Predicting NBA's Top 30 Guards for 2023-24 Season
Bleacher Report is predicting the top 100 NBA players for the 2023-24 season—a ranking we'll reveal in full on Thursday, August 31 in the B/R app.
Ahead of Thursday's main course, we have a series of appetizers breaking down our top guards, wings and bigs for the new campaign, all based on our final top 100 order.
Today we're tipping things off with guards, but you'll find wings in the B/R app on Tuesday, and then bigs on Wednesday.
How did we do it? Jump ahead for a quick look at the method to the madness.
*Check out every team's complete list of Top 30 Guards at the end, and hit the comments to share what we got right and which players will prove us wrong in 2023-24.
The Process
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B/R asked its best basketball minds to answer a series of random Player A vs. Player B debates. The question for each debate:
"Which player will rank higher by the end of the 2023-24 season?"
In total, we compiled 8,632 votes across nearly 20 participants, narrowing our final player pool down to a top 110.
From there, a panel of experts each ranked every player from 1 to 110. They used their own criteria, considering everything from individual production, impact on winning (during both the regular season and the playoffs) and also health/availability.
All rankings were compiled and averaged. And then, voila!
B/R NBA 100 was set, with a list of 10 difficult cuts as honorable mentions.
Only thing left to do was separate players by today's common positions: guards, wings, bigs.
How did we determine positions, you ask? Check it out below.
Primary Positions
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To determine whether a player classified as a guard, wing or big, we consulted Basketball Reference and the "Position Estimate" at each of the five traditional positions.
One thing we did not do? We did not ignore the eye test.
If a player's Position Estimate showed his primary position as PF, but he's generally perceived as a "wing" on the court, we leaned into subjectivity.
Just Missed the Cut
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The slides that follow spotlight our top 30 guard predictions for the 2023-24 season. But there were more than 30 guards in our final top 100.
Here's a look at which players nearly missed the top 30 but did make (or fell just outside) our overall top 100.
Honorable Mentions: Marcus Smart, Anfernee Simons, CJ McCollum, Jordan Poole, Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson, Jalen Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, Devin Vassell, Bennedict Mathurin, Jaden Ivey, Mike Conley, D'Angelo Russell
29. Chris Paul & Austin Reaves (tie)
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Chris Paul 2022-23 Stats — 13.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 8.9 APG, 44.0 FG%, 37.5 3PT% (59 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Chris Paul will go down as a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but the Phoenix Suns decided to waive him outright to save money or find a trade. He was eventually dealt to the Washington Wizards but was quickly re-routed to the Golden State Warriors (for Jordan Poole). Paul goes from contender to lottery team (for a few days) to contender—where at 38, he won't have to carry too heavy a load.
His lower ranking must be age/injury concerns; he's still arguably the best true point guard in the league (most of the All-Star ball-handlers look to score first). Defensively, he has to pace himself but can bring it down the stretch of close games. Look for the Warriors to manage his time wisely and for Paul to look better than quite a few of the players listed ahead of him.
—Eric Pincus
Austin Reaves 2022-23 Stats —13.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 52.9 FG%, 39.8 3PT% (64 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Undrafted in 2021, Austin Reaves has quickly climbed the ranks from rotation player to sixth man to now a starter on a Western Conference Finals Los Angeles Lakers squad. Entering his third year, Reaves has already locked in a solid contract ($53.8 million over four years, player option on the final season). He's quickly become a core piece for the Lakers, who hope to improve upon last season's impressive run.
Reaves is a fan favorite in L.A., in part because he plays hard on both ends of the floor but also because he puts up numbers. Those numbers also (mostly) climbed in the postseason to 16.9 PPG, 46.4 FG%, 44.3 3PT% and 89.5 FT%.
—Pincus
28. Derrick White
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2022-23 Stats — 12.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.9 APG, 46.2 FG%, 38.1 3PT% (82 games played)
Primary Position — SG
The Boston Celtics were sold enough on Derrick White to move stalwart Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies. White played all 82 games last year for the Celtics and was rock-solid through the playoffs, averaging 13.4 points on 45.5 percent shooting from three-point range.
