Every NBA Team's 1 Player Who Can Surprise Us Most
A new NBA season excites for myriad reasons, not the least of which is the element of the unknowns.
And it's not just the many new faces in new places. After a summer spent in the proverbial lab, a lot of players return with new elements in their game and potential opportunities to show them off.
The upcoming 2023-24 campaign could be full of surprises, and the following players all have a chance to author some of those new developments. Since offseason optimism remains in heavy supply, this will focus on those capable of surprising for good reasons.
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson
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There is a frenetic nature to Johnson's game that Atlanta won't want to dial back too much. Part of his appeal is his "everything, everywhere, all at once" versatility, so the Hawks should give him as much freedom as they can afford.
Still, everything feels a little rushed right now, so Atlanta needs to show him how to downshift from 1.75x speed to a 1.5x pace. Given his anti-gravity bounce and long strides, he'd still be a step (or more) ahead of most defenders even if he isn't always burying the needle of his speedometer.
His shooting touch is either iffy or simply nonexistent, but you won't find many warts beyond that. His comfort handling the ball could give the Hawks some extra zip on grab-and-go rebounds, and he can do anything other than pop on either end of pick-and-roll plays. With John Collins out of Atlanta and no replacement added this offseason, Johnson has a real opportunity to play a much larger role in this rotation.
Boston Celtics: Jordan Walsh
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Going the snarky route is an option here by highlighting how surprising it would be if Boston gets fully healthy seasons from both Kristaps Porziņģis and Robert Williams III. But what's the fun in that?
It's far more intriguing to imagine Walsh becoming the rare second-round rookie to positively impact a championship contender. Granted, the odds of it happening aren't great, but Boston has needs for a shape-shifting frontcourt stopper with Grant Williams gone and a full-throttle hustler without Marcus Smart, and Walsh checks both boxes in his best-case scenario.
Shooting will be a challenge, and if it gets to the point that he is wrecking the offensive spacing, he'll seldom see the floor. But if he finds a way to work around that, he has plenty to offer as an explosive athlete with loads of defensive versatility and the ability to create or finish plays in transition.
Brooklyn Nets: Cam Thomas
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Assuming the Nets don't make a major move for an established star, they could find themselves making near-nightly searches for scoring. After this past season's deadline overhaul, they dipped to 23rd in offensive efficiency, and that was with Mikal Bridges blazing his way through a ceiling-lifting stretch run (26.1 points on 47.5/37.6/89.4 shooting in 27 games).
Even if Bridges retains that production—he had previously handled a support role before the trade—the Nets don't have a clear-cut choice to serve as their second option. Unless, of course, they unleash Thomas, who popped for 40-plus points four different times last season and exited the campaign averaging 22.9 points per 36 minutes on 44.1/38.3/86.8 shooting.
His shot profile is outdated—he lives in the mid-range—and his game lacks layers beyond see-ball, score-ball, so he needs one of two things to happen to dramatically increase his role. He either needs to perk up the non-scoring parts of his skill set, or he needs Brooklyn to be so hurting for offense that the team feels it can't get by without his buckets.
Charlotte Hornets: Nick Smith Jr.
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Smith isn't the most celebrated rookie in Buzz City—an honor instead belonging to No. 2 pick Brandon Miller—but if he'd lived up to expectations at Arkansas, he would've been. Smith was 247Sports' highest-ranked hoops recruit last summer (13 spots above Miller if you were curious), and one iffy, injury-impacted season of college ball hasn't torpedoed his upside.
He still looks the part of a slippery, athletic combo guard with the handles and quick changes of direction and speed to get anywhere he wants. He can get a little too focused on his own offense to consistently create for others, but playing alongside a table-setter like LaMelo Ball should allow Smith to focus on keeping his own point total moving.
If Charlotte treats this campaign as the developmental season that it should be, then Smith has a non-zero chance of bumping Terry Rozier out of the lineup and auditioning as the long-term backcourt partner for Ball. Scoring might be Smith's greatest strength, but he also keeps the pedal floored on defense.
