that would likely come back from Chicago with Ball.
Cleveland Cavaliers Explore the Markets for Jarrett Allen... and Donovan Mitchell
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The Cleveland Cavaliers' two-big lineup worked brilliantly in the 2022-23 regular season, but the offense fell apart during a five-game, first-round loss to the New York Knicks. If Evan Mobley fails to add a reliable outside shot and their spacing feels similarly cramped this year Cleveland might at least explore the market for Jarrett Allen.
Mobley can provide a similar impact as a rim-protector and rim-runner as Allen, and he's more versatile as a passer and perimeter defender. Making him the full-time 5 and replacing Allen with another shooter could open things up for the Cavs.
That isn't the only trade possibility Cleveland should at least entertain. Despite having his best individual season with the Cavaliers last year, there's still plenty of buzz about Donovan Mitchell wanting to eventually end up with his hometown New York Knicks.
If there's truth behind that buzz, the Cavs will have to think about shopping Mitchell at some point. If he's going to leave anyway, Cleveland is much better off getting something for him now than eventually losing him for nothing.
Unloading Allen and Mitchell might cause the Cavs to take a half-step back in the short term, but they'd still have two young, All-Star level talents in Mobley and Darius Garland to build around.
Dallas Mavericks Trade Tim Hardaway Jr.
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Unless the fit between Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić falls apart, Tim Hardaway Jr.'s contract feels like the Dallas Mavericks' safest bet for a trade.
Given the pressure that could come as a result of having Kyrie and Luka on the roster, the front office will almost certainly chase win-now trades if the Mavs don't get off to a hot start.
With the depth of talent currently in the Western Conference, that kind of hot start may not be in the cards for the Mavs, who are loaded with question marks after their top two.
Denver Nuggets Are Done Making Trades
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Before the Denver Nuggets signed fourth-year forward Zeke Nnaji to a four-year, $32 million extension on Saturday, he seemed like their likeliest trade chip.
Moving him isn't entirely out of the question, but it's a lot trickier this year thanks to the poison-pill provision. His incoming salary and outgoing salary in a trade will be two different figures until his extension officially takes effect next July.
It's thus a fairly safe bet that the reigning champions, who are already bringing back their entire starting five, will stand pat this season.
Detroit Pistons Trade Bojan Bogdanović or Alec Burks
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The Detroit Pistons have several exciting young players, including Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausur Thompson and Jalen Duren. However, they still might not even finish among the top 10 in the Eastern Conference.
If their hopes of making the play-in tournament look far-fetched in January and February, they'll likely think about moving veterans for more assets. They have two who are good enough to potentially bring back long-term value in Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks.
Both moving may not be likely, but one is certainly in play.
Golden State Warriors Trade Moses Moody
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The Golden State Warriors made their big move this summer when they acquired Chris Paul from the Washington Wizards in a trade that cost them Jordan Poole.
Any remaining upgrades to the roster would likely have to happen on the fringes, and they'd probably require the loss of another young talent.
Jonathan Kuminga led the team in preseason scoring and is the highest-upside prospect remaining on the roster. Therefore, the likelier trade candidate is Moses Moody.
Amidst a possible "Last Dance" type of season, the Warriors will want to make an upgrade at some point between now and February.
Houston Rockets Trade Jae'Sean Tate or Reggie Bullock
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The Houston Rockets have plenty of young talent on the wing that they'll need to get a look at this season.
There are only 144 minutes to be had at spots 2 through 4 in the lineup. Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore will all be vying for their piece of that.
If 32-year-old Reggie Bullock and soon-to-be-28-year old Jae'Sean Tate are in the rotation, it could delay the development of some of the younger prospects who are more likely to be a part of the long-term future. Don't be surprised if the Rockets deem one or both of them expendable.
Indiana Pacers Trade Buddy Hield
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This one may seem like a layup after Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported last month that the Indiana Pacers were looking for potential Buddy Hield trades, but he's still around. And the front office is indicating he might last the season with the Pacers.
But Hield is one of the best outside shooters of all time, which should make him valuable throughout the league.
