Ranking MLB's 20 Most Important Series Remaining Before 2023 Playoffs
With only four weeks left until the start of Major League Baseball's 2023 postseason, the Rays and Orioles continue their tug-o'-war for AL East supremacy, the AL West has turned into a captivating three-horse race and the quest for the NL wild card spots has devolved into a full-fledged battle royale.
And as we begin the journey down the home stretch of the regular season, we've ranked the 20 most important series still to come.
Even with that many series on the list, we had to draw some tough lines in the sand to trim it down. Two teams you won't find anywhere on this list are the Boston Red Sox (5.5 GB for AL No. 6 seed) and the Miami Marlins (one of four teams tied for NL No. 6 seed).
Boston is just a little too far back to make the "most important series" cut, and Miami simply has a schedule devoid of games against the other four teams along the NL cutline—and is about to embark upon 13 consecutive games against the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers and Braves that figures to knock them out of the running within the next two weeks. If the Marlins can tread water through that gauntlet, though, they have a three-game series against Milwaukee from Sept. 22-24 that would be huge.
To be clear, we're not throwing in the towel on either Boston or Miami, but there were plenty of other big-time series left to rank without including them.
Six other series just barely missing the cut: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (Sept. 11-13), Minnesota @ Cincinnati (Sept. 18-20), Philadelphia @ Atlanta (Sept. 18-20), Toronto @ Tampa Bay (Sept. 22-24), Chicago @ Atlanta (Sept. 26-28) and Tampa Bay @ Toronto (Sept. 29-Oct. 1). All of those series could be crucial for at least one, if not both teams. They just don't currently register as quite as big as our top 20.
Records and standings are current through the start of play Monday, Sept. 4.
20. Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
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When and Where: Sept. 4-6 in Cleveland (three games)
Season Series: Guardians lead 6-4
What's at Stake?
This series is more or less going to dictate whether we need to pay any mind to the AL Central over the final 25 days of the regular season.
Minnesota currently holds a five-game lead over Cleveland, and there's no realistic chance the runner-up ends up with a wild-card spot. It's also highly unlikely that the winner will finish ahead of the AL West champ, unless Minnesota goes on an absolute tear while Houston, Seattle and Texas beat each other up.
It's basically No. 3 seed or bust.
And if the Twins win this series, that's probably the final nail in the coffin for the Guardians.
Cleveland has more than held its own against Minnesota this season, though, winning each of the two previous three-game series and splitting the four-game set. But considering Minnesota has a significantly easier remaining schedule, the Guardians probably need to pull off the sweep here to maintain realistic hope.
Cleveland's big waiver wire acquisition, Lucas Giolito, will be on the bump for Game 1.
19. Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
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When and Where: Sept. 11-13 in Philadelphia (four games)
Season Series: Braves lead 4-2
What's at Stake?
The NL East race is effectively over. Atlanta might even be able to clinch the division during this series. Nothing is at stake on that front.
There could be some No. 1 seed implications here. This is by far the toughest series left on the docket for the Braves, so this is a spot where they could cede some ground to the Dodgers. Although, after Atlanta took care of business in Los Angeles this past weekend, that race feels almost over, too.
But the main storyline here will be Philadelphia trying to avoid blowing its lead in the wild card picture.
The Phillies have been in the driver's seat for the No. 4 seed for about a month now, but they aren't exactly running away with it, presently 5.5 games ahead of the cut line.
And these are just the first four of the seven games they have remaining against Atlanta. If they were to lose three or even all four of these games at home, they might need to win that series in Atlanta (Sept. 18-20) to avoid a total collapse.
Or maybe not, because after that series, the Phillies finish the season with three games against the Pirates sandwiched between seven games against the Mets. They should finish strong, but this series could at least set the stage for a dramatic finish.
18-16. Three-Part Interleague Intrigue
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18. Seattle Mariners @ Cincinnati Reds (Sept. 4-6, three games)
17. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Seattle Mariners (Sept. 15-17, three games)
16. Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Sept. 29-Oct. 1, three games)
Though the Texas Rangers have 10 games remaining against Seattle (seven) and Houston (three), it could be the National League that gives them a bit of a leg up on their AL West cohorts.
Seattle has two massive interleague series remaining, the first coming this week against the Reds, who are in a four-way tie for the final NL wild-card spot. They originally had Hunter Greene lined up to pitch this series opener, but he landed on the COVID-19 IL on Friday and will miss his start. The Reds are also going to miss Andrew Abbott's turn through the rotation, so they're going to need the offense to come through in a big way.