Chicago Bulls: Ayo Dosunmu
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Dosunmu followed an impressive rookie season with a so-so sophomore run, and Chicago has since crowded the backcourt in a way that could have him primed for another disappointment. He might wind up fifth in the guard rotation—behind Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, Jevon Carter and Coby White—or even sixth if Dalen Terry suddenly shows signs of life.
However, Dosunmu has defied odds before—he was one of only two second-rounders to make an All-Rookie team in 2021-22—and he isn't one to back down from a challenge. The same relentless play that powered him into a larger-than-expected role as a rookie could have him quieting his naysayers once again.
He is a blur in transition and a fearless fighter on defense. He just needs to clean up his half-court execution on offense to force his way onto the floor. Hitting more threes would help (37.6 percent as a rookie, 31.2 last season), but so would expanding his off-the-dribble menu. He has legitimate two-way player potential, and if he hits the ground sprinting in training camp, he could even challenge for the starting point guard spot.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Ty Jerome
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If things go according to plan in Cleveland, there won't be many surprises. Get continued growth from this core, a repeat of last season's defensive dominance and the expected shooting lift from newcomers Max Strus and Georges Niang, and that might be enough to get the Cavaliers on the contending track.
That's the macro view at least. On a micro level, though, Cleveland could need someone to step in for Ricky Rubio, whose status is uncertain after pausing his basketball activities to focus on his mental health. That could be the opening Jerome needs to exceed expectations.
He certainly did that for the Golden State Warriors last season, parlaying his two-way pact into 45 regular-season appearances that spanned more than 800 minutes. He has had an up-and-down career so far, but in his good moments, he's a steady source of spacing (38-plus percent from three in two of the past three seasons) and decision-making (career 2.6 assists against 0.8 turnovers).
Dallas Mavericks: Dereck Lively II
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More than a decade has passed since Dallas allowed Tyson Chandler to walk away from its championship roster, and it has basically had a Chandler-sized hole at the rim-running center spot ever since. Lively, this year's No. 12 pick, could be the player who finally fills it.
"He reminds me of myself a lot," Chandler, now a player development coach for the Mavericks, said on the All The Smoke podcast (via Dallas Basketball). "... They definitely, definitely needed [him]. That's always been the missing key for the Mavs, [a defensive-anchor center]."
Lively will start this season as a teenager (he'll turn 20 in February) and wasn't super productive at Duke (5.4 rebounds and 5.2 points in 20.6 minutes), so it might make sense to temper expectations. Then again, the Mavs really only need rim protection and spoon-fed finishing out of him, so even in his raw state, he might already be able to step into this niche (but critically important) role.
Denver Nuggets: Peyton Watson
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Watson hasn't played a ton of basketball the past two seasons. In fact, he totaled fewer than 600 minutes combined between his lone year at UCLA and first go-round in Denver, so he's about as unproven as a second-year pro can get.
And yet, the Nuggets could still crank up his floor time this season, due both to desperation (they have a lot of minutes to fill without Bruce Brown and Jeff Green) but also belief in his potential. They took a first-round flier on him back in 2022 despite such a small workload with the Bruins, so clearly they envision his game growing by leaps and bounds.
And it absolutely could. He has the necessary size and length to be an all-purpose disruptive presence on defense and a ferocious finisher around the basket. He quietly has the ability to make plays (for himself and his teammates) off the dribble, and things could really open up for him if he finds consistency with his long-range shot.
Detroit Pistons: James Wiseman
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Remember him? It's hard to think of Wiseman becoming a forgotten man when not too long ago he was the 2020 draft's No. 2 pick and the leading member of the Golden State Warriors' two-timeline plan, yet if you asked anyone to list the Pistons' top prospects, it could be a while before his name gets mentioned.
That's not entirely his fault, by the way. He just lacked the polish and health to provide the consistency Golden State needed. Without those same win-right-now demands in Detroit, though, this could be the campaign in which he finally flourishes.
He needs to separate himself in a crowded frontcourt rotation first, but with his size-skill combo, that hardly feels impossible. He is a fluid, athletic 7-footer who's shown comfort as a jump-shooter. That's an intriguing mix, even if defense remains a massive question mark.
Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga
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This might be the easiest choice of this exercise. That's due both to how few surprises are likely to stem from Golden State's core and all of the flashes suggesting there is so much more to Kuminga's game than he's been able to show through his first two seasons.
Now, it's worth noting he faces some of the same developmental constraints that Wiseman did with the Warriors, since they can only withstand so many growing pains while attempting to maximize the remainder of Stephen Curry's prime. Still, the Warriors could use an athletic jolt after appearing old and slow at times during their last playoff run, and Kuminga has explosiveness for days.
It doesn't do Golden State or Kuminga any good to keep him tethered to the bench. That can stunt his growth and cause irreparable damage to his trade value. The Dubs should know his sink-or-swim chance needs to happen this season. They should also welcome his defensive versatility and finishing into the rotation while finding chances for him to tap into his shot-creation.
Houston Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr.
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On the surface, Smith had a colossally disappointing rookie season. Last summer's No. 3 pick averaged just 12.8 points in his 31 minutes while shooting just 40.8 percent from the field and 30.7 percent from range. That first connection rate feels impossibly low for a 6'10" power forward, while the second is troubling for someone who seemingly counts long-distance marksmanship as a top selling point.
Dig a little deeper, though, and some of these concerns can be alleviated. Smith, much more of a finisher than a creator, was as impacted as anyone by Houston's atrocious playmaking (29th in assist percentage). And even still, he started to find his way late in the season, averaging 15.8 points on 47.2/36.5/78.3 shooting over his final 20 outings.
Tack on a dominant (albeit brief) showing at summer league and the massive playmaking lift this offense will get from newcomer Fred VanVleet, and the stage could be set for Smith's redemption tour. It's entirely possible he exits his second season with some support from Most Improved Player award voters.
Indiana Pacers: Isaiah Jackson
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Indiana has amassed so much young talent that the Pacers can reasonably expect a plethora of pleasant surprises from this core. What makes Jackson stand out in this exercise, though, is that he so seldom does otherwise. He was getting lost in this frontcourt shuffle even before Jarace Walker and Obi Toppin were added to the mix.
Maybe that's a mistake. While Jackson won't carve out a massive role as long as Myles Turner resides in the Circle City, he could certainly push Jalen Smith for the backup center spot. Jackson has already made an impact as a shot-blocker (career 3.3 per 36 minutes), and he could lean on that same bounce to thrive as an above-the-rim finisher.
He doesn't have much offensive game away from the basket, but he may not need one operating alongside maybe the Association's best passer in Tyrese Haliburton (or a similarly sound decision-maker in Andrew Nembhard).
Los Angeles Clippers: Bones Hyland
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With one of the league's more vet-heavy rosters, the Clippers don't have many surprise candidates. You could drop in some corny joke about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George finally staying healthy, but the aim is more than eliciting a few polite chuckles.
So, Hyland becomes the candidate instead, as he might only be an A-ha! moment away from a breakout. He struggled to gain traction during a sophomore season that saw him traded from Denver to L.A., but his per-minute numbers held steady.
For his career, he's been a per-36-minute supplier of 20.4 points and 5.5 assists—not to mention a 36.8 percent shooter from range—so you don't have to squint too hard to see him growing into a spark-plug role. The Clippers weren't great on offense last season (17th in efficiency), so they could wind up needing Hyland's scoring punch more than you think.
Los Angeles Lakers: Jaxson Hayes
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When Hayes first signed with L.A., it seemed as if he might have a chance to start alongside Anthony Davis in a jumbo-sized frontcourt. But after the Lakers added Christian Wood to the mix, suddenly Hayes' playing time feels very much in jeopardy.
"Aside from when Davis is out, where exactly are the minutes?" The Athletic's Jovan Buha wrote. "... Finding minutes for Hayes would come at the expense of [Rui] Hachimura, [Taurean] Prince and/or [Jarred] Vanderbilt—a cost that, when factoring in the team's basic needs of shooting and perimeter defense around [LeBron] James and Davis, doesn't make sense."