Some team in need of more three-point volume will eventually make Indiana an offer it can't turn down. That will open up more developmental minutes for young guards and wings like Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith.
Los Angeles Clippers Don't Trade for James Harden
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James Harden requested a trade to the Los Angeles Clippers in late June, but it still hasn't happened. The supposed reason for the holdup—L.A. reportedly not wanting to surrender Terance Mann—is almost starting to feel like a facade.
Mann, who just turned 27, has a career average of 8.0 points and ranked in the 61st percentile in estimated plus-minus last season. It's not like he's a young prospect who's sure to blossom into stardom. Treating him like an untouchable asset feels like a nicer way of saying, "We just don't want Harden."
While the talent and skill fit with Harden might make sense for L.A., being out on him wouldn't be shocking. The 34-year-old has now quit on three teams in four years and presumably wants a big-money, long-term contract next summer.
Adding him certainly isn't a no-brainer. If Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can stay healthy—far from a guarantee, of course—the "two stars and depth" model could still lead the Clippers on a deep playoff run.
Los Angeles Lakers Trade D'Angelo Russell
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The two-year, $36 million contract D'Angelo Russell signed with the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason seems an awful lot like possible trade bait.
His $17.3 million salary for 2023-24 will be easily movable once he becomes eligible for a trade on Dec. 15. If the Lakers aggregate his contract with Rui Hachimura's $15.7 million salary, they might even be able to land another star.
LeBron James' front offices almost always feel pressure to make a win-now move in February. As a result, Russell could be on his way out of L.A. at some point this season.
Memphis Grizzlies Trade for a Center
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Memphis Grizzlies fans got some terrible news Sunday when The Athletic's Shams Charania reported that starting center Steven Adams would undergo season-ending knee surgery.
Thanks to the obvious needs that Adams filled as a rebounder and enforcer alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. (who does little of either), Memphis has been significantly better when he plays. Over his two seasons there, the Grizzlies are plus-8.5 points per 100 possessions when he plays and plus-2.8 when he doesn't.
The Grizzlies could slide JJJ over to the 5 and play a sleeker, faster brand of basketball, but those lineups might get crushed on the glass. The depth chart at center is grim after that.
They almost have to address this need through a trade, and there are a few good candidates in the West they could (and probably will) go after.
Robert Williams III isn't too far off the timeline of the rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers—the 26-year-old is only a year older than Deandre Ayton—but maybe they'd be enticed to move him for a draft asset. Utah Jazz big man Kelly Olynyk may add wins to a team that could actually intend on losing and improving its draft lottery odds.
Whoever it is, Memphis now needs a center. And it'll add one before the trade deadline.
Miami Heat Trade Tyler Herro
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Tyler Herro seems excited to tip off a revenge tour after seeing his name in trade rumors throughout the summer, but he remains the Miami Heat's most obvious trade chip.
Following a summer in which the Boston Celtics added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis and the Milwaukee Bucks added Damian Lillard, Miami may be feeling pressure to do something big.
Herro could very well develop into a star (particularly on offense), but Jimmy Butler's window to compete for a title is starting to close. He's 34 years old, and though he deserves a ton of credit for two unexpected runs to the NBA Finals, his teams looked thoroughly outmatched in those series.
A big-name No. 3 to go with Butler and Bam Adebayo could close the gap between the Heat and the league's best teams. The Heat probably aren't getting that without giving up Herro.
Milwaukee Bucks Are Done Making Moves
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Three years after emptying their asset bank for Jrue Holiday, the Milwaukee Bucks essentially did the same thing for Damian Lillard this summer.
Following the acquisition, the Bucks don't have control over their own first-round pick until 2031. They have only two second-round picks between now and then, too.
For all intents and purposes, the cupboard is bare.
They might be able to get something for MarJon Beauchamp and salary filler, but likely not enough to justify giving up one of the only intriguing young talents on the roster.
Minnesota Timberwolves Don't Trade Karl-Anthony Towns
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Most of the trade buzz emanating from Minnesota over the last several months has revolved around Karl-Anthony Towns.
