Big 12 Football: Preview and Predictions for 2023 Season
Are you ready for the greatest outlier year in Big 12 history?
The undeniable truth—no matter how much anyone might be "over it" at this point—is losing Oklahoma and Texas stings the league. The SEC-bound programs are the largest revenue-drivers in the conference.
On the other hand, the Big 12 has many, many reasons to celebrate in 2023. Not only are four new programs joining the league this year, but four others are on the way. The conference has a stable outlook thanks to an innovate commissioner and an improved television deal.
Besides, the power of the league shifted last season anyway.
Kansas State hoisted the Big 12 championship trophy and then TCU advanced to the national title game. Sure, that didn't go well, but no previous Big 12 school had made it that far in the College Football Playoff era.
Before the new-look conference has a newer look in 2024, though, those big-name departures are hoping for one final Big 12 crown.
Best Players
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What the Big 12 lacks in true superstars, the conference atones for with a deep group of high-end players.
At quarterback, the list includes Jalon Daniels (Kansas), Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) and Quinn Ewers (Texas). Kansas State's Will Howard deserves a mention with Texas Tech's Tyler Shough on the radar.
Xavier Worthy is an explosive wide receiver for Texas, which also has rising stars in tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders and left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. Kansas State left guard Cooper Beebe and West Virginia center Zach Frazier are two of the nation's best offensive linemen.
On defense, the Big 12 features Oklahoma State edge-rusher Collin Oliver, Oklahoma linebacker Danny Stutsman and TCU linebacker Johnny Hodges and cornerback Josh Newton.
Among the league's newcomers, top players are BYU left tackle Kingsley Suamataia, Cincinnati defensive tackle Dontay Corleone, Houston edge-rusher Nelson Ceaser and UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.
Top Storylines
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Out with the Old
Thanks to a $100 million exit fee, Oklahoma and Texas are exiting the conference one year early. Both programs undoubtedly would love a dramatic departure as the Big 12 champion in their farewell year. But that would require Texas to actually meet its preseason billing for once and Oklahoma to put a vastly improved defense on the field.
In with the New
Along with former independent BYU, the Big 12 is welcoming Cincinnati, Houston and UCF from the AAC. None of them are expected to compete for a conference crown this year, but Cincinnati's defense—more on that later—and UCF's offense are both potentially excellent.
TCU, Kansas State Aiming to Stay on Top
Oh, by the way, TCU reached the national championship last season while Kansas State won the Big 12. Clearly, it's easy to talk about realignment before even mentioning them. Kansas State must replace a couple of All-Americans, and TCU's offense is largely rebuilt. Still, last season's top teams in the conference should be contenders again.
Top Challengers
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Tier 1: Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas State
As usual, the on-paper perception of Texas is quite strong. More on the offense later, but the Longhorns made substantial gains with coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski last year. While OU is hoping for a similar defensive rise in the second season of Brent Venables' tenure, the Dillon Gabriel-led offense should be superb. Kansas State returns Will Howard, a veteran offensive line and an encouraging defense.
Tier 2: TCU and Texas Tech
TCU used the transfer portal to restock its offense, so the Horned Frogs can't be ruled out as a Big 12 title hopeful. Texas Tech might be a bit overvalued, but the Red Raiders have intriguing upside with Tyler Shough and an offense that returns its five top receivers.
Tier 3: The Magical Rise?
Last season, TCU ascended out of nowhere. Following a mediocre end to Gary Patterson's impressive tenure, the Horned Frogs surged to a perfect regular season and made the national championship. Expecting that is unfair, but could any of Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State or UCF defy expectations and rise beyond a simple bowl contender?
Coaches on the Hot Seat
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The only legitimate hot seat is stationed in West Virginia, which is nearing a potentially uncomfortable decision with Neal Brown.
In four years at WVU, he's posted a 22-25 record with seven losses in all three full seasons. Plus, the Mountaineers are 14-21 in conference action, maxing out at four Big 12 victories in a given year.
Brown's buyout will still be around $12.7 million after the 2023 campaign, so this isn't an inexpensive decision. Five average seasons may be evidence for WVU to make a change, though.
Two coaches to monitor are Houston's Dana Holgorsen and Oklahoma's Brent Venables. Neither one is likely to (nor should) happen—Holgorsen's buyout is just under $15 million, while Venables has a fully guaranteed deal through 2027—but they're at least on the fringe of the radar.
Best Games on Tap
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Nonconference Games
Sep. 2: West Virginia at Penn State
Sep. 8 and 9: Illinois at Kansas; Texas at Alabama; Oregon at Texas Tech; Utah at Baylor; UCF at Boise State
Sep. 16: BYU at Arkansas; Kansas State at Missouri
Sep. 23: SMU at TCU
West Virginia could set a different tone for 2023 with an opening win at Penn State. Then, there's a Week 2 feast. After the Friday night clash in Kansas, Saturday's slate includes Texas' trip to Alabama and three more outings with potentially ranked opponents. SEC matchups for BYU and K-State in Week 3 precede TCU's rivalry game in Week 4.