Seattle's other interleague series against the Dodgers may well be a World Series preview. They were MLB's two hottest teams in August, Seattle going 21-6 while Los Angeles racked up a 24-5 record. The Dodgers have all but locked up their spot as NL West champs, but they'll be looking to make the most of their first trip to Seattle since April 2021.
Of this trio of series, though, the one taking place over the final three days of the regular season is the biggest. Philadelphia punched its postseason ticket last season with a win over Houston in its final series. Could Arizona do the same? Will the Astros clinch the AL West while Texas and Seattle are busy battling each other over that final weekend? Or could the Diamondbacks even cause Houston to miss the postseason for the first time since 2016?
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15. San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs
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When and Where: Sept. 4-6 in Chicago (three games)
Season Series: Cubs lead 2-1
What's at Stake?
At the moment, there appears to be room for both of these teams in the postseason. Chicago is currently situated as the NL's No. 5 seed, while San Francisco is part of the quartet tied for the final spot in the field.
But that could change in a hurry, as both the Cubs and Giants have a ton of big games remaining, including this three-game series beginning Monday afternoon.
In particular, the opener will be massive. Fringe NL Cy Young hopefuls Justin Steele and Logan Webb square off for what should be quite the pitchers' duel. Neither one took the mound when these teams met in June, but they'll both be looking to set the table for a pivotal series win for their respective clubs.
The pitching matchup in the series finale could be even more intriguing, though, potentially pitting rookies Jordan Wicks and Tristan Beck against each other. Beck has been working as a reliever for much of the season with the Giants, but both guys would be making just the third starts of their respective MLB careers.
Of note: Cody Bellinger was on the IL for the previous series, but he had a lot of disappointing performances against the Giants over the previous three years. The runaway favorite for NL Comeback Player of the Year—an award that comes with a $1 million bonus in Bellinger's contract, by the way—could make or break this series for the Cubs.
14. Giants @ Dodgers; 13. Dodgers @ Giants
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When and Where: Sept. 21-24 in San Francisco (four games); Sept. 29-Oct. 1 in Los Angeles (three games)
Season Series: Giants lead 4-2
What's at Stake?
Two for the price of one between these loathed NL West rivals, with both series coming in the final 10 days of the regular season—which could make the games even bigger than they already seem.
This is a more pivotal version of the seven games still to come between Atlanta and Philadelphia, as there's no realistic hope of the division changing hands. The Dodgers will mostly just playing to determine whether they'll be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
But even if Los Angeles is already locked into its seed by the latter series, don't expect them to just take it easy here. Not only could Mookie Betts be looking to put the finishing touches on his NL MVP campaign, but let's call to mind the end of the 2011 regular season. Philadelphia had already clinched home-field advantage through the World Series, yet made the most of its opportunity to keep Atlanta from making the postseason, sweeping the Braves and sending their rivals to work on their golf game in October.
The Giants could be in a spot to where the Braves were 12 Septembers ago, currently tied for the No. 6 seed. In addition to these two series, they'll face Arizona and San Diego in what may well be the most difficult closing two-week stretch for any team. If they don't win at least three of these seven games against the Dodgers, they could be in big trouble.
San Francisco did sweep when these teams met in June, though, even winning the game in which Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan tossed six no-hit innings.
12. San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
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When and Where: Sept. 19-20 in Arizona (two games)
Season Series: Giants lead 6-5
What's at Stake?
Because it's only a two-game series, it doesn't quite make the cut for the top 10.
If it were a four-game set, though, you could easily make the case that it belongs in the top three, as we're talking about two of the four teams currently tied for the National League's No. 6 seed. (Cincinnati and Miami are the others.)
One big thing to note with this series is that there is a playoff tiebreaker on the line. With a 6-5 lead in the season series, San Francisco currently holds that tiebreaker. But if the Diamondbacks can win both of these games, it would effectively be like gaining 2.5 games on the Giants, as they would then have the advantage if they were to finish the season with identical records.
Another big thing to note is that if the rotations hold serve for another two weeks, it would be rookie Kyle Harrison vs. Cy Young hopeful Zac Gallen in Game 1 and Alex Cobb vs. Merrill Kelly in Game 2. Harrison was awesome last Monday against Cincinnati, but, hoo boy, that's a huge spot for what would be the sixth start of his MLB career.
11. Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
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When and Where: Sept. 29-Oct. 1 in Milwaukee (three games)
Season Series: Series tied 5-5
What's at Stake?
