Ranking Justin Verlander to Astros and the Best and Worst Deals of MLB Trade Deadline
The 2023 MLB trade deadline saw an aggressive dismantling of the New York Mets' high-priced roster, several notable rental starters make their way to contenders and a handful of the league's top prospects find new homes.
Future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander went from Mets teammates to AL West rivals in a matter of days, with Scherzer joining the division-leading Texas Rangers and Verlander returning to the Houston Astros.
Lucas Giolito (LAA), Michael Lorenzen (PHI), Jack Flaherty (BAL) and Rich Hill (SD) will join contenders as two-month rentals, while Aaron Civale (TB) was the only notable controllable starting pitcher dealt beyond Verlander and Scherzer.
As the dust settles on an active deadline day and a busy week of trading across baseball, this is the perfect time for some early takes on the best and worst deals of the 2023 deadline.
Ahead we'll alternate between the best and worst to count down the five notable trades on each end of the spectrum, based on both the short-term and long-term outlook of each deal.
No. 5 Worst: Padres Give Up a Quality Prospect for Pittsburgh's Spare Parts
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To SD: LHP Rich Hill, 1B Ji-Man Choi
To PIT: LHP Jackson Wolf, OF Estuar Suero, 1B Alfonso Rivas
Ageless wonder Rich Hill has tossed 119 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season with a 4.76 ERA and 1.48 WHIP while pitching on a one-year, $8 million deal.
First baseman Ji-Man Choi has been hurt for much of the year, but he quietly posted a .930 OPS with three doubles and four home runs in 44 plate appearances in July.
Both players have the potential to provide some useful value on the fringe of the roster for a contending team, but do they really move the need for the San Diego Padres enough to part with a legitimate prospect?
Left-hander Jackson Wolf checked in at No. 20 on San Diego's organizational ranks in Baseball America's midseason update, and he has moved quickly through the minor league ranks since going in the fourth round of the 2021 draft.
The 6'7", 205-pound southpaw has a 4.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 105 strikeouts in 88.1 innings at Double-A this season, and he even made a spot start in the majors a couple weeks ago, allowing six hits and three runs in five innings to pick up the win against the Detroit Tigers.
He doesn't have overpowering stuff with a fastball that generally sits in the upper 80s, but a deceptive arm slot and a pair of quality off-speed pitches help him keep hitters off balance, and his results in the minors thus far speak for themselves.
This could be a trade the Padres come to regret a few years down the road.
No. 5 Best: Dodgers Get Potential Under-the-Radar Steal in Ryan Yarbrough
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To LAD: LHP Ryan Yarbrough
To KC: IF Devin Mann, SS Derlin Figueroa
The Los Angeles Dodgers walked away with the biggest potential steal of deadline day when they traded for Kansas City Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough.
The 31-year-old missed two months after taking a 106.2 mph line drive to the face and suffering multiple fractures back in early May, but he has been lights out since returning to the mound just before the All-Star break.
Here's a look at his four starts since he was activated from the injured list:
- July 9 @ CLE: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER
- July 19 vs. DET: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
- July 24 @ CLE: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER
- July 30 vs. MIN: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 ER
That adds up to a 2.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 24.2 innings, and aside from his work as a starter, Yarbrough also has experience pitching in a relief role during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, so he could fill a variety of roles on the Dodgers staff down the stretch and into October.
Throw in the fact that he comes with an additional year of arbitration control in 2024, and it could end up being one of the most impactful moves of the deadline.
It was a solid pivot by the Dodgers front office after they were rebuffed by Eduardo Rodríguez, and it will be interesting to see how Yarbrough's numbers compare to his the rest of the way.
No. 4 Worst: Twins Put the Finishing Touches on Disappointing Jorge López Era
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To MIN: RHP Dylan Floro
To MIA: RHP Jorge López
Last summer, the Minnesota Twins acquired All-Star closer Jorge López from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for a package of four pitching prospects.
With his club control through the 2024 season, it looked like a move that would help stabilize the Minnesota relief corps for multiple seasons. Instead, López struggled to a 5.09 ERA in 37 appearances this year, tallying more blown saves (4) than saves (3) while his strikeout rate plummeted from 24.2 to 17.4 percent.
The Twins cut their losses on July 26 when they flipped López to the Miami Marlins in exchange for another struggling late-inning reliever in Dylan Floro, who had a 4.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 43 appearances at the time of the trade.
In the process, the Twins gave up an additional year of control, as Floro will be a free agent at season's end, while López is arbitration-eligible in 2024.
However, the real salt in the wound of this entire situation is the fact that 2023 All-Star Yennier Cano was traded to the Orioles as part of that unheralded package of pitching prospects last summer.