White will presumably take on Smart's role as a do-everything guard (defense, scoring, shooting, etc.). He may not be a primary playmaker, but the Celtics haven't operated with one in recent years. Instead, White will share those duties with others like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Malcolm Brogdon.
—Pincus
27. Tyler Herro
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2022-23 Stats — 20.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, 43.9 FG%, 37.8 3PT% (67 Games Played)
Primary Position — SG
Tyler Herro is more polarizing than he should be. Whether it's his contract, his defensive deficiencies or the early hype he received—for making significant playoff contributions as a rookie, mind you—people like picking apart his game. He has holes (anything related to defense), but his movement shooting and flashes of live-dribble passing point to an interesting future.
This season should determine whether that scrutiny has merit. He could spend it outside of Miami as someone else's key cog, or he'll attempt to become the missing piece in the Heat's half-court offense. We know he can score, but can he do it efficiently enough to cover for his defensive issues? Stay tuned.
—Zach Buckley
26. Desmond Bane
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2022-23 Stats — 21.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 47.9 FG%, 40.8 3PT% (58 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Full disclosure: I had Desmond Bane about 20 spots higher than his final spot in our Top 100. Not many players average over 20 points, four assists, shoot over 40 percent from three and play above-average defense.
If Bane has a similar performance this season and misses fewer games (he missed 24 last season), he'll skyrocket up the rankings for 2024-25.
—Joey Akeley
25. Klay Thompson
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2022-23 Stats — 21.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 43.6 FG%, 41.2 3PT% (69 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Klay Thompson continued his remarkable consistency on offense last season, averaging 20-plus points for the seventh consecutive season he's played in. And he's shot at least 40 percent from three in nine of his 10 seasons.
What keeps Thompson this low in our order is his declining defensive impact. He's essentially a league-average defender in Dunks and Threes' EPM.
Shooting 25 percent in the last four playoff games against the Lakers didn't help, either.
—Akeley
24. Fred VanVleet
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2022-23 Stats — 19.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 7.2 APG, 39.3 FG%, 34.2 3PT% (69 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Fred VanVleet is equal parts fearless and relentless. He wouldn't be in this spot—inking a $130 million pact as a (generously listed?) 6'0" point guard who entered the league as an undrafted free agent—without those traits. Houston needed a culture change, and he should be the perfect leader to usher one in.
But he'll turn 30 soon, and you wonder if the aging process could be unkind to him on the court. He has always had trouble scoring inside the arc, and his three-point splash rate took a huge hit last season (career-worst 34.2 percent). For all that he offers as an on-court communicator and connector, he'll have trouble handling so many minutes and touches if he can't get his shooting back on track.
—Buckley
23. Tyrese Maxey
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2022-23 Stats — 20.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 48.1 FG%, 43.4 3PT% (60 games played)
Primary Position — SG
The Philadelphia 76ers boast the league's reigning MVP in Joel Embiid, yet Tyrese Maxey might be the most beloved player on the team. His rapid ascent into a dynamic, three-level scorer has surprised even the Sixers, as team president Daryl Morey is quick to admit.
Maxey's development as a playmaker will be the biggest area of focus moving forward, particularly depending on how the ongoing James Harden trade saga plays out. But whether he's a long-term complement to Embiid or the cornerstone of a rebuild if the Sixers eventually pivot from their star center, Maxey's exuberance and insatiable work ethic should make him a fan favorite in Philadelphia for years to come.
—Bryan Toporek
22. LaMelo Ball
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2022-23 Stats — 23.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 8.4 APG, 41.1 FG%, 37.6 3PT% (36 Games Played)
Primary Position — PG
LaMelo Ball's contract extension (estimated at $205.9 million over five additional seasons) with the Charlotte Hornets suggests he's worth a higher ranking than the 22nd-best guard. That's for him to prove—as one of the more exciting young guards in the NBA. Before a fractured ankle ended his season prematurely in late February, Ball averaged 23.3 points and 8.4 assists per game.