It's possible Hayes gets left behind, but it's too early to assume that will definitely be the case. The Lakers don't have anyone—other than maybe a healthy Davis—who can match Hayes' combination of size, length and hops. If L.A. wants to minimize Davis' time at center or simply desires a bouncy big who can block shots and crush lobs, Hayes could be the answer.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ziaire Williams
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Statistically speaking, there aren't many good reasons to keep hope alive for Williams. He was moderately effective as a rookie and effectively nonexistent as a sophomore (due in part to injuries but also a G League demotion), a dismal combination that has him toting around an unsightly, single-digit career player efficiency rating (9.0).
So, why does he still show up here? Because it's frankly hard to quit on a toolsy 22-year-old who is barely two calendar years removed from being the 10th overall pick. He still has great size for a wing (6'8", 215 lbs), plus the ball skills and shooting stroke that make you want to believe in his offensive potential.
He is physically equipped to be a versatile defensive stopper, too, and Memphis could use one of those on the wings with Dillon Brooks now in Houston.
Miami Heat: Nikola Jović
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While Jović might be most valuable to Miami as a potential trade chip in a Damian Lillard deal, it's possible that trade never comes together. If nothing else, it's premature to write Jović out of the franchise's long-term plans until his name actually appears on the NBA's transaction log.
And who knows, maybe he'll wind up playing a prominent role in that future. He certainly appeared as a rising star at the FIBA World Cup, when he helped a Serbian team playing without two-time MVP Nikola Jokić reach the championship game.
Jović, a 6'10" face-up forward, had an eye-opening run in the event, tallying 10.1 points per game on 56.6/42.3/76.9 shooting while nearly tripling his 1.0 turnovers with 2.6 assists. He (probably) won't repeat those numbers in the NBA, but his size, shooting touch and playmaking could help this offense get things going in the half-court.
Milwaukee Bucks: AJ Green
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The Bucks never found many minutes for Green last season, but they still saw enough to graduate him from a two-way deal to a standard contract that features two (non-guaranteed) seasons after this one. That indicates Milwaukee will give him a shot to crack the regular rotation, and that it thinks he could have some staying power in it.
He is probably no more than a shooting specialist at this level, but he has a pure enough stroke to succeed in this role. He splashed an impressive 41.9 percent of his threes overall and converted 44.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples. In seven G League outings, he shot 40.5 percent from range on a ridiculous 10.6 attempts.
He is limited defensively and struggles to separate off the dribble, but his shot alone could net him a nightly role given Milwaukee's need to create optimal spacing around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
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The Timberwolves got a glimpse of Alexander-Walker late last season and clearly liked what they saw. When they needed to replace an injured Jaden McDaniels in the playoffs, they promoted Alexander-Walker to the opening lineup, and he delivered with relentless defense and a three-ball that fell at a 40 percent clip.
Minnesota can now comfortably and confidently count on Alexander-Walker being a pesky presence on defense, but he has more to offer. He might spend a lot of nights in a three-and-D role, but he has enough handles and vision to operate as a secondary (or, at times, primary) playmaker.
Buoyed by stability he's never had before—this will be the first time he starts a season with the same coach he had in the last one—this could be when his light bulb fully illuminates.
New Orleans Pelicans: Dyson Daniels
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If Daniels logs enough floor time, he could finish his second season with voting support for an All-Defensive spot. And if he makes it onto one of those rosters, he just might stay there for the foreseeable future.
Long, strong and instinctive, he already looks like an elite stopper. This past season—which he mostly played as a teenager—he landed in the 94th percentile for defensive estimated plus/minus, per Dunks & Threes. Also in that percentile: Jimmy Butler and Jrue Holiday, who have a combined 10 All-Defensive selections between them.
The only question for Daniels is shooting, as he basically struggled with it from every level as a rookie (41.8/31.4/65.0 slash line). But even if he just finds a few sweet spots, that could be enough to propel him into a much more substantial role given the impact he can make as a versatile defender and 6'8" playmaker.
