Biggest Winners and Losers of 2023 NFL Offseason
A welcoming introductory press conference highlighted by a warm smile can change the entire perception of an NFL franchise.
While winning the press conference isn't the ultimate goal, significant offseason moves are meant to change the league's landscape and instill renewed optimism or reset an organization's approach since 31 squads fall short of winning the Super Bowl every year.
Certain moves are more drastic than others, and they aren't all made to immediately compete. The designation of being an offseason "winner" or "loser" is based on what's gained or lost.
These differentiations range from personnel acquisitions and departures to coaching changes to market resets.
Splash moves can backfire, of course. Last year's Russell Wilson trade worked out for the Seattle Seahawks rather than the Denver Broncos. Yet the Broncos weren't content to stand pat and responded this offseason with another potential franchise-defining move that will be discussed shortly.
Whatever the case, each of the following changes should have a drastic impact.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
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Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson got almost everything he wanted this offseason.
Jackson and the Ravens finally agreed to terms on a long-term contract extension worth $260 million in total. He now has the second-largest contract in NFL history. Although Jackson failed to surpass the Cleveland Browns' Deshaun Watson in guaranteed money like he reportedly wanted, the $185 million in practical guarantees is the second-most ever as well.
With the financials out of the way, the Ravens simultaneously looked at where they stood and made necessary changes to maximize Jackson's unique skill set.
Baltimore posted historic rushing numbers with Jackson behind center, but the 26-year-old clearly wanted to open up the offense even more. Previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman resigned after the 2022 season, and head coach John Harbaugh replaced him with Todd Monken.
The quarterback told reporters that Monken is "basically just giving us the keys to the offense, really."
For the passing game to be truly effective, the Ravens had to invest more in their wide receivers. They did so by signing Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year, $15 million deal in free agency and drafting Boston College's Zay Flowers with the No. 22 overall pick.
With a healthy Rashod Bateman also returning and a dynamic receiving threat in tight end Mark Andrews, Jackson and Co. should form one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses.
Loser: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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After pulling a retirement about-face last year, Tom Brady called it quits for real this offseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now back to facing the uncertainty of life without an established starting quarterback.
General manager Jason Licht tried to prepare for this moment when he drafted Kyle Trask with the 64th overall pick in 2021 NFL draft. The team also signed Baker Mayfield to a one-year, $4 million contract.
However, Trask has attempted nine total passes through his first two seasons, and Mayfield is on his fourth team in just over a year. Brady's overall play might have declined last season, but he still would have been a superior option.
While the competition remains ongoing with training camp right around the corner, Mayfield seems to hold a slight edge over Trask.
"In general, we're hearing the words that have been used to describe Baker Mayfield since the start of his career. The positive ones, like moxie and leadership," ESPN's Jeff Darlington reported. "And those are the things so far in Tampa it feels like could earn him the starting job. There is just definitely a little bit more of a vibe when I talk to people about these two quarterbacks, that Baker seems to be imposing himself."
Whether it's Mayfield or Trask leading the way, the current roster isn't better than last year's 8-9 squad.
Winner: New York Jets
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The New York Jets haven't had a first-team All-Pro quarterback since Joe Namath in 1972. Ken O'Brien, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Vinny Testaverde and even Brett Favre failed to reach that mark with them since then.
The Jets have taken their chances on trying to find the solution. They drafted Zach Wilson with the second overall pick only two years ago. But those previous missteps led them to make the offseason's biggest acquisition when they traded for four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers turns 40 later this year and didn't play up to his typical All-Pro level last season. However, he's still a massive upgrade over Wilson, who has completed only 55.2 percent of his passes with a 15-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio across 22 career games.
Rodgers doesn't need to win another MVP trophy. He just needs to play competent football and the Jets should be able to hang with the AFC's better squads.
The Jets finished 7-10 last season with arguably the league's worst quarterback room. Plunk Rodgers into an offense that features the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year in Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb and returning running back Breece Hall, and the group should be cleared for liftoff.
Loser: Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
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Ryan Tannehill's tenure as the starting quarterback of the Tennessee Titans is coming to an end. The only question is how soon it'll actually happen.
The 11-year veteran turns 35 later this month, and he's operating on the final year of his current contract. Meanwhile, new Titans general manager Ran Carthon traded up in the second round and drafted Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.
At some point this year, the Titans will have to decide whether they're capable of competing. Otherwise, they'll be better served by seeing what Levis can do.
Levis turned 24 in late June. He isn't a long-term project. He'll be expected to contribute at some point this season.
Levis' skill set also fits well in the Titans' offensive scheme. He can drive the ball down the seams and over the middle of the field with ease as part of the play-action passing game.
Considering that star running back Derrick Henry turns 30 in January and the team already moved on from left tackle Taylor Lewan, outside linebacker Bud Dupree, wide receiver Robert Woods, tight end Austin Hooper and inside linebacker David Long Jr., a transition to a younger quarterback with upside may be the most logical path forward for the Titans.
Winner: Defensive Tackle Market
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A year ago, the wide receiver market exploded. Eleven different wideouts signed deals with average annual salary between $20 and $30 million. That unofficially made wide receiver the fifth premium position behind quarterback, offensive tackle, edge-rusher and cornerback.
The defensive tackle market experienced something similar this offseason, though not quite to the same level.
It's extremely difficult to obtain tackles who are consistently disruptive. That's why one signed a big-money deal in free agency, while others received contract extensions.
The Philadelphia Eagles weren't able to re-sign Javon Hargrave, who quickly agreed to terms on a four-year, $84 million deal with the San Francisco 49ers at the onset of free agency. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans' Jeffrey Simmons, New York Giants' Dexter Lawrence and Washington Commanders' Daron Payne all signed new contracts ranging from $21.9 to $23.5 million annually.