Chicago is currently 3.5 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central. And of the two, the Cubs have the much more difficult schedule, as this is the Brewers' only remaining series against a team with at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
As such, it's possible—and perhaps even likely—that this season-ending series won't make any difference in determining who wins the division.
But there's a chance it could be the most important series of the entire season, as it could become a case of the winner securing the NL's No. 3 seed and the loser missing the playoffs.
With six teams jostling for the three wild card spots—or seven teams battling for four spots if you include Milwaukee and the NL Central title—we could enter the final weekend of the regular season with something like the Brewers at 86-73 and the Cubs at 85-74 while three of the wild card teams have already won 87 games.
If that happens, it's do or die for both the Brewers and the Cubs.
And with the season series all tied up, this three game set would also decide the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means if the Brewers and Cubs are either tied or separated by one game in either direction when the series begins, the first team to win two games wins the division. (Unless Cincinnati storms back from its current 6.5-game deficit to rejoin that conversation and add even more drama here.)
Even if Milwaukee has locked up the division by this point, though, there's a good chance Chicago will still be playing for its postseason life, or at least playing to determine its seed in the postseason.
10. Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
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When and Where: Sept. 18-20 in Houston (three games)
Season Series: Astros lead 2-1
What's at Stake?
For this series to just barely crack the top 10, you know we are headed for some serious September showdowns.
Because, realistically, this might be your ALCS preview.
The Orioles have been tentatively holding down the fort as the AL's No. 1 seed since mid-July, and though presently one game behind Seattle, the Astros are still marginally favored to win the three-team race for the AL West crown, which should come with the No. 2 seed attached to it.
However, this series could have a massive negative impact on one of those projections.
If Baltimore can go on the road and sweep Houston, that's a sizable blow to the Astros' quest to win the division—though they do have the most favorable schedule of those three AL West teams, still in possession of six games against Kansas City.
The more intriguing sweep would be Houston toppling Baltimore, which would both help Tampa Bay in the AL East race and put Houston squarely in the mix for the No. 1 seed. The Astros are currently eight games behind the Orioles, but the O's have a gigantic four-game series against the Rays right before this one to maybe tighten up that race.
More on that Rays-O's series a bit later, but basically this is the week where we'll finally reach a verdict on whether Baltimore can win the World Series.
9. Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
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When and Where: Sept. 7-10 in Tampa Bay (four games)
Season Series: Mariners lead 2-1
What's at Stake?
This one is just about identical to the aforementioned Baltimore-Houston series, with an AL East contender putting both its divisional and No. 1 seed hopes on the line against one of the three AL West teams trying to A) make the playoffs and B) win its division.
One substantial difference, though, is that this one is a four-game series, making it 33.3 percent more important than Baltimore-Houston.
Could this be where the depleted starting rotation finally starts to take a toll on the Rays?
Throughout August, Tampa Bay had a favorable schedule from a "level of competition" standpoint, but more importantly from a "days off in between series" standpoint. Tampa Bay was idle on August 3, 7, 17, 20, 21, 28 and 31, and that was nothing short of massive for their rotation. At least partially because of that, the Rays were able to end the month right where they started it, 1.5 games behind the Orioles.
But this series falls smack dab in the middle of a 17-game stretch with no days off.
Worse yet, the ace of what's left of Tampa's rotation, Tyler Glasnow, is probably going to miss this series, scheduled to face Boston on Sept. 6.
The Rays are going to be at a severe pitching disadvantage in the first two games, pitting Zack Littell and an opener against Luis Castillo and George Kirby. But maybe they can steal one of those games, or salvage the series by winning the games started by Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin.
8. Cubs @ Diamondbacks; 7. Diamondbacks @ Cubs
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When and Where: Sept. 7-10 in Chicago (four games); Sept. 15-17 in Arizona (three games)
Season Series: No games yet
What's at Stake?
No one could have guessed before the season that these two Arizona-Chicago series would carry so much importance in September.
Heck, I had the Cubs as my NL Central pick and the Diamondbacks as my NL West pick in our preseason article of one team from each division that would exceed expectations, and even I'm a bit blown away by the magnitude of these games.
Right now, the Cubs are the NL's No. 5 seed, two games ahead of the Diamondbacks, who are in that gaggle of teams tied for the No. 6 seed.
Both teams have virtually no room for error.
Even if they basically split the seven games with one side winning four, it realistically could end up being the difference between the four-win team getting in and the three-win team being left out.
But what if Chicago wins five of these seven games?
If Arizona goes 6-1?
Or how drastically would it shake up the wild card picture if one side goes a perfect seven-for-seven?