New York Knicks: Miles McBride
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McBride is a menace on defense, and Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau has still only found him 1,132 minutes of floor time over the past two seasons combined. That speaks directly to the many challenges McBride has faced on the offensive end.
Yet the Knicks remain committed to him—they picked up his team option for this season—because he's such a positive presence on the game's less glamorous end. He is a true defensive playmaker, posting a top-10 steal percentage (2.4, would have tied for eighth if he played enough to qualify) and averaging a team-best 2.7 deflections per 36 minutes.
He also isn't necessarily a lost cause on offense. Yes, he has struggled with his shot (career 33.7/28.2/66.7 slash), but he has seemed more tentative than anything. He has shredded G League defenses when he's faced them, showing an assertiveness that could serve him well if used in small doses at the NBA level. And while he isn't a primary passer, he generally makes good decisions, as the huge gap between his career assists (113) and turnovers (30) can attest.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jaylin Williams
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When folks discuss OKC's mountain of prospects, they take a while to get to Williams. That probably shouldn't happen, but when you're surrounded by so many good-to-great young players—one of whom shares your name (though spelled differently)—it can be tricky to stand out.
Williams' numbers were muted enough that he didn't. He also doesn't play a particularly loud style. Drawing a charge, which he did a team-high 43 times, won't exactly fill the highlight reel like an emphatic rejection can. His crafty playmaking also doesn't jump off the stat sheet the way gaudy scoring numbers would.
Yet it's his ability to succeed in the sport's subtleties that could make him a vital piece of this Thunder team and maybe a bunch more of them in the future. His willingness to play a role and ability to execute it could have his playing time trending way up.
Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs
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In some ways, Suggs spent his first two seasons attempting to find an offensive niche that he still hasn't harnessed. But peep his situation through a half-full glass, and you might change the narrative to say he's spent these campaigns cementing himself as an impact defender, which would grant him a towering ceiling if his offense ever comes around.
Maybe he has just failed to find a rhythm due to the start-and-stop nature of his injury-impacted career. He's had moments where it seems he's figuring things out—he had four 20-point outbursts over his first 11 games this past season—but his repeat trips to the injury report have made it hard to string them together.
If he finds consistency with his availability, then consistency could spawn in other areas, too. He could be extra motivated in trying to make that happen since his future in a crowded Orlando backcourt isn't exactly certain.
Philadelphia 76ers: Paul Reed
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Long a favorite of the analytics crowd, Reed finally had his first real chance to show what he could do this past season. He promptly spent the year making those number-crunchers look smart with his far-reaching impact and across-the-board productivity.
He can still try doing too much at times, though that's partly due to just how many tricks are up his sleeve. He was last season's lone player to post per-36-minute averages of 13 points, 12 rebounds, two steals and two blocks. In fact, he's one of only three players to ever hit those marks.
He has a lot of hustle and doing-the-dirty-work in his game, but he'll flash real ball skills, too. This past season, he cemented himself in this team's rotation. In the next, he could entrench himself in the club's long-term nucleus.
Phoenix Suns: Yuta Watanabe
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Watanabe has orchestrated some fun, high-energy moments in the past, but this season could be different. He just might surface as the fifth-best player on a title-chasing team.
Now, being the fifth-best player may not sound like much, but remember to consider the caliber of the quartet in front of him. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are full-fledged superstars. Bradley Beal is a three-time All-Star with two 30-point-per-night seasons under his belt. Deandre Ayton is a former No. 1 pick who has basically averaged a 17-point double-double in his career. There is zero shame in trailing that foursome.
Watanabe may not project to be Phoenix's fifth-best player right now, but he could play his way into that status while simultaneously locking up starting and closing roles. He is a fearless, frenetic and versatile defender who may have mastered the art of corner-three shooting (a blistering 51.4 percent last season). Those are two of the most important traits a modern role-playing wing can have.
Portland Trail Blazers: Matisse Thybulle
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This selection might be met with some skepticism, as most might feel the book on Thybulle has been written, edited and published already. He's a tenacious defender with no offense; what's new?