Market demands set the baseline for the positional value, and those next in line for new deals—the Kansas City Chiefs' Chris Jones, New York Jets' Quinnen Williams, Cincinnati Bengals' D.J. Reader and Miami Dolphins' Christian Wilkins—will benefit greatly.
Loser: Running Back Market
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The continued devaluation of running backs becomes more evident with each passing year. This offseason, three ball-carriers received the franchise tag instead of long-term contract extensions.
Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys is the only one of the three to sign his $10.1 million franchise tender thus far. He's coming off a season-ending ankle surgery is poised become a lead back for the first time this fall.
Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders and Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants are stuck in stalemates with their respective teams. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yardage last season, while Barkley returned to form as one of the league's best all-around backs.
Both Pro Bowlers are less than a week from the July 17 deadline to sign an extension. Neither seems to be on the verge of signing a bigger deal.
According to Hondo Carpenter Sr. of Raiders Today, Jacobs may sit out of training camp if the Raiders don't sign him to an extension. ESPN's Dianna Russini reported Barkley's availability for Week 1 "will be in serious question" if he doesn't sign an extension.
Earlier this offseason, the Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott, who previously served as the NFL's highest-paid running back. The Minnesota Vikings moved on from Dalvin Cook as well. The Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Mixon, meanwhile, may be forced to take a pay cut.
"The sad reality for a lot of running backs, most of running backs, is that your most extended deal is probably your first deal if you are a first-round selection," an anonymous general manager told Carpenter.
Winner: Denver Broncos
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It's difficult to imagine a bigger difference at head coach than the Denver Broncos going from Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton.
"[Payton is] intense, he's focused, he's such a great teacher of the game," quarterback Russell Wilson told reporters at minicamp. "All of us are learning every day, more information, learning how to play the game the right way. How to practice at the highest level. That's what we're focused on right now."
The Broncos are talented. They were last season, too. But their levels of communication and attention to detail weren't representative of an NFL team, and it showed.
After acquiring Wilson to help compete in an AFC West that features Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, the Broncos finished dead last in the division and managed only five wins.
The Broncos had to send their 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick to the New Orleans Saints for Payton and a 2024 third-round pick since he was still under contract with them. He could prove to be worth that cost, though.
An experienced leader should place the Broncos right back in the thick of the AFC West.
Loser: Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals are staring down what appears to be a lost season.
Defensive lineman Zach Allen, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and edge-rusher Markus Golden signed elsewhere this offseason. The team cut wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Standout safety Budda Baker requested a trade. Star edge-rusher J.J. Watt retired.
After a 4-13 campaign, owner Michael Bidwill cleaned house and hired Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon as his new general manager and head coach, respectively. That transition could be particularly rough on franchise quarterback Kyler Murray.
Murray is continuing to recover from the torn ACL that he suffered in December. He might not be ready for the start of the upcoming season, which will place Colt McCoy or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune at the helm.
Once Murray is back in the lineup, he'll be operating a different offense, with a greater emphasis on running the ball under new play-caller Drew Petzing.
"It's a lot different," wide receiver Marquise Brown said, per ESPN's Josh Weinfuss. "A lot different."
New decision-makers, different schemes and the potential to claim one of next year's top draft picks signal further change. This season could possibly become Murray's last in Arizona as the new brain trust builds the roster in its image.
Winner: Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett
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Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns is the prototype for an NFL defensive end.
"He might be the most imposing defensive player at any position," an NFL personnel evaluator told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. "His ability to take over a game is unique."
However, opposing offenses can game-plan around Garrett, and the Browns haven't placed enough talent around the 2017 No. 1 overall pick. In fact, Garrett faced more double-teams last year than any other defensive end, according to TruMedia Sports (h/t ESPN's Mina Kimes).
Jadeveon Clowney didn't live up to expectations as Garrett's bookend. General manager Andrew Berry's refusal to invest anything of substance into his defensive tackles made the entire defense soft, too.
On paper, those two spots now appear to be rectified.
Berry acquired Za'Darius Smith from the Minnesota Vikings by flipping a pair of future fifth-round picks. In Smith's last four healthy seasons, he accumulated 44.5 sacks. The team also signed Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, who posted the league's third-highest pressure rate among those with 200 or more pass-rushing snaps last season, per Next Gen Stats.
The Browns also signed defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. He's arguably their best defender at the point of attack over the last decade. Third-round pick Siaki Ika should add more beef to the defensive line as well.
As long as Jordan Elliott, Maurice Hurst and/or Perrion Winfrey emerge alongside Tomlinson, Garrett should have the best defensive line around him since he entered the league.
Loser: Indianapolis Colts Secondary
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The Indianapolis Colts' cornerbacks might be the league's worst position group.
A year ago, the Colts signed Stephon Gilmore to a two-year, $20 million contract. The 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year performed as well as anyone on Indianapolis' defense and single-handedly help secure a few victories during a lost season.
But the Colts front office realized the squad required a reset this offseason and traded Gilmore to the Dallas Cowboys for a fifth-round draft pick. General manager Chris Ballard responded by drafting three cornerbacks—Julius Brents, Darius Rush and Jaylon Jones—in the second, fifth and seventh rounds, respectively.
"They've got the length that you look for at times," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said, per JJ Stankevitz of the Colts official site. "That can be good and that can be bad. It all comes back to ability, but it's a good starting point with those guys. They use it as an asset for them."
Ballard and Co. couldn't expect losing a projected starter, Isaiah Rodgers, to a season-long suspension for betting on NFL games. Now, the Colts are left with veteran Kenny Moore II, second-year undrafted free agent Dallis Flowers and three rookies as their top options.
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