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No. 4 Best: A Win-Win Deal in the Aaron Civale-for-Kyle Manzardo Swap
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To TB: RHP Aaron Civale
To CLE: 1B Kyle Manzardo
It's not often two contending teams make a trade deadline deal and both walk away looking like winners, but that's the immediate takeaway from the Aaron Civale-for-Kyle Manzardo swap between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays.
With the emergence of rookies Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams in the Cleveland rotation, the Guardians front office seized the opportunity to flip a controllable starter for some much needed offense.
Manzardo checked in No. 49 on B/R's most recent Top 100 prospect list. After hitting .327/.426/.617 with 26 doubles, 22 home runs and 81 RBI in 93 games between High-A and Double-A in his first full professional season last year, he has a .783 OPS in 73 games as one of the youngest players at the Triple-A level.
With Josh Bell flipped to Miami in a separate deadline deal, Manzardo could immediately join the Cleveland lineup.
For the Rays, they traded a player who was firmly blocked in a crowded infield picture for a starting pitcher in Civale who has a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 77 innings.
The 28-year-old is controllable through the 2025 season, and earning a team-friendly $2.6 million this season, making him the ideal pickup for a cost-conscious franchise.
This truly looks like a deal that will benefit both sides down the stretch in 2023 and for the next several seasons.
No. 3 Worst: Royals Sell Extremely Low on Nicky Lopez
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To KC: LHP Taylor Hearn
To ATL: SS Nicky Lopez
Just two years ago, Nicky Lopez was a 4.4-WAR player for the Kansas City Royals when he hit .300/.365/.378 with 29 extra-base hits and 22 steals while playing standout defense at shortstop.
The 28-year-old is batting just .213/.323/.281 in 190 plate appearances this season, but he has still been a 1.1-WAR player thanks to strong defensive metrics at second base, shortstop and third base.
Despite his positive value, the Royals traded him to the Atlanta Braves for left-hander Taylor Hearn, a pitcher the Braves had just acquired a few days earlier for cash considerations.
The 28-year-old Hearn has allowed seven hits, six walks and 12 earned runs in 7.1 innings in the majors this year, and he has a 5.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 229.1 career frames spanning 25 starts and 68 relief appearances.
It's hard to believe that's all the Royals could get for an elite defensive infielder with club control through 2025.
No. 3 Best: Mariners Take Advantage of a Seller's Market, D-Backs Get a Closer
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To SEA: IF Josh Rojas, OF Dominic Canzone, IF Ryan Bliss
To ARI: RHP Paul Sewald
Seattle Mariners team president Jerry Dipoto has often taken an opportunistic approach at the trade deadline, pursuing deals as both a buyer and seller, and with the team sitting on the fringe of wild-card contention, that was the perfect approach this year.
In a seller's market, he flipped veteran closer Paul Sewald to an Arizona Diamondbacks team in serious need of late-inning relief help, and in return brought back an impressive package of talent.
Versatile infielder Josh Rojas is having a down season, but he's just a year removed from posting a 112 OPS+ with 35 extra-base hits, 23 steals and 3.2 WAR, and he is controllable through 2026.
Outfielder Dominic Canzone made his MLB debut in early July after hitting .354/.431/.634 with 18 doubles, 16 home runs and 71 RBI in 71 games at Triple-A Reno while tallying nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (40).
Infielder Ryan Bliss earned a spot in the Futures Game this season, and the 2021 second-round pick is hitting .332/.391/.556 with 27 doubles, six triples, 13 home runs, 51 RBI and 35 steals in 81 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
Meanwhile, Sewald shores up a D-backs bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors with a 4.44 ERA and has converted just 28 of 47 save opportunities on the year. The 33-year-old has a 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 12.6 K/9 with 21 saves in 24 chances, and with arbitration control through next season he is more than just a rental.
A terrific move for all involved.
No. 2 Worst: Tigers Get a Lackluster Return for Michael Lorenzen
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To DET: 2B Hao-Yu Lee
To PHI: RHP Michael Lorenzen
Let's do a quick side-by-side comparison of two of the top rental pitchers on this year's trade market:
- Player A: 21 GS, 3.79 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 136 K, .232 BAA, 126.1 IP
- Player B: 18 GS, 3.58 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 83 K, .233 BAA, 105.2 IP
Player A brought back a consensus top-100 prospect and a high-ceiling pitching prospect a year removed from pitching in the Futures Game.
Player B brought back a 20-year-old second baseman who is hitting .279/.367/.395 and could have his long-term value capped by a lack of extra-base pop and a limited defensive profile.
Lucas Giolito is Player A and Michael Lorenzen is Player B.
