Every MLB Team's Biggest Reason for Optimism in 2nd Half of 2023 Season
The start of the second half on Friday did not mark the beginning of a whole new season in Major League Baseball, but let's pretend just for a moment like it did.
Because this way, it's that much easier to be optimistic about all 30 teams as they head into the stretch run.
We went looking for reasons why good and bad teams alike might get better. Or, in the case of the latter, how they might at least get hope for the future in some way, shape, or form.
We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.
American League East
1 of 6
1. Tampa Bay Rays (60-36): Shane McClanahan to the Rescue!
The Rays have lost eight out of 11 since they put McClanahan on the injured list with back tightness on June 30, resulting in their lead in the AL East getting trimmed from 6.5 games to just one game. Mercifully, he's due back Monday. If he can live up to the league-best 2.53 ERA he had before his IL stint, he'll once again be an important stabilizing force.
2. Baltimore Orioles (57-35): Their Offense Should Have Even More in the Tank
The league average OPS this year is .730, and we bring that up because the Orioles' offense has yet to go below that mark at any point this season. And there may yet be more where that came from. Ryan Mountcastle was only recently activated off the IL and the O's haven't seen the best of the recently promoted Colton Cowser yet.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (53-41): Alek Manoah Might Be Back
"Disaster" doesn't even come close to describing what Manoah, a receiver of Cy Young Award and MVP votes in 2022, experienced in the first three months of this season. It was huge, then, when he returned from a stint in the low minors to fire six one-run innings on July 7. More of that would be huge for a Blue Jays team that hasn't yet peaked.
4. Boston Red Sox (50-44): They'll Have an Actual Shortstop Soon
The Red Sox are five games over .500 even though they've gotten minus-0.3 rWAR out of six different players at shortstop. But with two-time All-Star Trevor Story on the comeback trail, things at short could soon change for the better...provided, of course, the elbow surgery he had in January fixed the problem he'd been having with his throwing.
5. New York Yankees (50-44): If Sean Casey Doesn't Fix the Offense, Aaron Judge Can
When the Yankees fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson before the All-Star break, they might as well have sent an actual goat into the actual wilderness. But if his successor, Sean Casey, can't fix an offense that's hitting just .231, maybe Judge can do it when he comes off the IL. To this end, the hope is the reigning AL MVP will be back in August.
American League Central
2 of 6
1. Minnesota Twins (48-46): The Schedule Favors Them
The Twins are bullish that their underperforming offense, which is currently producing 4.3 runs per game, will get going at some point. But while the odds there are indeed solid, we're more so looking at the schedule and liking what we see on their behalf. At .475, the combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents is the lowest of any contender.
2. Cleveland Guardians (45-48): The Offense Has Been There Lately
Though only three teams have scored less frequently than the Guardians have this year, things are actually looking up. After previously averaging less than four runs per game, they're at 4.7 per game dating back to June 18. Especially with the staff ace now sidelined with elbow inflammation, more of the same is less luxury and more necessity.
3. Detroit Tigers (41-51): Things Are Looking Up for Greene and Torkelson
Don't look now—or rather, do—but Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are looking like they could be a dynamic duo for the Tigers after all. Greene immediately resumed his breakout campaign upon returning from a month-long stay on the IL on July 8, while Torkelson has been warm with a .944 OPS in 14 games since June 27.
4. Chicago White Sox (40-55): They're Not Going to Blow It Up
This year has been a massive disappointment for the White Sox, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post has reported that the club will at least keep Dylan Cease, Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr. off the trading block. If they also refuse to sell low on Tim Anderson, the Sox will exit this season with the core to go get 'em next year.
5. Kansas City Royals (27-67): Bobby Witt Jr. Only Recently Showed Up
The Royals shouldn't be this bad after so many years of rebuilding, but at least the most crucial piece of said rebuild has been looking better of late. Witt, formerly baseball's No. 1 prospect, has hit his stride with a .315 average and six home runs over his last 28 games. More of that is precisely what the Royals need to see from him.
American League West
3 of 6
1. Texas Rangers (55-39): The Offense Hasn't Let Them Down Yet
There's more than one reason why the Rangers' lead in the AL West has shrunk since peaking at 6.5 games on June 23, but a big one is that the club's ERA is steadily rising. It's hard to foresee their doom, however, because their league-best offense has been a different story. If anything, it's getting better as the year moves along.
2. Houston Astros (52-42): Here Comes Yordan Álvarez
When Álvarez went on the IL with an oblique strain on June 9, the Astros were five games out of first place and mired in a losing skid. But rather than sink further back, they've cut the Rangers' lead to three games. It wouldn't be surprising if they finally erase the deficit shortly after Álvarez returns later this month.
3. Seattle Mariners (46-46): The Real Julio Rodríguez Has to Show Up At Some Point
It's thus far been a season of fits and starts for the Mariners and it's hard to separate that from how Rodríguez has had trouble getting going in his own right. However, his underlying metrics continue to provide ample reason for hope. Everything there looks largely similar to what was there during his historic, Rookie of the Year-winning effort in 2022.
4. Los Angeles Angels (46-48): Shohei Ohtani Will Benefit Them One Way or Another
It's hard to feel optimistic about the Angels while Mike Trout is on the IL and the club's playoff chances are dropping like a roller coaster to the center of the earth. But, hey, at least they have Ohtani. If he doesn't stick around while he pursues his second MVP award and Judge's single-season American League home run record, he should fetch a gigantic haul in a trade.