Well, maybe it was a statistical anomaly, but this defensive specialist quietly showed a lot of offensive ability late last season. In 22 games after his trade to Portland, he showed more promise with his perimeter shot than ever, splashing 1.5 triples per night at a 38.8 percent clip.
If he suddenly has a viable three-ball in his bag, that could be a game-changer for his career. He had filled a pretty substantial role in Philadelphia prior to this past season, as he was such a disruptive defender that the Sixers tried to live with his offensive limitations as long as they could. If those limitations aren't as glaring as they've been in the past, he could wind up commanding something in the ballpark of 30 minutes per night.
Sacramento Kings: Sasha Vezenkov
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A lot of players on this list have a chance to surprise fans by performing in ways they haven't seen from them before. With Vezenkov, it's a lot simpler: A lot of NBA fans simply haven't seen the EuroLeague import before.
"A lot of people hear 'international' and they don't know them, and then they come over and all of a sudden it's [Nikola] Mirotić or it's the Bogdanovićs [Bogdan and Bojan] or (Nemanja) Bjelica," Kings general manager Monte McNair told The Athletic's Sam Amick and Anthony Slater. "... And once they're over here, then people get excited about them. But I think people will be surprised, just because they don't know him very well and what he can do."
Vezenkov, the 2023 EuroLeague MVP, can do a lot, especially on the offensive end. The 6'9" swingman will bring movement shooting, off-the-dribble scoring, post-up play and advanced feel for the game to an offense that was already the NBA's most efficient.
San Antonio Spurs: Malaki Branham
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Since the Spurs (smartly) spent last season tanking for Victor Wembanyama, many may have diverted their attention away from the Alamo City. It's tough to blame anyone that did, but you may have missed out on some of Branham's offensive magic.
He has that smoothness in his game where everything feels effortless. He can snake around defenders or overpower them, and he doesn't need a lot of space to get into his shot. He is more of a scorer than table-setter, but he can impact the game in both ways.
San Antonio didn't find him a ton of 30-plus-minute opportunities last season, but when it did, he always capitalized on the opportunity. During the nine games in which he logged 30-plus minutes, he averaged 20.2 points on 51.8/41.1/78.9 shooting with 3.3 assists.
Toronto Raptors: Christian Koloko
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At some point sooner than later, the Raptors could clear out their remaining veterans and put all their focus on the future. As soon as that switch flips, they should give Koloko a big chance to see what kind of role he can handle for them going forward.
He looks like he could blossom into a rim-running role, especially as he bulks up his 7'1", 230-pound frame. He can do more than anchor the interior, too, as he is nimble enough to switch onto perimeter players.
Toronto shouldn't count on any offense from him outside of the restricted area any time soon, but he has hinted at having mid-range shooting touch and some smart, simple-read passing ability. If he's a quick learner, he could squeeze out more than 20 minutes a night.
Utah Jazz: Keyonte George
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George's scoring punch earned him his NBA ticket. His flashes of high-end playmaking are the basis of this selection, though.
He has suffered from tunnel vision at times in the past, but in summer-league play, he showed a consistent effort to involve his teammates. That effort instantly showed up on the stat sheet, as he averaged 6.3 assists in three games, the last of which he didn't even finish due to an ankle injury that cut his summer session short.
If Utah thinks he can continue progressing as a passer, he could have a shot at locking up the team's starting point guard gig. And if he gets that, all bets are off in terms of the kind of year he could have, potentially pushing for the rookie scoring title and an All-Rookie first-team honor.
Washingon Wizards: Patrick Baldwin Jr.
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The fact Baldwin is only slightly more seasoned than frozen vegetables shouldn't bother the Wizards the way it did the win-now Warriors. While he averaged just 7.3 minutes as a rookie in Golden State, he could triple that number during his first season in the District.
He has legitimate skills as a 6'9" shot-maker; they just need several coats of polish. If Capital One Arena becomes his player-development playground, Washington's long-term outlook would brighten a bunch.
He doesn't have much in the arsenal beyond shooting, but combine that with his size, and the Wizards have a 20-year-old worth developing. If he can expand his skill set—passing and team defense seem like his best bets—they might really be in business.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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