The Hornets were dreadful last season, partly because of roster composition, but injuries were a significant factor. Ball played only 36 games as a third-year player. In his second season, Ball played a more robust 75, putting up similar numbers (20.1 points and 7.6 assists). The Hornets are banking on his durability.
Ball, 22, is still very young and has a lot to learn, but a lot of what he can already do can't be taught. He's a bit wild and unpredictable, a strength and a weakness. He needs to grow as a defender, though the front office may try to build around Ball with defensive-minded players who can shoot and finish. That he's 6'7" gives him potential on that end of the floor, unlike smaller guards who get targeted (especially in the playoffs).
—Pincus
21. Dejounte Murray
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2022-23 Stats — 20.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.1 APG, 46.4 FG%, 34.4 3PT% (74 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Having less responsibility (and opportunity) on both ends of the floor understandably limited Dejounte Murray's production a bit last season. His averages for points, rebounds, assists and steals all dropped from their 2021-22 levels.
And perhaps even more alarming than that, when he was on the floor, the Atlanta Hawks' net rating was significantly worse.
For at least the first year of the Murray-Trae Young partnership, things didn't go great.
It's too early to give up on the experiment, though. In theory, it still makes sense. Murray is undoubtedly a better perimeter defender than Young and can spare him some difficult matchups. He might also be able to generate a few more catch-and-shoot opportunities for his point guard. Hopefully, 2022-23 was just the adjustment period.
—Andy Bailey
20. Zach LaVine
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2022-23 Stats — 24.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.2 APG, 48.5 FG%, 37.5 3PT% (77 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Zach LaVine steadily improved last season coming off summer knee surgery, averaging 26.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and shooting 50.4 percent overall and 38.0 percent from three from December 23 on.
At age 28 LaVine should be in the prime of his career and is still a premier athlete. While his defense and impact on winning can be fairly questioned, LaVine is just one of nine players to average 23 points per game or more each of the last five years.
Getting the Bulls back to the playoffs would do wonders for LaVine's standing here, especially as Chicago leans more on his playmaking ability with Lonzo Ball sidelined.
—Greg Swartz
19. Cade Cunningham
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2022-23 Stats — 19.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.0 APG, 41.5 FG%, 27.9 3PT% (12 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Slotting Cade Cunnington here means expecting he's ready to build off last year's start that a shin injury interrupted. At 21 years old, he was averaging 19.9 points despite shooting just 27.9 percent from three, a number he's sure to improve on throughout his third season.
At 6'7", 220 pounds, Cunningham appears on track toward becoming one of the tougher ball-handlers to contain with his tight command, ability to rise and separate into pull-ups and bully smaller defenders on drives. But his passing is equally as impressive as the three-level scoring, and with the Detroit Pistons getting a second-year Jaden Ivey, explosive play-finishers in Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren and sharpshooting Bojan Bogdanović, Cunningham suddenly has quality shot-making and athletic targets.
Though 2021 top-four picks Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes had better rookie seasons, they stalled a bit as a sophomores at a time when Cunningham seemed poised to take a leap. The former No. 1 overall pick seems like a very good bet to quickly become one of the league's few players to average 20 points, five boards and five assists.
—Jonathan Wasserman
18. Darius Garland
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2022-23 Stats — 21.6 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 7.8 APG, 46.2 FG%, 41.0 3PT% (69 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Donovan Mitchell's presence may have prevented Garland from being named an All-Star for the second straight season, although it certainly didn't affect his production. The 23-year-old point guard's numbers were remarkably similar compared to the prior year's 21.7 points, 8.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 46.2 percent shooting, even while sharing the court with another premier scorer and playmaker.
Garland has the mechanics to become one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA and is coming off a career-high 41.0 percent mark from deep overall and 44.0 percent on catch-and-shoot looks.
Improving his defense and taking even more shots from three is the next step in Garland's evolution.