Pretty much lock that team into the postseason and eliminate the other from the conversation, right?
The bigger the divide, the more consequential these games become.
And to that end, if the final margin of this season series boils down to starting pitching matchups, that could be a huge advantage for Chicago. The Cubs are on track to have both Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks take the mound in each series, while the Diamondbacks' double dippers are lining up to be rookies Brandon Pfaadt and Slade Cecconi.
6. Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
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When and Where: Sept. 11-14 in Toronto (four games)
Season Series: Rangers lead 2-1
What's at Stake?
Joining the aforementioned Baltimore-Houston and Seattle-Tampa Bay matchups, here we have yet another major AL East vs. AL West showdown.
This one almost certainly won't have any impact on the race for the AL East crown, as the Blue Jays are 10.5 games behind the Orioles.
But as far as determining who actually makes the playoffs is concerned—which is more important than simply figuring out the seeding among the playoff-bound teams—this four-game set between the Rangers and Blue Jays is ginormous.
With four weeks remaining in the regular season, Texas and Houston are tied for the AL's No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, one game behind the Mariners for first place in the AL West. Meanwhile, Toronto is 1.5 games behind them, and is the lone AL team not currently in the playoff picture, but with a better than six percent chance of making the postseason.
Barring some major turn of events, it's going to be Toronto and the AL West's third-place finisher battling for the No. 6 seed, and these are the Blue Jays' only remaining games against those three teams.
So, yeah, pretty big series.
Worth noting: Texas has not had much success in its trips to Toronto over the years. Dating back to 2009, the Blue Jays have gone 30-14 at home against the Rangers, losing just one of those 14 series. And if Toronto takes three of four, say goodbye to the gap in the standings.
5-2. The AL West Carousel Ride
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5. Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers (Sept. 4-6, three games)
4. Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Sept. 22-24, three games)
3. Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (Sept. 25-27, three games)
2. Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (Sept. 28-Oct. 1, four games)
Season Series: Mariners lead Astros 8-2; Astros lead Rangers 6-4; Rangers lead Mariners 5-1
Save for the season-ending, four-game set between Texas and Seattle clearly being the biggest of the bunch, there's no particularly compelling reason to rank any of these AL West matchups ahead of the others. As such, Nos. 5-3 simply come in chronological order, as it will at least feel like the late-September games are more crucial than the ones taking place this week.
They're all huge, though, with next to nothing separating Houston from Seattle from Texas atop the division.
What's perhaps most noteworthy is that Houston only has six games left against the other two squads, while Seattle and Texas have 10 such games apiece. If you needed a reason beyond "has made it at least to the ALCS in six consecutive seasons" as a justification for picking the Astros to finish in first place, there you go.
They still need to actually win a decent chunk of those six games for it to work in their favor, though, and being the road team for all six games could make that a real challenge. (Although, Houston has actually been better on the road than it has been at home this season—especially its offense.)
But, man, that Texas @ Seattle series to end the season could be all sorts of awesome. We'll see how everything shakes out over the next 24 days, but if the AL West standings are the same then as they are now, that four-game set probably determines who wins the division and potentially determines who misses the postseason.
1. Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
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When and Where: Sept. 14-17 in Baltimore (four games)
Season Series: Orioles lead 6-3
What's at Stake?
Though it's not quite as consequential as the Braves-Mets series from the final week of the 2022 regular season—since there would still be two weeks left for the loser (if there is one) of this series to potentially rally and still win the division—this four-game Rays-Orioles showdown is certainly bigger than the four-game Braves-Dodgers series that enthralled baseball fans this past weekend.
That NL clash of the titans was really just for home-field advantage in the NLCS, with inevitable NL West champion Los Angeles trying (but failing) to gain some ground on inevitable NL East champion Atlanta in the race for the No. 1 seed.
This AL tilt, on the other hand, should go a long way in deciding who gets the No. 1 seed and who has to deal with a wild-card series against the first runner-up in the AL West.
Baltimore currently has a tenuous grasp on that No. 1 seed, as has been the case on a daily basis for the past six weeks. The O's have been perpetually at least one game but never more than three games ahead of the Rays every day dating back to July 22. (The margin is currently 2.5 games.)
But Baltimore could turn that stalemate into a virtual checkmate by winning or even sweeping the most important series played at Camden Yards in at least seven years.
Conversely, Tampa Bay could erase the deficit in a heartbeat to re-stake its claim to the No. 1 seed that felt like a foregone conclusion through the first three months of the season.
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