Deal or No Deal? Predictions for Current NFL Contract Disputes at Training Camp
Over the past few days, NFL teams have rewarded key players with new deals. Trevon Diggs, Andrew Thomas, Uchenna Nwosu, Trey Hendrickson, Cole Kmet and Tytus Howard signed extensions as they ramped up for training camp. Other veterans have certainly taken note while in contract disputes with their clubs.
Even All-Pros and Pro Bowlers face obstacles in negotiations, which may lead to stalled talks, holdouts, hold-ins or trade departures.
Speaking of household names, we'll highlight nine notable players who reportedly want a new contract and provide a verdict, deal or no deal. For each case, we'll explain why the player will or won't get a new contract during training camp.
Typically, these situations come down to a team's willingness to spend cash and use cap space in accordance with the player's positional value and recent productivity.
Nick Bosa, Edge, San Francisco 49ers
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The Athletic's David Lombardi expects Nick Bosa to sign the largest contract in San Francisco 49ers history.
Recently, 49ers general manager John Lynch talked about the task of finding a middle ground with a top-tier playmaker's agent (h/t Lombardi).
"The challenge is you're talking about a real special player," Lynch said. "You're talking about one of the better players in the league. You could argue that could simplify things, but at times, I think it's just that sweet spot. We're committed to working towards that."
As an All-Pro who just won 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Bosa deserves a massive extension, though as Lombardi pointed out, the 49ers must think beyond 2023 as they draw up a new deal for their 25-year-old star pass-rusher:
"While they have about $10 million of 2023 salary-cap room, a number that should actually increase if Bosa signs a backloaded contract, the 49ers already have over $270 million of liabilities against the cap in 2024. That will almost certainly necessitate cost-cutting measures because the salary cap—set at about $225 million for 2023—likely won't hit $270 million in time for 2024."
In all likelihood, the 49ers will come to terms with Bosa in the coming weeks to ensure he's conditioned and ready to go for Week 1. As a result, San Francisco's roster makeup could change dramatically by this time next year.
Verdict: Deal
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
2 of 9
Based on the recent downward trend of the running back market, this is an easy call. J.K. Dobbins will play out the final year of his rookie contract.
The 24-year-old spoke to WJZ-TV about his financial dispute with the Baltimore Ravens after he skipped mandatory minicamp (h/t Jamison Hensley of ESPN).
"The business side is very hard. It's very different," Dobbins said. "You saw with Lamar [Jackson] ... It's never just roses and daisies. It can be hard at times, and it's business though."
At the beginning of training camp, the Ravens placed the Ohio State product on the physically unable to perform list, which makes it less likely that he signs an extension.
After a solid rookie campaign, rushing for 805 yards and nine touchdowns, Dobbins tore his ACL in Baltimore's 2021 preseason finale, which kept him out for the regular season. Because of a lengthy recovery period, he didn't play until Week 3 of the 2022 term but suffered another knee injury that sidelined him for six weeks.
The Ravens won't be eager to pay a banged-up running back who's coming off a season with modest rushing numbers (520 yards and two touchdowns).
Lastly, the Ravens have running backs Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon to fill the rushing void if Dobbins chooses to miss games in protest of his contract situation.
Verdict: No deal
Danielle Hunter, Edge, Minnesota Vikings
3 of 9
In 2022, the Minnesota Vikings gave up the second-most passing yards and allowed the fifth-most points. If they intend to remain a playoff-caliber squad and stay atop the NFC North, they must retain Danielle Hunter.
In June, the linebacker, 28, skipped mandatory minicamp, and though he's present at training camp, he's not expected to participate in practices while in a contract dispute with the team.
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah didn't give a definitive answer when a reporter asked him about Hunter's future with the club.
"It's great to see a great player like that," he said. "Great Viking—really excited. So I just want to make sure I say that, and that's where I'm at right now."
This offseason, the Vikings signed cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and edge-rusher Marcus Davenport, and they then drafted cornerback Mekhi Blackmon and versatile defensive back Jay Ward to revamp their defense under new play-caller Brian Flores.
