Top 2024 NBA Draft Storylines You Should Know
There have been six popular storylines when discussing the 2024 NBA draft with scouts.
The debate about the No. 1 overall pick seems as open as it's been in years.
An unusual amount of first-round-caliber prospects chose to return to school instead of starting their pro careers.
The transfer portal also suddenly mirrors NBA free agency, as a ridiculous number of prospects have changed schools in hopes of landing roles that suit their strengths.
This upcoming draft class also has a handful of interesting international prospects, some of whom are in the process of committing to high-profile colleges.
Some freshmen committed to schools that now have upperclassmen playing their positions.
And unfortunately, the status of the biggest freshman name in the country is suddenly in question following a shocking health scare.
No. 1 Overall Pick Is wide Open
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Compared to recent years, there is a low level of confidence from scouts trying to project who'll be the No. 1 overall pick in 2024.
It's wide open this year, with candidates coming from college and the G League.
G League Ignite's Ron Holland sits atop our preseason big board. Given the difficulty in identifying this year's top prospect, Holland's high floor holds extra weight at the moment, as there is a comforting level of certainty tied to his 6'8" size, athleticism, motor, defense and age (he turned 18 in July).
A gradual increase in creation and shot-making flashes over the past two years is what fuels Holland's No. 1 overall upside. But at this point, it's the "sure thing" factor tied to his off-ball and two-way impact that give him an edge in our book.
Matas Buzelis, Holland's teammate, has been another popular mention around the NBA. There is an obvious draw to his package of 6'10" size, ball-handling, shot-making and defensive playmaking flashes. He's older than Holland (he turns 19 in October), and we're waiting to see how he handles himself physically. But Buzelis is clearly a candidate to separate himself at No. 1, especially if he shows a comfort level creating and finishing against G League defenders.
USC's Isaiah Collier looked like the best prospect on the floor at the McDonald's All-American Game, where he scored 25 points in under 22 minutes. He combines an uncommon mix of power and passing for a point guard. Collier can operate as a physical downhill driver or setup man with the ability to manipulate and facilitate.
He appeared to take a step in the right direction last year with his shooting, though scouts still question his jumper and decision-making.
Kentucky freshmen D.J. Wagner and Justin Edwards just put together some enticing highlight film against U23 teams in Canada's GLOBL JAM tournament.
Scouts have seemingly seen more of Wagner than any other incoming freshman since he sat near the top of recruiting ranks since his first year of high school. He's an outstanding ball-handler and slasher with a knack for slicing through defenses, finding gaps and finishing at tough angles.
Though Wagner still has something to prove as a three-point shooter, he's demonstrated enough shot-making at Camden and during All-Star events for scouts to remain optimistic. The question is how well he'll sell himself as a 175-pound, score-first guard. Scouts will want to see enough playmaking for them to picture a more complete initiator, as opposed to an undersized combo.
Edwards averaged 18.0 points over his last three GLOBL JAM games. At 6'8", he's a fluid open-floor scorer and slasher who'll use his athleticism and motor to finish plays from off the ball.
While his shooting was on and off in Canada, his shot has improved, and his lefty stroke shows persuasive touch. It's a little tough to buy his half-court creation skill, and he'll turn 20 in December. But Edwards comes off as another high-floor prospect with paths to upside if he keeps improving his handle and shot-making.
Will Returning to College Pay Off for Top Upperclass Prospects?
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A handful of sought-after prospects from last season returned to college instead of declaring or staying in the 2023 NBA draft. NIL money was a likely factor for some, while a perceived weaker 2024 field created the impression that prospects would have an clearer path into the first round or lottery.
It looked like Duke's Tyrese Proctor had an opportunity to capitalize on a strong finish to last season, when his three-ball started falling and he began executing more frequently off his self-creation. Still 19 years old until April, he'll return to Duke presumably with the same confidence and comfort he built up from January to March.
Though he isn't an explosive athlete, Proctor has shown the ball-handling, wiggle and change of direction to get his own shot. His shot-making versatility hints at three-level scoring potential, while his strong assist-to-turnover ratio (119 assists to 58 turnovers) highlights basketball IQ.
Teammate Kyle Filipowski also passed on potential first-round interest in 2023. He figures to be one of the biggest producers in the ACC with his 7'0" size and the skill level to catch fire from three, attack closeouts and score from the post.
Raising his 28.2 three-point percentage and blocking more shots (than 0.7 per game) will make it easier for scouts to detect NBA value.
