Predicting the NBA's All-Overpaid Team This Season
Rising NBA salary-cap projections have largely changed the way we look at individual pay grades. Truly back-breaking contracts are rare for the time being.
"Rare" does not mean extinct. And it's even easier to shine the limelight over team-unfriendly terms when looking at single-year costs.
That's the task laid before us here. The NBA's All-Overpaid Team for 2023-24 is not a list of the league's worst contracts from a front office's perspective. It's a collection of players who I expect to provide the worst value during this season alone relative to their 2023-24 salary.
Unlike the All-Underpaid Team, there will be no playing-time minimum. Bite-sized and unclear roles actually contribute to the overpaid criterion when you're paid like someone who should feature more prominently in a rotation.
Anyone suffering from an injury that is already expected to sideline them—such as Lonzo Ball— will not be included. Those circumstances are totally beyond their control. Kevin Porter Jr. will not be included, either. He is away from the Houston Rockets amid felony assault and strangulation charges, and his NBA future remains uncertain as a result.
Finally, this exercise is not meant to be a personal shot at anyone who appears here. These players didn't force teams to offer these contracts, and this is one of this instances in which I will welcome being hopelessly, hilariously wrong.
The NBA's All-Overpaid 2nd Team (Honorable Mentions)
1 of 6
Backcourt
Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets
- 2023-24 Base Salary: $40,806,300
- Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 30.00
Jordan Poole, Washington Wizards
- 2023-24 Base Salary: $27,455,357
- Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 20.55
Frontcourt
Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets
- 2023-24 Base Salary: $22,627,671
- Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 16.64
Gordon Hayward, Charlotte Hornets
- 2023-24 Base Salary: $31,500,000
- Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 23.16
Deandre Ayton, Portland Trail Blazers
- 2023-24 Base Salary: $32,459,438
- Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 23.86
Backcourt: Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
2 of 6
2023-24 Base Salary: $37,893,408
Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 27.86
Another offseason's worth of quality workouts, optimistic assessments and generally refreshing vibes isn't enough to spare Ben Simmons from this exercise. We have officially—and long ago—reached the "believe it when we see it" portion of the prospective Ben Simmons renaissance.
Here's to hoping we get to see it. But we now have seasons' worth of evidence pointing to the contrary.
Injuries are part of Simmons' on-court retrenchment. They're not altogether responsible for where he sits in the league's pecking order now. He was always a, let's say, hyper-specific fit. Recently, though, he's become unworkably timid. His size, vision and finishing can mean only so much when he's less of a threat to end possessions with a shot attempt and, by all appearances, seems wholly averse to getting fouled and reaping the should-be benefits of free throws that can come with it.
Make no mistake, Simmons still defends his butt off. But his offensive regression is more like a flat-out collapse and reflected in the minutes he's no longer guaranteed. That uncertainty is damning to any team when it's coming from a player paid like a superstar fulcrum.
Backcourt: evan Fournier, New York Knicks
3 of 6
2023-24 Base Salary: $18,857,143
Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 13.86
Evan Fournier exited the potentially meaningful phase of his contract almost a year ago. The New York Knicks bounced him from the rotation by mid-November of last season. He is now, thanks to next year's team option, considered a human trade exception.
The state of affairs is to some degree outside Fournier's purview. New York is overrun with guards-who-aren't-quite-wings and opted to go in a different direction. That happens.
It nevertheless says a lot that the Knicks jettisoned Fournier from the playable-body pool when they needed—and still sort of need—proven three-point volume and efficiency. He did himself zero favors by connecting on under 34 percent of his long balls last year.
Going on 31 (Oct. 29), Fournier's outside touch is not beyond return. Barring injury, though, the Knicks' rotation is even more closed off following the addition of Donte DiVincenzo, who was much better from deep last season, provides more movement and playmaking and, you know, can actually defend.
Perhaps Fournier plays himself off this list by year's end. It'll be shocking, however, if he does so while a member of the Knicks.
Frontcourt: Marvin Bagley III, Detroit Pistons
4 of 6
2023-24 Base Salary: $12,500,000
Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 9.19
Giving Marvin Bagley III three guaranteed years last summer was a curious move by the Detroit Pistons, even at a modest number. Unless you think his salary will be used in a critical trade prior to February's deadline, the deal doesn't look any better now.
It actually looks worse.
Detroit is flush with more pivotal bodies on the frontline. Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart are already better, and James Wiseman remains a more intriguing flier for his physical tools alone.
Knee, hand and ankle issues limited Bagley to just 42 appearances last year. Even if he stays healthy, may be lucky to rack up that many cameos this season. At the very least, it's tough to imagine him sniffing the 23-plus minutes per game he averaged in 2022-23.
Maybe the Pistons and new head coach Monty Williams are prepared to give him extended run, previous results be damned. On some level, though, that feels like a non-starter. Detroit needs to uncork lineups featuring Bojan Bogdanović at the 4, and Bagley's mid-range (35.7 percent) and three-point (28.8 percent) aren't nearly high enough to value him as part of dual-big setups.
Frontcourt: Dāvis Bertāns, Oklahoma City Thunder
5 of 6
2023-24 Base Salary: $17,000,000
Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 12.50
Dāvis Bertāns still has utility has a long-range sniper. He is a career 39.8 percent shooter from distance, and his 9.3 attempts per 36 minutes rank sixth among the 192 players who have logged as much court time since he entered the league in 2016-17.
Jacking threes is Bertāns' only bankable skill, though. He is a liability on defense, shouldn't be tasked with dribbling inside the arc and has a higher career turnover rate than assist percentage.
Moreover, his already-limited value is further complicated by a lack of versatility. Playing him at the 3 is a no-go, and he neither rebounds nor protects the basket well enough to soak up time at the 5.
Granted, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the perimeter defenders to try getting by when he plays. Yet, why bother?
Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren and Kenrich Williams-at-the-5 arrangements ensure the center rotation is on lock. And taking away power forward minutes from Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokuševski or, hell, even Josh Giddey and Lu Dort (it has happened!) makes approximately zero sense.
Frontcourt: Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic
6 of 6
2023-24 Base Salary: $17,400,000
Percentage of the 2023-24 Salary Cap: 12.79
Jonathan Isaac is apparently ready to rock, an outlook we should take with a metric ton of salt. Meniscus, ACL, hamstring and adductor injuries have limited him to 45 total games over the past four seasons.
Doling out demerits because of injuries is never fun. But Isaac's inclusion is more than his checkered availability. His place within the Orlando Magic's core is hazy, if not outright expired.
Peak Isaac was a defensive system unto himself, a force that battled against archetypal constructs. But the Magic no longer need a North Star on the less glamorous end. They were sixth in points allowed per possession for a large chunk of last season.
Refining the half-court offense and spacing are the more pivotal priorities. Isaac doesn't nudge the needle in either department. And this says nothing of the personnel squeeze.
Orlando already had the top of their combo forward and big rotation set with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. Adding three other 6'7" to 6'9" players in Anthony Black, Jett Howard and Joe Ingles threatens to leave even a healthy Isaac out in the cold.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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