If Anthony Edwards is the clear No. 1 on the team, and the Timberwolves have almost $54 million committed to Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid this year, it's hard to justify KAT's $36.0 million salary. That's especially true when you consider the struggles Towns and Gobert had fitting together in the first year of this partnership.
But moving Towns now feels like doubling down on a trade that probably never should've been made.
Towns is still on the right side of 30 (he turns 28 in November) and has averaged 23.0 points and 1.6 threes while shooting 39.5 percent from deep for his career. His shooting should make the fit between him and Gobert at least passable. They just didn't have enough time to jell in 2022-23 due to Towns' calf injury.
If those two can survive the rest of Gobert's contract, Minnesota would emerge with one of the best shooting bigs ever still in his prime, right as Edwards is hitting his.
If the Wolves could get a high-end wing in a Towns deal, they'd have to think about it. But the current concerns about his defense are likely preventing that kind of offer right now.
New Orleans Pelicans Don't Make a Trade
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Outside the draft and a few back-end-of-the-rotation free-agency moves, the New Orleans Pelicans had a quiet offseason on the transaction front.
While moving veterans Jonas Valančiūnas or CJ McCollum might make some sense, consider this a bet that the front office stays relatively quiet throughout 2023-24.
Over his season-and-a-half with the team, McCollum has played only 172 total minutes with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. Add Valančiūnas to the mix, and the sample size dips to 120 minutes.
The Pelicans haven't had enough time to assess how good this team can be when everyone's healthy. Hopefully, they'll finally have the chance to do that this season.
New York Knicks Trade Evan Fournier
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Predicting that the New York Knicks will trade Evan Fournier is a layup. After completely falling out of the rotation last season, Fournier said he feels like the organization is holding him "hostage."
It's kind of hard to blame him.
Fournier turns 31 on Oct. 29. Over the last four seasons, he's averaged 15.0 points and hit 39.0 percent of his three-point attempts. But he played only 27 games last season.
Fournier is essentially on an expiring contract this season, as he has a $19 million team option in 2024-25. Some team will offer New York enough for a few months of his shooting to justify a deal.
Oklahoma City Thunder Don't Do Anything Dramatic
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Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti has already telegraphed his intention to exercise some patience with his exciting young core.
Although Presti wouldn't be the first front office executive to depart from a publicly stated path, it's easy to see why OKC would slow-play this next step of its rebuild.
The Thunder already have a All-NBA first-team guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Josh Giddey is one of the league's most intriguing young playmakers thanks to his size, rebounding and vision. Jalen Williams had a legitimate Rookie of the Year case last season. And Chet Holmgren's rim protection and wide-ranging offensive skills should fill a lot of gaps.
Based on organic development alone, OKC could be a title contender within the next few seasons.
Orlando Magic Trade Jonathan Isaac
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After the Thunder, the Orlando Magic may have the next-most exciting core of young talent in the NBA.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are 6'10" and 6'9", respectively, and both have legitimate point forward upside. Starting center Wendell Carter Jr. is already a Swiss army knife-like 5 who can protect the paint, survive on perimeter switches and even pass a bit.
Thanks to those three, the Magic don't have many leftover minutes for Jonathan Isaac. Even if they did, his total of 45 appearances over the last four seasons doesn't inspire much confidence that he'd be available for them.
That doesn't necessarily eliminate his trade value, though. Isaac's $17.4 million salary this season is only partially guaranteed, and his $17.4 million salary in 2024-25 is entirely non-guaranteed. In other words, a team angling for salary-cap flexibility could go after Isaac for that reason alone.
If he managed to stay healthy and remind everyone of his defensive upside and versatility, that'd be a bonus. In that case, his contract would be a steal.
Philadelphia 76ers Trade James Harden... But It Takes a While
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We already predicted that the Los Angeles Clippers won't trade for James Harden, but that doesn't mean he's guaranteed to stay with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Instead, this could play out a lot like the Damian Lillard situation did for the Miami Heat.
After spending most of the summer seemingly withholding their best offer for Lillard, Miami was surprisingly undercut by the Milwaukee Bucks. L.A. refusing to include Mann in its offers is giving other teams an opportunity to do what Milwaukee did.
