MLB Predictions for Stretch Run of 2023 Regular Season
Welcome to the final weeks of Major League Baseball's 2023 season, where anything could happen. To try to predict what will happen is a fool's errand.
Let's give it a shot anyway.
Ahead are eight predictions for the last three weeks of the season. Three are player-specific, covering two major awards races and the chase for the home run crown. The others concern the fates of five teams, one of which is merely trying to salvage some dignity and four of which are eyeing October.
Which is to say that not every playoff race got a prediction. There are too many lay-ups there. For example, nobody should need to be told that the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the National League West or that the Minnesota Twins will win the American League Central.
In case anyone does need a refresher, let's look at the standings before getting on with the predictions.
The Standings as of Now
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American League East
- Baltimore Orioles: 90-52*
- Tampa Bay Rays: 88-56 (-3.0, +8.5 WC)*
- Toronto Blue Jays: 80-63 (-10.5, +1.0 WC)*
- Boston Red Sox: 73-70 (-17.5, -6.0 WC)
- New York Yankees: 71-72 (-19.5, -8.0 WC)
American League Central
- Minnesota Twins: 75-68*
- Cleveland Guardians: 68-77 (-7.5, -11.5 WC)
- Detroit Tigers: 66-77 (-9.0, -13.0 WC)
- Chicago White Sox: 55-88 (-20.0, -24.0 WC)
- Kansas City Royals: 44-100 (-31.5, -35.5 WC)
American League West
- Houston Astros: 82-62*
- Seattle Mariners: 79-64 (-2.5, -- WC)*
- Texas Rangers: 78-64 (-3.0, -0.5 WC)
- Los Angeles Angels: 67-77 (-15.0, -12.5 WC)
- Oakland Athletics: 44-99 (-37.5, -35.0 WC)
National League East
- Atlanta: 93-49#
- Philadelphia Phillies: 78-64 (-15.0, +4.0 WC)*
- Miami Marlins: 74-69 (-19.5, -0.5 WC)
- New York Mets: 65-77 (-28.0, -9.0 WC)
- Washington Nationals: 64-79 (-29.5, -10.5 WC)
National League Central
- Milwaukee Brewers: 79-63*
- Chicago Cubs: 77-67 (-3.0, +2.0 WC)*
- Cincinnati Reds: 74-71 (-6.5, -1.5 WC)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 66-77 (-13.5, -8.5 WC)
- St. Louis Cardinals: 63-80 (-16.5, -11.5 WC)
National League West
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 87-55*
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 75-69 (-13.0, -- WC)*
- San Francisco Giants: 73-70 (-14.5, -1.5 WC)
- San Diego Padres: 67-77 (-21.0, -8.0 WC)
- Colorado Rockies: 51-91 (-36.0, -23.0 WC)
*Projected to make playoffs.
#Clinched playoffs.
Blake Snell Will Regain Control of the NL Cy Young Award Race
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There's nothing dramatic about the AL Cy Young Award race right now. With league-leading figures for ERA and innings, the award is Gerrit Cole's to lose.
The NL Cy Young Award race, on the other hand, is where the drama is downright Shakespearian.
Though Spencer Strider has kneecapped his candidacy by coughing up 10 runs over 8.2 innings in his last two starts, Justin Steele's neck is suddenly right there next to Blake Snell's neck. Steele leads Snell in ERA, but just barely at 2.49 to 2.52. The two are also close to even in innings, with Steele at 159 and Snell at 161.
DraftKings' odds still slightly favor Snell, though. He generally looks like the better pitcher in a head-to-head statistical battle with Steele, including by way of a whopping 50-strikeout lead. He's also hotter, having gone 20 straight starts without allowing more than three runs.
Snell also has the more favorable road ahead. He and the Padres have 12 games remaining against losing teams, compared to nine for Steele and the Cubs.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Will Get to 40 Home Runs, Clinch NL MVP
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To those who had been keeping tabs on the race for the NL MVP, the news that came out on the morning of Monday, Aug. 28 was shocking indeed.
Whereas Ronald Acuña Jr. had long been the presumed favorite to win the award, suddenly he was looking up at Mookie Betts in the betting odds. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com broke down, this did seem to reflect the reality of the situation at the time.
Looking back now, though, all that flip in the odds may have accomplished was lighting a fire under Acuña.
Atlanta's superstar right fielder has played like a man possessed since Aug. 8, putting up a 1.243 OPS with seven home runs and five stolen bases. He now has 64 of the latter and 35 of the former, putting him easily within striking distance of only the fifth ever 40-40 season.
To be fair, Betts has 38 homers and leads Acuña in slugging and OPS. But he had cooled off in going 4-for-18 out of the gate in September before he had to take time for a foot injury. It may take something approximating a Hail Mary for him to reclaim the lead for the NL MVP.
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Shohei Ohtani Will Reclaim the Home Run Lead
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Wait, what?
Yeah, this is probably a long shot. Shohei Ohtani's 44 home runs put him four behind Matt Olson's league-leading 48. That's not a small gap with so little time remaining, which is to say nothing of how Ohtani has fallen off the pace.