Connecticut's Donovan Clingan is our top returning prospect, and it made sense for him to come back with Adama Sanogo leaving. Incredibility productive (21.1 points, 17.1 boards, 5.5 blocks per 40 minutes) and impactful (11.4 BPM) in a limited role, Clingan should be looking at full-time minutes while presumably being even more comfortable and conditioned.
Scouts may hope to see him take weight off his 280-pound frame. But even at that size, Clingan was still very mobile and quick off the ground, particularly defensively.
Clingan comes off as an outlier who won't need to handle or shoot to change games. NBA teams will buy his interior presence and instincts for rim protection. And they should still see enough translatable offensive value in his ability to carve out space, put back misses and finish rolls and dives at a high rate.
UCLA's Adem Bona should be looking at more than 4.7 shots per game this year. He won't have Tyger Campbell or Amari Bailey to set him up, but he'll still earn easy-basket opportunities off his speed, leaping and motor. And he should see more featured post touches, which he'll need to capitalize on more often this season.
Still, the draw to Bona mostly stems from his ability to cover defensive ground and airspace. Regardless of whether he's able to add anything new offensively, NBA teams are bound to show interest in Bona's energizer potential as a weak-side shot-blocker, pick-and-roll defender and elite rim runner.
Baba Miller will be back at Florida State, this time without having to serve a suspension to start the season. Unlike last year, he'll start the season with momentum, coming off a strong U19 World Cup, where he took over late in the gold-medal game.
Miller's 6'11" size, slashing and shooting potential have always indicated NBA potential. This could be the year it starts to materialize, as his usage and confidence both seem likely to rise.
Syracuse's Judah Mintz played well at the NBA combine and likely would have been drafted had he stayed in. The same player from 2022-23 likely gets picked in the second round in 2024. Scouts were pleasantly surprised with his playmaking, while his rim pressure, mid-range scoring and defense from Oak Hill carried over as well.
For a 172-pound combo guard, he'll need to start taking more than 2.1 threes per game to start climbing boards into the 20s.
Trevon Brazile was having a breakout season with Arkansas before tearing his ACL in December. It seemed possible he'd sell himself based on only nine games, when he wowed with his explosive finishes and promising signs of shooting improvement. A team could have detected a value pick who'd have gone early if healthy.
Scouts will be eager to learn if he's regained his pre-injury athleticism. A full-strength Brazile should be capable of re-entering the first-round discussion, but signs of lost bounce and mobility could dent his stock.
Transfers Trying to Showcase Pro Potential with New Schools
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An unusual number of high-profile names left their schools in hopes of jump-starting their draft stock elsewhere.
Kel'el Ware will join and presumably start for Indiana after playing only 15.8 minutes per game last year at Oregon. He'll occupy Trayce Jackson-Davis' previous role, which should mean more post-ups and screener actions into rolls or threes for the 7'0" sophomore.
Scouts sound willing to give Ware another chance with a new team that will use and value his finishing tools and touch more than Oregon did. Avoiding questions about motor and toughness remain a must, but Ware clearly has the measurements, mobility and skill level for translatable inside scoring, rim protection and mid- to long-range shot-making.
Arthur Kaluma couldn't make the sophomore jump with Creighton, so he'll try for a junior breakout playing for Kansas State. Likely to take Keyontae Johnson's spot in the starting lineup, Kaluma should receive plenty of shot-making opportunities, though outstanding shot-creator Markquis Nowell has moved on to the NBA.
At 6'7" and 220 pounds, Kaluma has the frame of a pro wing or small-ball 4, while the flashes of shooting (41 threes in 37 games) have kept scouts' attention. He faded into the background a little too much on a deep Creighton team last year. The bar will rise again for the 21-year-old, but he should have a better chance to produce more consistently with a higher-usage role at Kansas State.
Former North Carolina guard Caleb Love will have one final crack to sell scouts with Arizona. His combination of 6'4" size, ball-handling and 200 career threes can look enticing, but three consecutive years shooting under 38.0 percent from the floor has made it difficult for scouts to buy in.
Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley and potential breakout star Kylan Boswell will reduce Love's margin for error in the rotation. But they could also take some of the pressure off him and allow him to score more efficiently playing to his strengths off the ball.
Grant Nelson couldn't do enough with his NBA combine invitation last year after earning one with North Dakota State. He'll have more eyes on him this season with Alabama, where he's going to create highlights with his athleticism and hustle for finishing and shot-blocking.
Despite Nelson having delivered some eye-opening plays with ball-handling moves, drives and threes, scouts believe it's more realistic to picture him as an energizer than a scorer in the NBA. Nelson should still receive plenty of on-ball reps to test and sell his scoring skills against valid SEC competition.