—Swartz
17. Jrue Holiday
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2022-23 Stats — 19.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 7.4 APG, 47.9 FG%, 38.4 3PT% (67 Games Played)
Primary Position — PG
In five of the past six seasons, Jrue Holiday has found his way onto an All-Defensive roster with three first-team selections secured over this stretch. He has similarly blossomed on the offensive end, pairing solid support scoring with sound decision-making and accurate shooting, manifested in a stat line over the last six seasons featuring 19.1 points on 48.3/36.6/77.7 shooting with 6.8 assists against 2.8 turnovers.
If a healthy Khris Middleton can be Milwaukee's second in command again, then Holiday should rank among basketball's best third options. That may not sound like the most glamorous label, but his willingness to play his part—with job demands changing on a nightly basis—is a quietly massive part of the Bucks' success.
He may not play the flashiest game, but he has mastered the art of bringing brute force to the backcourt. His physicality, poise and endless energy supply have helped him rank favorably among the league's most reliable lead guards, and the fact the 33-year-old isn't overly reliant on athleticism should allow him to continue aging gracefully.
—Buckley
16. Jalen Brunson
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2022-23 Stats — 24.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 6.2 APG, 49.1 FG%, 41.6 3PT% (68 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Jalen Brunson thrived in his first year as a starting point guard, averaging 24.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists and shooting 41.6 percent from three.
The 26-year-old was exactly what New York needed, as Brunson's scoring, playmaking and lack of turnovers carried the Knicks to the best offense in franchise history (117.8 rating).
Winning a playoff series as a No. 5 seed was icing on the cake for Brunson, who should make his first All-Star Game this season while potentially making New York a home-court advantage team in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
—Swartz
15. Bradley Beal
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2022-23 Stats — 23.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 50.6 FG%, 36.5 3PT% (50 games played)
Primary Position — SG
There's no doubt Bradley Beal had some monster individual seasons with the Washington Wizards. In 2019-20 and 2020-21, he averaged 30.9 points, 5.2 assists and 2.6 threes. But lack of team success suggested he may not be best suited for the kind of role that allows him to score like that.
With the Phoenix Suns, where he'll typically be the third option (and maybe even the fourth, depending on how Deandre Ayton looks on a given night), Beal almost certainly figures to look better.
Opposing teams will often send their third- or fourth-best defender at Beal, allowing him to get cleaner looks on his jumpers and perhaps preserve a bit more energy for the defensive end.
Beal may have been miscast as a No. 1, and now he has a chance to be one of the league's very best No. 3s in support of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
—Bailey
14. Tyrese Haliburton
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2022-23 Stats — 20.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 10.4 APG, 49.0 FG%, 40 3PT% (56 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Run this same exercise one year from now, and there's a non-zero chance Tyrese Haliburton jumps 20 spots in our final Top 100 rankings. If you haven't fully bought into the idea of him becoming a franchise talent, this campaign should obliterate any lingering doubts.
No, he isn't the most explosive athlete, and yes, his shooting form is funkier than an Anderson .Paak album. None of that matters to Haliburton's impact, which has a chance to go from obvious to astounding over the course of the upcoming campaign.
Between Indy's offseason investments (Bruce Brown, Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard and Obi Toppin) and Haliburton's summer spent with Team USA, his trajectory is pointed all the way up. He is a master manipulator of opposing defenses, using his handles, vision, eyes and creativity to consistently stay two steps ahead. Add a pull-up three and point-blank finishing to the mix, and you might be looking at the game's next unguardable floor general.
This past season, which was disjointed by injuries and spent alongside a developing supporting cast, saw Haliburton average 20.7 points and 10.4 assists while flirting with a 50/40/90 slash and coughing up just 2.5 turnovers in 33.6 minutes. Oh, and he hasn't even celebrated his 24th birthday yet (that's coming in February). If the Pacers sprint out of the gates, don't be surprised to hear his name in early MVP talks. He could be that special.
—Buckley
13. Trae Young
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2022-23 Stats — 26.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 10.2 APG, 42.9 FG%, 33.5 3PT% (73 games played)
Primary Position — PG
World-class maestros would be impressed by Trae Young's ability to conduct an NBA offense. His pick-and-roll prowess is arguably unmatched, and his mere floor presence almost guarantees Atlanta a top-five attack.