As he did with the Ben Simmons situation two years ago, 76ers president Daryl Morey will patiently wait for a better offer from anyone else before he makes a move.
Phoenix Suns Are Done Making Moves
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Like a few other teams around the league, the Phoenix Suns have already spent all their trade capital.
After they acquired Bradley Beal early in the summer, a depth-building trade involving Deandre Ayton felt inevitable. That finally happened in late September.
Now, the Suns' roster is basically locked in. They have three max players (Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant), two mid-sized salaries in Jusuf Nurkić and Grayson Allen and a number of players on veteran-minimum contracts.
Those min-deal role players will be eligible to be traded in a few months, but it's hard to imagine their value being high enough for Phoenix to do anything meaningful with them.
Portland Trail Blazers Trade Malcolm Brogdon
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The Portland Trail Blazers could decide to keep Malcolm Brogdon around as a veteran mentor for Scoot Henderson. But he could undoubtedly get them additional long-term assets via a trade.
Brogdon averaged 14.9 points while shooting 44.4 percent from three en route to winning Sixth Man of the Year in 2022-23. Some team should be willing to part with a draft pick to add him to its guard rotation.
Brogdon and Robert Williams III both feel like relatively safe bets to be moved, but Brogdon being 30 years old makes him the likelier candidate.
Sacramento Kings Explore Market for Harrison Barnes
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After finishing as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference last season with an up-and-coming roster, the Sacramento Kings mostly stood pat this offseason.
The approach was understandable, given the fact that their two best players—Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox—are 27 and 25, respectively.
But if the Kings are going to jump up to the West's top tier of contenders—where the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns figure to be—they may need to pair Harrison Barnes with some draft assets in hopes of upgrading that forward spot.
San Antonio Spurs Trade Doug McDermott
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The San Antonio Spurs planning to start Jeremy Sochan at point guard is a good indication that they're committed to the young Victor Wembanyama-led core.
While there's certainly value in surrounding young talent with experience, there will come a point in the season when the value falls short of adding a draft asset.
Long-range specialist Doug McDermott is on a $13.8 million expiring contract. If he maintains his career 41.0 three-point percentage into February, some team will want to add his shooting.
For San Antonio, even getting a few second-rounders back would be preferable to losing McDermott in free agency for nothing next summer.
Toronto Raptors Trade Multiple Veterans
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The Toronto Raptors were the picture of mediocrity for much of last season. While a new head coach and development from Scottie Barnes could help them level up, replacing Fred VanVleet with Dennis Schröder and continuing to overextend Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby could send them the other direction.
All three of those veterans could be better a step or two down in a team's offensive hierarchy. There's a reason Siakam had his career-high true shooting percentage in 2018-19, when Kawhi Leonard was on the team.
There are surely other organizations around the league that could cast Siakam or Anunoby in those roles. Moving both for players and assets that better set Toronto up for the future and turn more responsibility over to Barnes would improve the Raptors' long-term position.
Utah Jazz Trade Kelly Olynyk
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Since the start of the summer of 2022, the Utah Jazz have traded Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley in moves that clearly signaled the start of a rebuild. Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler being better than expected helped keep the team away from the bottom of the 2022-23 standings, though.
Improving lottery odds for next summer might require trading more veterans.
One of the most intriguing candidates is Kelly Olynyk, who averaged 12.5 points and a career-high 3.7 assists while shooting 39.4 percent from deep last season.
His shooting, playmaking and experience would be a boon to most reserve frontcourts. Some contender will make an offer for him that Utah will have to consider.
Washington Wizards Explore Market for Kyle Kuzma
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The Washington Wizards aren't likely to be in the market for wins this season.
After moving Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis this summer, good lottery odds are probably more important to Washington than sneaking into the play-in tournament. But productive players like Kyle Kuzma and Tyus Jones may make it tough to avoid the latter.
Both have proven capable of contributing to good teams. Trading Kuzma in particular should return some long-term value while opening up developmental minutes for forwards like Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats provided by Basketball Reference, PBPStats.com, NBA.com/stats and Cleaning the Glass.
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