Giolito has a longer track record of front-line production, but both pitchers are a straightforward two-month rental, and outside of Giolito's superior strikeout numbers, it's Lorenzen who has been the better pitcher in 2023.
Even with reputation taken into account, it still doesn't feel like there should be such a glaring difference in the two return packages.
The fact that the Tigers were also unable to come to terms on an Eduardo Rodríguez trade made Tuesday an all-around disappointing day for a rebuilding Detroit squad in need of controllable young talent.
No. 2 Best: Mets Acquire a Top 100 Prospect, Trim $22.5 Million from Books
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To NYM: SS Luisangel Acuña
To TEX: RHP Max Scherzer, $35.5 million
Trading Max Scherzer and paying a significant portion of his remaining salary is not how the New York Mets envisioned the future Hall of Famer's time with the team ending, but the front office did an excellent job making the most of a bad situation.
With $14-plus million remaining on this year's salary and a $43.3 million player option for next year, Scherzer represented a huge financial commitment for the Mets amid diminished production. The 39-year-old has a 4.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 121 strikeouts in 107.2 innings.
They managed to turn that sunk cost into consensus top-100 prospect Luisangel Acuña, and while they had to eat $35.5 million in the process, they did manage to unload $22.5 million of his remaining salary.
Essentially, they bought an elite-level prospect for $35 million while also trimming $22.5 million from their future books.
Acuña, 21, is hitting .315/.377/.453 with 34 extra-base hits and 42 steals in 84 games at Double-A this season. He checked in at No. 60 in B/R's most recent Top 100 prospect list, which slots him between Ronny Mauricio (No. 39) and Kevin Parada (No. 78) as the new No. 2 prospect in the Mets system.
Not bad for what amounts to a high-profile cost-cutting move.
No. 1 Worst: Mets Fail to Add Pitching Talent in White Flag Justin Verlander Trade
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To NYM: OF Drew Gilbert, OF Ryan Clifford
To HOU: RHP Justin Verlander, cash
The Max Scherzer-to-Texas trade was a shrewd move by the Mets front office, turning a diminishing asset into a top-100 prospect while trimming a nice chunk of payroll off the books in the process.
The Justin Verlander deal is a different story entirely.
While Scherzer was having a down year across the board and pitching more like a No. 3 starter than a high-priced ace, Verlander has been dealing for the past two months with a 2.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 64.1 innings over his last 11 starts.
That shrinks to a 1.49 ERA and a minuscule .178 opponents' batting average in his last seven starts, and it makes sense that it has taken him some time to round into form after he missed the start of the season with a shoulder strain.
Trading him feels like the team waiving the white flag not only for this season, but for next year, and if that's the case they had to prioritize young pitching talent in the return package.
Instead, the Mets landed a pair of outfield prospects—albeit very good outfield prospects—leaving next year's rotation and the future rotation in general as a huge question mark.
Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo is signed through the 2030 season, Jeff McNeil is likely to see more time in the outfield once Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña make a play for the second base job, and 2022 first-round pick Jett Williams is likely ticketed for the outfield as well.
The Dodgers were the logical trade partner with a wealth of controllable, MLB-ready arms and a deep enough prospect pool to part with more than one of them without batting an eye, but instead the Mets settled for outfield talent and Verlander's homecoming in Houston.
No. 1 Best: White Sox Move Quickly, Get Huge Return for Lucas Giolito
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To CWS: C Edgar Quero, LHP Ky Bush
To LAA: RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo López
With a track record of front-line production and strong numbers across the board this season, Lucas Giolito was the best rental starter on the market this summer.
Rather than waiting until deadline day to trade him, the Chicago White Sox moved quickly and sent him to the Los Angeles Angels on July 26 before any other deal was made to set the market for rental starters.
As a result, they walked away with one of the best prospect returns of any deal made this summer, picking up a Top 100 prospect in catcher Edgar Quero and a high-ceiling pitcher in Ky Bush.
Quero hit .312/.435/.530 with 35 doubles, 17 home runs and 75 RBI in 111 games at Single-A last season. The 20-year-old jumped over High-A and went straight to Double-A this season, and he is holding his own as one of the youngest players at the level with a .709 OPS and more walks (56) than strikeouts (55).
He checked in No. 100 on B/R's most recent prospect list and immediately becomes the catcher of the future for the White Sox.
Bush is a 6'6", 240-pound southpaw who posted a 3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 103 innings at Double-A last year while pitching in the Futures Game.
The 23-year-old has struggled to an 8.37 ERA in 33.1 innings this season, but he still has tremendous upside and immediately becomes one of the top pitching prospects in the White Sox system.
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