Now, this is where some note that Young's defensive limitations (stemming mostly from his lack of size at 6'1", 164 lbs) might also ensure the Hawks a bottom-third defense. But that isn't our puzzle to solve; Atlanta's front office and head coach Quin Snyder have to crack that code.
Still, there's a reason the Hawks keep trying to make this work with Young. His all-caps ELITE offense offsets his negatives and then some. Only two players have ever averaged at least 25 points and nine assists in more than two seasons. One is Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson. The other is Young, a 24-year-old who has cleared those marks in four consecutive campaigns (a stretch that started in his sophomore season).
His lack of physical tools should be a hindrance—and are defensively—but he has hidden them on offense under a pile of deep threes, soft floaters, pocket passes and perfectly placed lobs. He is an offensive savant, and this league would be in real trouble if Atlanta ever figured out how to assemble a top-third defense around him.
—Buckley
12. Kyrie Irving
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2022-23 Stats — 27.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 5.5 APG, 49.4 FG%, 37.9 3PT% (60 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Kyrie Irving's talent is higher than his ranking in our final Top 100, which publishes Thursday. But the voters may not trust him to reliably show up and play (be it health, a recurring concern, or personal matters, also a recurring concern). Otherwise, Irving's skill level is otherworldly.
Irving has scored in the 27-points-a-game range over the last few years. He will give the Dallas Mavericks five to six assists nightly, sharing creating duties with All-Star Luka Dončić. The team needed another playmaker to relieve some of that obligation from Dončić—and Irving, an excellent shooter, is a great fit on or off the ball.
The Mavericks will struggle on defense, with neither Irving nor Dončić significant factors. But Irving, who re-signed with the team this summer for three years, $120 million (player option on the final season), will help Dallas outscore many opponents throughout the regular season.
Whether it works in the playoffs is iffier, but the Mavericks should get there this year, provided Irving stays committed to playing and stays healthy.
—Pincus
11. James Harden
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2022-23 Stats — 21.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 10.7 APG, 44.1 FG%, 38.5 3PT% (58 Games Played)
Primary Position — PG
James Harden is currently embroiled in an ugly standoff with the Philadelphia 76ers over their refusal not to offer him a "long-term, maximum-level contract offer," according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Based on what he did last season, it's easy to see why he's frustrated.
Harden led the NBA with 10.7 assists per game to go with 21.0 points on 44.1 percent shooting, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 triples and 1.2 steals in 36.8 minutes across 58 appearances. Although he fell short of All-Star and All-NBA nods, he helped fuel Joel Embiid's MVP campaign, and he was the main reason why the Sixers won Games 1 and 4 against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Harden, who turns 34 toward the end of August, has lost some of the burst that made him one of the league's most feared scorers in the latter half of the 2010s. However, his playmaking should keep him in the All-Star conversation as he advances deeper into his 30s, assuming voters don't hold his three trade requests in as many years against him.
It's still unclear where Harden will be suiting up next season, or whether he'll be suiting up at all. Detach yourself from his off-court histrionics, though, and he remains one of the NBA's top floor generals.
—Toporek
10. Ja Morant
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2022-23 Stats — 26.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 8.1 APG, 46.6 FG%, 30.7 3PT% (61 games played)
Primary Position: PG
Voters were put in a difficult spot regarding Ja Morant's placement. He's suspended for the first 25 games, which on its own is worth dropping him a few spots.
The big question for these rankings and the future of the Grizzlies is: Will this suspension be his last? We all hope so, and he said all the right things when the suspension was announced.
When Morant returns, the key for him rising in our next Top 100 ranking will be better shooting efficiency. His field-goal and three-point percentages dropped from 49.3 and 34.4 in 2021-22 to 46.6 and 30.7, respectively, last season.
On a positive note, Morant upped his assists to 8.1 per game, making him one of just three players to average at least 26 points and eight dimes.
—Akeley
9. Donovan Mitchell
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2022-23 Stats — 28.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.4 APG, 48.4 FG%, 38.6 3PT% (68 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Slinging his way from Utah to Cleveland only increased Donovan Mitchell's production, as he made an All-NBA team for the first time in his career and finished sixth overall in MVP voting.