Harrison Ingram will look to reignite his draft stock at North Carolina after failing to make a sophomore jump at Stanford. He earned an NBA combine invite in 2022, as there has been interest in the archetype of a 6'7" connector who can handle in pick-and-rolls, pass and knock down spot-up threes.
Villanova is adding TJ Bamba from Washington State and Hakim Hart from Maryland. Bamba is interesting for his strong frame, self-creation flashes and shooting, while Hart, a 6'6" wing, intrigued with his two-point scoring efficiency and two-way playmaking.
Moving on from Dayton, Mike Sharavjamts could be looking at a high-usage role with San Francisco. While last year's 38.8 field-goal percentage hints at scoring limitations, his 6'8" size, passing, capable shooting and jumbo playmaker archetype will keep scouts' attention.
Matthew Cleveland will look to make another leap this season as a shooter with Miami after he made marginal improvements to his three-ball last year at Florida State. Given his 6'7" size, off-ball scoring, rebounding and defensive tools, becoming a more consistent shot-making threat could finally lead to NBA interest.
St. John's' roster looks very different after the Rick Pitino hiring, and former Massachusetts wing RJ Luis could be a breakout name to watch. At 6'7", he flashed NBA tools, slashing and passing with correctable weakness in his shooting.
Arterio Morris will have to earn consistent minutes in a Kansas rotation featuring star freshman Elmarko Jackson and seniors Kevin McCullar Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr.. But the Texas transfer could catch scouts' attention with his coveted mix of shot-making, explosive leaping and defensive playmaking.
Crafty, tough defensively and a dangerous shot-maker, Walter Clayton Jr. could validate last year's production at Iona by leading Florida to SEC wins.
Jamarion Sharp will leave Western Kentucky for Ole Miss and the SEC, where he'll have one last chance to sell his 7'5" size and almost unmatched career 17.6 block percentage as NBA indicators.
After two years playing a limited role in loaded Gonzaga rotations, Hunter Sallis should see more on-ball opportunities with Wake Forest. The former 5-star recruit has some intriguing shot-making skill, athleticism and secondary ball-handling ability for a 6'5" guard.
Scouts will want to see Jaden Bradley's shooting show signs of life with Arizona, but his rim pressure and two-way playmaking at Alabama should have earned him a spot on watch lists to start the season.
Hunter Dickinson, the biggest name in the transfer portal, had trouble generating NBA interest at Michigan despite making 45 threes over his last two seasons. At Kansas, scouts will want to see a big man who's lighter on his feet and more capable of switching.
A three-level scoring guard with some untapped creation potential, J.J. Starling will try to show scouts he's a better three-point shooter with Syracuse than he was at Notre Dame.
Overseas Prospects Adding Depth
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There isn't another version of Victor Wembanyama or Luka Dončić overseas and eligible for the 2024 draft. There are a handful of international first-round prospects who should give the class a needed boost and depth, though.
Zaccharie Risacher is the most well-known name right now. Scouts got to see him play against 2023 lottery pick Bilal Coulibaly and the top incoming American freshmen at the Nike Hoop Summit.
While his flaws were exposed this summer at the U19 World Cup, the 6'8", 18-year-old wing remains interesting due to his defensive upside and capable ball-handling and shot-making that create enticing scoring versatility. He's changing teams this season to join JL Bourg, and scouts will demand more flashes of persuasive creation with a bigger role.
Alex Sarr will move from Overtime Elite to Australia's NBL and look to build on a solid U19 World Cup. At 7'1", his athleticism and movement set him apart, though it's the flashes of driving and spot-up shooting that could push him up boards into the lottery discussion.
We're still waiting on the official announcement, but Aday Mara is expected to suit up for UCLA after just averaging 14.0 points, 9,1 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.7 blocks for Spain at the U18 European Championships. While it's difficult to predict what type of role he'll have for head coach Mick Cronin, it should be easy to identify the NBA potential tied to his 7'3" size, skill around the basket, passing and rim protection.
"Needs to add strength" will be a common observation, and teams may have questions about whether he'll be able to hold his own switching or defending in space. Regardless, Mara won't turn 19 until April, and his effectiveness in the Spanish ACB at the age of 17 and his dominance in FIBA suggests he's different from most international bigs his size and age.
Croatian big Zvonimir Ivisic just announced he'll be playing for Kentucky, a major development that should create more exposure and easier evaluation opportunities for scouts.
At the U20 World Cup, he just put together one of the most impressive highlight reels of any prospect. The 7'2", 19-year-old hit 11 threes in seven games while averaging 3.4 blocks in just 19.5 minutes and making some wildly fluid plays off the dribble.