Minnesota doesn't have a consistent complimentary pass-rusher, though. Davenport registered 21.5 sacks in five seasons (63 contests) with the New Orleans Saints. If the Vikings trade Hunter, opposing quarterbacks and their pass-catchers will have a field day going against Flores' unit.
With a little more than $18 million in cap space, the Vikings can afford to give Hunter a significant pay raise. He's a cornerstone player for a new-look defense.
Verdict: Deal
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Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
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Josh Jacobs won the 2022 rushing title, racking up 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. He also led the league with 2,053 scrimmage yards. Even with all of that production, his agent couldn't find a middle ground with the Las Vegas Raiders on an extension.
Las Vegas franchise-tagged the 25-year-old, but he hasn't signed the tender. After the July 17 deadline to sign franchise players to a multiyear deal passed, he expressed his frustration on social media.
Based on Jacobs' reply to Kenny King Jr. of Blue Wire, he wanted financial security, which is out of the question at this juncture. By the same token, the All-Pro running back may not see Saquon Barkley's reworked one-year deal with the New York Giants as a sufficient resolution for his situation.
According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo (h/t Marcus Mosher of Raiders Wire), Jacobs turned down a contract offer worth up to $12 million annually, but the report doesn't detail the length (years) or guaranteed money of the proposal, which are two key aspects in any contract dispute.
Per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, the Alabama product took a flight out of Las Vegas and "doesn't plan to return anytime soon."
In the meantime, the Raiders may explore trade options if they believe Jacobs is willing to miss regular-season games, especially if they see an impressive showing from Zamir White or Brittain Brown, two of their running backs from last year's draft.
With that said, The Athletic's Tashan Reed reported that the Raiders expect Jacobs to rejoin the team before Week 1.
Verdict: No deal
Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs
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According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Kansas City Chiefs and Chris Jones are "far apart" in negotiations. Head coach Andy Reid told reporters that he was "a bit surprised" when he didn't report to training camp.
The Athletic's Nate Taylor reported that the 29-year-old wants $30 million per year, which would make him the second-highest paid defensive tackle behind Aaron Donald in contract average annual value.
Over the past few months, defensive tackles have cashed in on a bustling market. Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Dexter Lawrence II, Daron Payne and Javon Hargrave have all signed lucrative deals while under contract or on the free-agent market. Going into the final year of his deal, Jones wants in on the action at an opportune time.
He played a big role on the Chiefs' 2022 Super Bowl squad, registering 15.5 sacks, 46 pressures, 44 tackles, 17 for loss, four pass breakups and two forced fumbles.
Though the Chiefs have a young group of defensive ends with George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and rookie first-rounder Felix Anudike-Uzomah all 25 years old or younger, they would benefit from playing alongside Jones, who commands a lot of attention on the interior.
Kansas City can structure Jones' new deal in a way that decreases his 2023 cap number ($28.3 million), though in the long term, the front office will need to find creative ways to keep him and Patrick Mahomes on the books without gutting the rest the roster.
Verdict: Deal
Zack Martin, OG, Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys may be heavily reliant on their ground attack in the upcoming campaign, which raises Zack Martin's value.
The Cowboys hired Brian Schottenheimer, who served as a team consultant last season, to replace Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.
Schottenheimer fielded a top-12 ground attack in his last three seasons (2018-2020) as the Seattle Seahawks' play-caller. In two of those campaigns, the team ranked second or third in rush attempts.
Though Tony Pollard has improved while sharing the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott every year for four terms, he finished the previous campaign with a fractured fibula. Also, after cutting Elliott, the Cowboys don't have a clear-cut No. 2 ball-carrier.
Schottenheimer has a decent backfield, but no one knows how Pollard will perform with an expanded workload or if someone will emerge to spell him in a complementary role. With those question marks at running back, the Cowboys should do their best to satisfy their top offensive lineman.