The 26-year-old guard's 28.3 points-per-game average was a career high as was his 57.2 effective field-goal percentage. We saw Mitchell's best defensive effort since his rookie season, and he made his fourth All-Star Game and first as a starter.
At his best, Mitchell could be the best shooting guard in the NBA this season. At his worst, he's still in the top three to five overall as someone who can score in isolation, run the pick-and-roll or finish in transition. His combination of speed, strength and shooting is everything you can ask for in a guard, one who's yet to hit his peak.
—Swartz
8. De'Aaron Fox
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2022-23 Stats — 25.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 6.1 APG, 51.2 FG%, 32.4 3PT% (73 games played)
Primary Position: PG
De'Aaron Fox just authored the best season of his career, and the scary thing is he should be even better during the 2023-24 campaign.
Fox mastered scoring inside the three-point line, shooting 58.4 percent on twos. His pull-up jumper was devastating against defenders who played off him out of respect for his incredible speed. His scoring and playmaking were big reasons for the Kings posting the best offensive rating in the NBA.
Fox's biggest offensive weakness is three-point shooting, but there's reason to believe he'll improve his 32.4 percent rate from last season. After all, he made 21 threes (33.3 percent) against the Warriors in seven playoff games, and he played about half of that series with a broken finger on his shooting hand.
—Akeley
7. Jamal Murray
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2022-23 Stats — 20.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 6.2 APG, 45.4 FG%, 39.8 3PT% (65 Games Played)
Primary Position: PG
Few players in NBA history get up for the playoffs quite like Jamal Murray. For his career, he has a 0.5 regular-season box plus/minus, which is around the value of a "decent starter or solid sixth man," according to Basketball Reference's scale. In the postseason, that mark jumps to 4.7, which is somewhere between All-Star and All-NBA level. But even that doesn't quite do the difference justice.
For his playoff career, Murray has averaged 25.0 points, 6.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals. Among players with at least 1,000 minutes, LeBron James and Luka Dončić are the only two in history who match or exceed all four marks.
Murray's sense of big moments, and more importantly, his ability to rise to them, are what make his placement here fair. And seeing that ability on vivid display throughout a championship run makes it tough to dispute.
—Bailey
6. Anthony Edwards
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2022-23 Stats — 24.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.4 APG, 45.9 FG%, 36.9 3PT% (79 games played)
Primary Position — SG
While Anthony Edwards' jump in our final Top 100 rankings (publishing in the B/R app Thursday) is notable, it's fair to wonder if we've actually placed Edwards too low. That includes being outside the top five of guards.
Currently the best player on Team USA, despite having just turned 22 years old, Edwards is the next great NBA shooting guard and should push Devin Booker for the title of league's best already this season.
At ages 20 and 21, Edwards gained playoff experience with series of 25.2 points and 31.6 points, respectively, showing his ability to only get better when the lights get brighter. He turned in his best defensive season in 2022-23 as well and could become an All-Defensive team member in a few years.
—Swartz
5. Damian Lillard
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2022-23 Stats — 32.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 7.3 APG, 46.3 FG%, 37.1 3PT% (58 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Assuming his wish for an overdue exit out of Portland is granted, Damian Lillard will take his razor-sharp talents away from the only NBA home he's known. And, depending on his destination, he may greatly impact the 2024 championship race.
High-mileage, athletically gifted point guards aren't supposed to age gracefully, but clearly Dame Time moves at a different speed. His 2022-23 effort was maybe his best to date, as he pumped in a career-high points, matched his third-highest assists average and splashed a personal-best 4.2 triples per night (at a 37.1 percent clip, no less).
Ducking the injury bug could prove increasingly difficult as he gets older, but his offensive concerns start and stop with that worry. If he's healthy, he'll be slaying defensive dragons and steering what should be a high-powered attack, regardless of where he's suiting up.
