NFL Futures Betting Odds 2023-24: Best Picks for Super Bowl 58 Entering Week 6
The NFL season continues to barrel along, and five weeks in, the playoff picture starts to come into slightly fuzzy focus.
A lot can happen in the NFL between Halloween and New Year's, but with more than a quarter of the season in the books, Vegas has favored the same franchises week after week to win it all come February.
Unsurprisingly, the league's two remaining undefeated teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, continually find themselves with top Super Bowl futures odds. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are always oscillating within the top three, as well.
But other teams, such as the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins have all entered the top three at one point or another, proving that entering Week 6, there truly is no heavy Super Bowl favorite.
Let's break down three of the teams with the best Super Bowl odds this week.
San Francisco 49ers
1 of 3
Super Bowl odds: +350
Ahead of Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers were tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best Super Bowl odds.
This week, however, they've moved solely into position as Vegas favorites, coming in at +350 compared to the Chiefs' odds of +550.
The Niners are one of only two undefeated teams reamaining in the league this season, and they're coming off a complete trouncing of the Dallas Cowboys 42-10. (Needless to say, the Cowboys' Super Bowl odds have dropped as a result, falling to +1500, sixth-highest in the league.)
Dallas' No. 1 defense was no match for Brock Purdy and the Niners' high-powered offense. Purdy had four touchdowns—three of them to tight end George Kittle—and no interceptions for a near-perfect rating of 144.4.
The 49ers defense, in turn, terrorized Dak Prescott, sacking him three times and picking him off three times as well. That balance—the 49ers boast the league's No. 3 offense and No. 3 defense—is why Vegas is so high on this squad.
Kansas City Chiefs
2 of 3
Super Bowl odds: +550
The Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl odds have remained the same from Week 5 to Week 6, and similarly, the team has remained steady on the field. Their highs haven't been as high as some of the other Super Bowl favorites in the league, but their floor remains high.
After dropping their first game of the season to the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs have won five in a row, including Thursday night against the Denver Broncos 18-9. Was it a spectacular win? No. Patrick Mahomes continues to prove that he is, in fact, human; he had one pick for one touchdown, and the Chiefs converted only one of five trips to the red zone.
But Kansas City's defense held off Russell Wilson and the Broncos; Wilson's ghastly statline included one touchdowns and two interceptions for just 95 yards and the team had only 197 yards of total offense overall. Travis Kelce, by comparison, alone had 124 receiving yards.
To be sure, the Chiefs' red-zone woes, should they continue, may incline Vegas to lower their Super Bowl odds. Though Kansas City is tied for seventh in red-zone scoring percentage on the year overall, at 63.16 percent, that's down from 71.08 percent in 2022, and it drops to 45.45 percent on the road.
But there are no points awarded for style, and as long as the Chiefs can keep finding ways to win, Mahomes and the offense can afford to have an average outing from time to time.
Miami Dolphins
3 of 3
Super Bowl odds: +900
Technically, the team with the third-best Super Bowl odds heading into Week 6 is the Philadelphia Eagles, who remain undefeated and are coming off a Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Rams 23-14.
We've typically stuck strictly to featuring the top three teams with the best Super Bowl odds week upon week. But the Eagles have been in and out of these futures rankings all season, and so for a change of pace, we're actually going to feature the team with the fourth highest-Super Bowl odds, the Miami Dolphins. They're favored just slightly less than the Eagles (+800) and have been an exciting team on the rise this season.
The 4-1 Dolphins got out to a hot start, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos before suffering their first loss in Week 4 at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, 48-20.
That may have raised some alarm bells, because Miami's first three opponents weren't exactly world-beaters, and the Bills, as we've established, are also among the top Super Bowl favorites. The Dolphins came back to win in Week 5 against the New York Giants...but again, is that really proving anything?
You may want to wait and see how the Dolphins fare in Week 7 against the Eagles before placing your futures bets. But if they can emerge triumphant against Philly, this team will have shown it has what it takes to play into February.
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