He's hit zero home runs in 10 games since learning about the latest tear to his ulnar collateral ligament. And not one of those games has come after Sep. 3, as he's been sidelined since then with tightness in his right oblique.
Still, Ohtani's dinger deficit to Olson is not so great that he has no hope of erasing it. All it would take is a well-timed long ball binge.
The Angels have 18 games remaining and, just sayin', Ohtani has hit as many as 14 home runs in an 18-game span before. And nobody can say he doesn't have incentives to go on a similar rampage to round out the season. Though his UCL is a complicating factor, a home run title can only boost his value on the upcoming free-agent market.
The Yankees Won't Finish in Last Place
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At 71-72, the Yankees are in danger of doing something they haven't done since 1992: Finish a season with a losing record.
The chances of them avoiding this grim fate frankly aren't great. They have a fairly difficult road ahead, including six games against a Toronto Blue Jays club that's fighting for its playoff life. They also just lost rookie sensation Jasson Domínguez for the season with a torn UCL.
But even if they can't avoid a losing record, the Yankees can at least avoid finishing in last place in the AL East.
It's the Red Sox who seem ticketed for the AL East cellar right now. They only have a two-game edge on the Yankees, and they've lately been getting their butts handed to them by contending teams. They've lost nine out of 12 against such teams, and ahead are 12 more games against contenders.
The Yankees have 13 of those remaining in their own right, but at least they've been playing solid baseball of late. They've won nine out of 13 since Aug. 28, even snatching a victory from the jaws of what might have been a no-hit defeat against Milwaukee on Sunday.
The Diamondbacks Will Hold on to the NL's 3rd Wild Card
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No matter what happens the rest of the way, the Diamondbacks have already experienced the worst part of their 2023 season.
It was bad for them between July 2 and Aug. 11. Real bad. Their 7-25 record in that span was the worst of any team, and it just about killed their hopes of making the playoffs. FanGraphs, for example, had their chances of playing postseason ball at 13.4 percent.
But that was then. This is now, wherein the Diamondbacks are firmly back in the saddle.
They've won 18 of their last 28 games, mostly courtesy of a pitching staff that's stabilized with a 4.02 ERA after posting a 5.62 ERA during that awful 32-game stretch. For its part, the defense at least deserves an assist for that.
It's only a 0.5-game advantage the Snakes have for the NL's third and final wild-card spot, but their pursuers aren't exactly in good shape. The Giants have lost 29 out of their last 48 games and the Marlins had to put their best pitcher and slugger on the injured list last week.
The Rangers Will Rally for the AL's 3rd Wild Card
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The pain the Diamondbacks felt in July and August is precisely what the Rangers are feeling right now.
After holding at least a share of the AL West lead on a daily basis between April 9 and Aug. 26, the Rangers now find themselves three games off the pace and likewise out of the money in the AL wild-card race. That's what can happen when a team loses 16 out of 22.
But just as the Diamondbacks proved to be, the Rangers are too good to be this bad for long.
Even with Adolis García on the injured list with a patellar tendon strain, the Rangers still have a deep lineup that could soon have Josh Jung back at third base. And despite the 5.67 ERA it's put up in the club's last 22 games, their starting rotation is one of the league's best.
Though the Rangers aren't in for a soft landing, their remaining schedule is nonetheless easier than that of the Blue Jays. The Rangers even have a chance this week to chip away at Toronto directly in a four-game series at the Rogers Centre, and it can only help their cause that the home team is banged up at the moment.
The Astros Will Hold on in the AL West
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The Astros have spent just 12 days in first place in the AL West this season, or 139 fewer than the Rangers and as many as than the Mariners.
This perhaps should serve as a warning that Houston's grip on first place is less than vise-like. And indeed, a team can only be so confident while it has a mere 2.5-game lead on the team in second place and a three-game lead on the one in third place.
But come on, does anyone seriously want to bet against the Astros right now?
Even with that weird sweep at the hands of the Yankees to open September, they've won 23 of their last 38 games overall. That includes 10 out of their last 14, in which their offense has been completely overpowering in compiling a .991 OPS and scoring 8.5 runs per game.
To boot, Houston's remaining schedule leans easy. Three games each against the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Orioles will test them, but their other nine games are against Royals and A's clubs that bear the two worst records in the entire league.
The Orioles Will Finish with MLB's Best Record
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It's Atlanta who holds the best record in the majors at 93-49, and likewise Atlanta that certainly feels like the best team in the league this year.
But can the Orioles catch them? You better believe the Orioles can catch them.
They're 90-52 and doing a heck of a job of closing the gap as is. They've won 15 out of their last 20 compared to "just" 13 out of 20 for Atlanta. This has mostly been an offensive barrage, with Orioles hitters producing an .838 OPS and 6.8 runs per game.
The Orioles' remaining schedule is more difficult than Atlanta's on paper, but four of the former's supposedly difficult games are against the Red Sox. As in, the same Red Sox who just lost two of three to Baltimore to further add to their recent misery against contenders.
Otherwise, let's call this prediction the result of a sudden instinct to live dangerously. And there can be no doubt that the stakes are high, as the owner of MLB's best record stands to gain nothing less than home-field advantage in the World Series.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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