Martin is a six-time All-Pro who's been an integral part of the Cowboys' ground attack over the past nine years. With $19.7 million in cap space, Dallas has the flexibility to rework the 32-year-old's contract, and that'll probably happen sooner than later.
"You all set the tone. I'll be there soon," he said in a text to his teammates.
Martin should be back with the Cowboys on a new deal well before Week 1.
Verdict: Deal
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
7 of 9
Like J.K. Dobbins and Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor would have to beat the odds with a down running back market to get a new deal. Moreover, among the three ball-carriers, he's least resistant to playing out the 2023 season without an extension.
"It wouldn't be a distraction to me (to not get an extension before the season)," he told reporters. "I'm under contract here for four years. I put the pen to the paper … I made an obligation to them. They made an obligation to me. But things will happen naturally."
Taylor's passive attitude in a contract situation isn't going to help him get a pay raise. He's not a threat to hold out or hold-in. So, the Indianapolis Colts have no reason to sign him to an extension as they go into Year 1 of an offensive rebuild under new head coach Shane Steichen.
In a post on Twitter, Colts owner Jim Irsay pointed his finger at agents for miscalculating the running back market, which essentially puts the kibosh on any talk of a big extension for the 24-year-old.
"We have negotiated a CBA, that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides..to say now that a specific Player category wants another negotiation after the fact, is inappropriate. Some Agents are selling 'bad faith.'"
Taylor may need to bounce back from an injury-riddled campaign and win his second rushing title to command a top-dollar contract from the Colts. Even then, they can just franchise-tag him in 2024.
Verdict: No deal
Devin White, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8 of 9
In April, Devin White caused a stir with a trade request. According to ESPN's Jenna Laine, he became "frustrated" with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over contract talks.
In a subsequent report, Laine revealed (through a source) that the 25-year-old wanted $18-20 million annually, which would make him one of the top four highest-paid linebackers in contract average annual value. She also quoted general manager Jason Licht, who said the team has "no intention" of trading him.
White has two factors that work against him in negotiations.
First and foremost, the Buccaneers have limited financial flexibility. They have $890,308 in cap space with a whopping $75.4 million in dead cap charges this year.
Secondly, his issues in coverage won't help his cause. In two of his last three seasons, he's allowed a passer rating of 104.9 or higher.
When you compare White's coverage skills to the top-five highest-paid linebackers, Roquan Smith, Shaquille Leonard, Fred Warner, Tremaine Edmunds and C.J. Mosley, he doesn't fit in with that high-end group of three-down defenders.
White's agent can tout his client's pass-rushing ability (20.5 career sacks) to justify a major pay increase, but the Buccaneers don't have the financial resources to meet lofty contract demands without cutting or trading key players for cap relief.
Verdict: No deal
Christian Wilkins, DT, Miami Dolphins
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Christian Wilkins hasn't said much publicly about his contract situation other than he'll let his agent do the work behind the scenes. The fifth-year pro didn't skip organized team activities or mandatory minicamp, and he's been present at training camp.
On the surface, the Miami Dolphins and the defensive tackle seem to be on good terms, and he's not a threat to hold out at this point.
Back in March, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said Wilkins' extension is a priority. In June, the 27-year-old spoke as if he would play out the season regardless of what happens in contract talks with the club.
"I'm always motivated, and motivation comes from within, not a dollar amount, but it's just my drive to be the best and be my best," Wilkins said. "No dollar changes that, changes my mindset. Whether something gets done or not, my approach is always the same."
On Thursday, the Dolphins received some bad news for their defense. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, cornerback Jalen Ramsey will undergo knee surgery after going down at practice, which will sideline him until December if everything checks out.
Already down one of their key starters on defense, the Dolphins should make sure they have Wilkins on the field with a new contract even though he's yet to show strong signs of dissatisfaction amid negotiations. With $13.5 million in cap space, Miami should be able to get a deal done.
Verdict: Deal
NFL team cap space and player contract details are provided by Over the Cap.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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