Top Conference Games
Sep. 23: UCF at Kansas State
Sep. 30: Kansas at Texas
Oct. 7: Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas)
Oct. 21: TCU at Kansas State; UCF at Oklahoma
Nov. 4: Kansas State at Texas
Nov. 11: Texas at TCU
Nov. 24: TCU at Oklahoma; Texas Tech at Texas
Of course, there's the Red River affair between OU and Texas for the final edition as Big 12 rivals (for now?). But September tests for Kansas State and Texas will be worth watching. TCU has several chances to disrupt the standings later in the season as Texas attempts to navigate a tricky November stretch.
Best of the Rest
Sep. 23: Oklahoma at Cincinnati; Texas at Baylor
Oct. 6: Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Oct. 14: Kansas State at Texas Tech
Oct. 28: Oklahoma at Kansas
Nov. 2 and 4: TCU at Texas Tech; Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Honestly, basically any other game on the schedule? One fascinating part of this Big 12 season is while the league seems relatively thin on national threats, there probably isn't a true bottom-feeder, either. BYU, Houston, Iowa State and West Virginia have uphill climbs to bowl bids, yet it wouldn't be shocking if any of them reached six wins.
Best Offense: Texas Longhorns
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With apologies to The Who, I'm ready to get fooled again.
Ewers is not a proven quarterback, and he didn't play particularly well in mid-October to mid-November last season. Still, his flashes of upside were apparent. Beyond a brilliant pre-injury quarter opposite Alabama, he shredded Oklahoma and helped the Longhorns win at Kansas State.
In addition to his improved health and an ever-valuable year of experience, Ewers has a hugely talented supporting cast.
Along with Worthy and Sanders, the Horns' pass-catching corps includes Isaiah Neyor—who's back from a knee injury—Jordan Whittington, Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell and a few recent blue-chip prospects.
Texas also returns the entire offensive line. While the blocking unit didn't thrive overall last year, optimism is reasonably high. Banks is a cornerstone piece at left tackle, while center Jake Majors has been a lynchpin of the Texas front for several years now.
The major change is at running back, where the Horns lost superstar Bijan Robinson and quality second-stringer Roschon Johnson. Jonathon Brooks, however, is a promising runner with 340 yards (at 6.7 per carry) and six touchdowns in limited snaps over the last two years.
Best Defense: Cincinnati Bearcats
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After head coach Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin, Cincinnati hired Scott Satterfield and dove into the transfer portal. Whether those additions shine on offense will largely shape how the Bearcats play in 2023.
But this defense is well-built for its Big 12 entry.
Last year, linemen Dontay Corleone and Jowon Briggs both landed first-team All-AAC honors. They return up front alongside Malik Vann—who notched 8.5 tackles for loss in 2021 but effectively missed the 2022 campaign due to a pectoral injury—and Daniel Grzesiak. The edge-rushing transfer from Utah State posted 13 stops for loss in 2022.
Jack Dingle is a breakout candidate at linebacker and should start next to Louisville transfer Dorian Jones. Deshawn Pace (62 tackles last year) is a likely fit as a hybrid-type outside linebacker/nickelback, though Taj Ward is another good nickel.
In the secondary, safety Bryon Threats and corner Sammy Anderson Jr. are back with reinforcements from transfers Jordan Young (Florida), D.J. Taylor (Arizona State) and George Udo (BYU).
While the Bearcats' depth will be tested, they're ready to compete at the power-conference level defensively.
Projected Standings
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Bowl-Eligible Teams
Texas: 9-3 (7-2 in Big 12)
Kansas State: 9-3 (7-2)
Oklahoma: 9-3 (6-3)
TCU: 8-4 (5-4)
Kansas: 7-5 (5-4)
Oklahoma State: 7-5 (5-4)
Texas Tech: 7-5 (5-4)
UCF: 7-5 (5-4)
Baylor: 6-6 (4-5)
Just Missed
Cincinnati: 5-7 (4-5)
BYU: 4-8 (3-6)
West Virginia: 4-8 (3-6)
Houston: 5-7 (2-7)
Iowa State: 4-8 (2-7)
Projected Big 12 Championship: Texas vs. Kansas State
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While the College Football Playoff likely isn't in the Big 12's future for 2023, a hotly contested league race looks inevitable.
Texas has a decently difficult slate, but a league road schedule of Baylor, Houston, TCU and Iowa State is favorable. Avoid meltdowns outside of Austin, and the Longhorns should have a shot at a Big 12 crown.
Meanwhile, there's an appealing steadiness to Kansas State. An experienced blocking unit in front of a sturdy, Howard-led backfield with Phillip Brooks returning at receiver is an intriguing mix. Plus, excluding the 2020 season, K-State has consistently fielded a high-end Big 12 defense under Chris Klieman.
Oklahoma and TCU are otherwise the main threats, but K-State lands the slightest of nods to take on Texas.
And in that matchup, the Longhorns leave AT&T Stadium celebrating one final—until realignment reverts in 2047—Big 12 championship.