Ivisic had a highly productive run during the Adriatic League playoff last year, which included a 22-point, 13-rebound, three-block game against Euroleague opponent Partizan. He initially declared for last year's draft and even worked out for the Indiana Pacers before hurting his foot and withdrawing.
Melvin Ajinca was a breakout name for France at the U19 World Cup, where he finished second at the event in scoring. He'll now be one of the biggest draws in Pro A this season, with the type of positional size, physical driving and shot-making that instantly pops under the NBA scouting lens.
After playing sparingly at Wake Forest, Bobi Klintman tested the draft waters for a temperature check on his 2023 stock. The feedback led to him withdrawing and heading overseas to Australia, where he'll hope for a bigger role that allows for more freedom to put the ball down.
At 6'10", 225 pounds, Klintman shot a respectable 36.8 percent from three while delivering some exciting glimpses of drives past closeouts and athletic finishing.
Star Freshmen Entering Logjams
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Due to transfers and the number of quality prospects who returned to college, some of the top freshmen may have to deal with logjams behind upperclassmen. That could make it difficult for the prospects to fully showcase their creativity—and for scouts to evaluate and assess whether certain skills are being masked.
Elmarko Jackson's 6'3" size, shiftiness, pull-up shooting and improved playmaking fuel some of the highest on-ball upside in the class. Will he be able to fully unleash it all in a Kansas rotation featuring Dajuan Harris Jr., Kevin McCullar Jr., Texas transfer Arterio Morris and National Player of the Year candidate Hunter Dickinson?
Jackson figures to start the season relatively lower in the Jayhawks' pecking order. He'll have to cash in on his ball-screen reps and hit the catch-and-shoot threes for his mock draft projections to match our offseason prospect rankings.
Duke's Caleb Foster checks in at No. 11 on our preseason big board, but Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach also seem likely to push for 30 minutes a game. A 6'5" combo guard, Foster will have the challenge of demonstrating creativity in a limited role or being effective as a spot-up scorer.
Freshman teammate Jared McCain will face similar challenges and likely be reduced to a heavy catch-and-shoot diet.
Ja'Kobe Walter's scoring, shot-making and defensive flashes caught scouts' attention during the spring. But Baylor added RayJ Dennis (19.5 points per game) and Jayden Nunn (9.3 points), and sophomore Langston Love should be in line for more shots as well.
Walter will be tasked with scoring efficiently and maintaining rhythm while sharing the ball and spotting up.
Rob Dillingham is one of the freshman class' most creative ball-handlers, but D.J. Wagner will take lead-guard reps, and Reed Sheppard and Antonio Reeves also play big roles in Kentucky's backcourt.
Dillingham isn't the type to stand around the arc, so it will be interesting to see how he fits in as a 6'2" scorer with a difficult shot selection.
Will Bronny James Play in 2023-24?
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The constant projections and scouting of Bronny James have quickly lost their importance and place in the NBA draft discussion. His sudden cardiac arrest last week has changed the conversation.
James is out of the hospital now, but his basketball future will presumably be on hold until doctors determine the cause and whether it's a structural, electrical or an acquired problem, as Dr. Dermot Phelan, director of sports cardiology at Atrium Health in Charlotte, explained to Doug Haller of The Athletic.
In a bizarre coincidence, James' new USC teammate Vincent Iwuchukwu collapsed last July from cardiac arrest, but was able to make his debut roughly 6.5 months later on January 12. He played the rest of the season and averaged 13.9 minutes per game.
That same recovery timetable would suggest James could be ready around February. But unlike Iwuchukwu, who was never viewed by scouts as a realistic one-and-done NBA prospect, James was expected to make a case as a first-round NBA draft prospect.
Assuming he takes a conservative approach to his return, that wouldn't leave James with much time to sell NBA teams and maximize his stock. Yet it also seems difficult to imagine James returning for a sophomore season if there's a realistic chance of Bronny and LeBron playing in the league together at the same time or on the same team.
Bronny's camp may decide he has more to lose than gain by returning late in the season, especially because of the promising momentum he'd already built during his senior season in high school. He hit five three-pointers at the McDonald's All-American Game and mostly played well during Nike Hoop Summit week in Portland.
While scouts sound hesitant projecting star-caliber upside with the 6'3" 2-guard, they do buy and value his technically sound shooting and outstanding IQ for passing and defense. His medical reports will need to come back clean in the pre-draft process, but he may have a chance at first-round consideration without having to play at USC.
On the other hand, going in the first round and earning guaranteed money may not even be a priority for James. It's possible he'd value the opportunity to experience college basketball and March Madness, knowing he'll eventually get an NBA shot regardless.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
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