—Buckley
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
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2022-23 Stats — 31.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 51.0 FG%, 34.5 FG% (68 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had one of the best campaigns of anyone in 2022-23, being named an All-Star for the first time and earning a spot on the All-NBA first team.
Leading a young Thunder team to 40 wins and a spot in the play-in tournament was a pleasant surprise, as the then-24-year-old guard averaged a career-high 31.4 points while shooting 51.0 percent overall.
Only four players in the NBA had more estimated wins contributed than Gilgeous-Alexander's 14.4 per Dunks and Threes, and only Luka Dončić scored more total isolation points than his 472.
One of the best players in the NBA at getting to the basket, Gilgeous-Alexander may only be a reliable three-point shot away from reaching top-10 status in our overall top 100.
—Swartz
3. Devin Booker
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2022-23 Stats — 27.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 49.4 FG%, 35.1 3PT% (53 games played)
Primary Position — SG
How much weight should the postseason have in comparison to the regular season? That's the Devin Booker ranking dilemma, and it's one that'll be even more apparent when we reveal our final Top 100.
In Dunks and Threes' Estimated Plus-Minus for the regular season, Booker ranked tied for 24th. But then the playoffs happened, and Booker put on a show.
The Suns' star guard averaged 33.7 points per game on 58.5 percent shooting. That alone gives him an argument for top-five placement in our Top 100. But he also averaged 7.2 assists (and just 2.9 turnovers) and showed more defensive ability than ever before.
For an 11-game playoff sample size, Booker was arguably the second-best player in the NBA. Voters decided that was enough to get him into the top three guards, but not enough to pass the two stars ahead of him on this list.
—Akeley
2. Stephen Curry
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2022-23 Stats — 29.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 6.3 APG, 49.3 FG%, 42.7 3PT% (56 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Stephen Curry is still in his prime.
That's not supposed to be the case for a 35-year-old, but how can anyone deny it after he averaged 29.4 points per game on great efficiency in the regular season and upped his scoring average to 30.5 points in the playoffs?
Though he did have a few empty possessions in big moments of Games 1 and 4 against the Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals, it's perhaps harsh that on this list he's below a player who didn't make the playoffs.
If Curry maintains his 2022-23 play this season, even this ranking—a second-place finish among guards—could prove to be too low when the year comes to a close.
—Akeley
1. Luka Dončić
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2022-23 Stats — 32.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 8.0 APG, 49.6 FG%, 34.2 3PT% (66 games played)
Primary Position — PG
Still just 24 years old, Dončić is coming off a career high in scoring and effective field-goal percentage (56.0 percent). No player in the NBA scored more isolation points than Dončić's 523, as he also got to the free-throw line at a personal-best 10.5 times a game.
In an NBA seemingly adding more and more oversized playmaking guards and wings, Dončić may be the very best of the bunch with the way he can methodically break down a defense using his bag of tricks and superb footwork. He's an elite passer who can snap defenders' necks by finding open teammates at a moment's notice.
Dončić may still be a step behind a few players in the league in terms of personal accolades and team success, but this is easily one of the game's greatest talents who will be coming for his crown soon enough.
—Swartz
Top 30 Guards By Team
33 of 33
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young (13), Dejounte Murray (21)
Boston Celtics: Derrick White (28)
Brooklyn Nets: N/A
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball (22)
Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine (20)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell (9), Darius Garland (18)
Dallas Mavericks: Luka Dončić (1), Kyrie Irving (12)
Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray (7)
Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham (19)
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry (2), Klay Thompson (25), Chris Paul (T-29)
Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet (24)
Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton (14)
LA Clippers: N/A
Los Angeles Lakers: Austin Reaves (T-29)
Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant (10), Desmond Bane (26)
Miami Heat: Tyler Herro (27)
Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holiday (17)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards (6)
New Orleans Pelicans: N/A
New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson (16)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4)
Orlando Magic: N/A
Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden (11), Tyrese Maxey (23)
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker (3), Bradley Beal (15)
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard (5)
Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox (8)
San Antonio Spurs: N/A
Toronto Raptors: N/A
Utah Jazz: N/A
Washington Wizards: N/A
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