5. Oakland Athletics (25-70): Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof Can Only Help
We honestly wouldn't have known what to put here if the A's hadn't made the call to promote Soderstrom and Gelof to the majors for the second half. They're the No. 17 and No. 91 prospects in MLB, respectively, and are coming to Oakland off impressive seasons with Triple-A Las Vegas. If nothing else, they'll make a dismal club more watchable.
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National League East
4 of 6
1. Atlanta (61-31): They Can Still Get Better
Led by NL MVP front-runner Ronald Acuña Jr. and NL home run leader Matt Olson, Atlanta has already risen to the top of MLB by way of a 28-7 run since June 3. But lest anyone doubt they can actually get better, they'll be getting Max Fried and Kyle Wright back from injuries in the coming weeks. The two hurlers who combined to win 35 games in 2022.
2. Miami Marlins (53-42): The Offense Is Coming Alive
Even if they were swept by Atlanta the last time the two clubs hooked up between June 30 and July 2, it's apparent that the Marlins aren't going away. Especially, that is, now that their offense has risen above the level of scrappy. The Fish have averaged 5.1 runs per game in their last 16 contests, topping 10 runs in three of them.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (51-42): Trea Turner Historically Prefers the 2nd Half
It's all well and good that the Phillies are 26-10 in their last 36 games, but they're still waiting for Turner to start living up to his $300 million contract. The arrival of the second half may be just what he needs in this regard. Whereas he has a .789 OPS in the first half for his career, he's thrived in the second to the tune of an .853 OPS.
4. New York Mets (43-50): Their Rotation Is Finally Healthy
Upon falling to a season-worst 10 games below .500 on June 30, the Mets ripped off six games in a row to hint to the baseball world that they're not dead just yet. And if there's at least one reason to believe they can fully come to life, it's that their rotation is now complete for the first time all year following José Quintana's long-awaited activation off the IL.
5. Washington Nationals (37-56): Don't Forget About CJ Abrams
The Nationals are likely to look a little different on the other side of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, but the foundation upon which they're building their next contender will still be there. Abrams is meant to be a big part of it and he's recently been looking the part with a .368 average, two homers and 10 stolen bases in 10 tries over his last 21 games.
National League Central
5 of 6
1. Milwaukee Brewers (52-42): Two Key Stars Are Finally Hot
A six-game losing skid in June dropped the Brewers to 34-34, but they recovered nicely with an 18-8 run to move back into first place. And crucially, Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes have looked more like their star selves in July. Adames has a .967 OPS, while Burnes' three starts have yielded a 1.89 ERA with 26 strikeouts against only six hits.
1. Cincinnati Reds (50-44): Pitching Reinforcements Are on the Way
It is by no means coincidental that the Reds are 23-11 since Elly De La Cruz debuted on June 6, but good pitching hasn't exactly been a big part of their rise. They have a modest 4.53 ERA during this span. But even if they don't get help at the trade deadline, help will nonetheless arrive when Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo come off the IL in August.
3. Chicago Cubs (43-49): Run Differential Remains on Their Side
If things ran according to what records teams should have, the Cubs would be leading the NL Central right now. That's because they're the only team in the division with a positive run differential at plus-21. It should be just a matter of time before their luck evens out accordingly.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (41-52): More Young Talent Is on the Way
Even if it's been all downhill for the Pirates since they started off at 20-8, it's still worth tuning in to see young guys like Mitch Keller and Jack Suwinski find their strides. And more youth will be served in the home stretch, wherein Oneil Cruz is due to return from a broken leg and prospects Endy Rodriguez and Quinn Priester may be promoted.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (40-53): At Least They Have Jordan Walker
The Cardinals have already decided they'll be sellers at the trade deadline, thus putting the kibosh on whatever hopes they had of turning their season around. But as hope for the future goes, Walker has looked like the building block the Cardinals need him to be since returning from the minors on June 2. He has a .811 OPS and has played some nifty defense.
National League West
6 of 6
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (53-39): The Mookie Betts Show Is in Full Swing
With 14 wins in their last 20 games, the Dodgers are playing as well now as they have all year. If the question is how they can keep it up, one good answer involves getting more of the same from Betts. The 2018 AL MVP has been positively scorching since May 31, hitting a sturdy .340 with 16 home runs over 36 games.
2. San Francisco Giants (52-41): They Have the Best Bullpen in MLB Right Now
We can talk about Cobb-Webb (hint: the club's duo of ace starters) or the deep offense, but probably the biggest reason the Giants are in contention after a slow start to 2023 is their bullpen. It hasn't gotten much hype, but since May it's 31-for-35 in save opportunities with a 2.89 ERA. Best in baseball? Best in baseball.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (52-42): The Offense Shouldn't Stay Cold for Long
Why have the Snakes hit the skids with losses in 10 of their last 14 games? Easy. The offense has just plain gone cold, producing a total of 41 runs in this span. But there's no good reason this should last. There are no serious injuries at play. Everyone is just cold at the same time, which sucks yet is nonetheless non-binding per the rules of the universe.
4. San Diego Padres (44-50): The Offense Has Been Coming Around
Speaking of ace duos, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove have been on fire for several weeks at this point. Yet a better reason to buy Padres stock right now has to do with an offense that's underperforming no longer. With plenty of help from a previously cold Manny Machado, only three teams have outscored the Padres since the start of June.
5. Colorado Rockies (36-58): They're Still Tough At Home
Miserable though the Rockies may be, they're at least competent when they play at home. That's where they're 22-25 despite a minus-77 run differential, the latter of which is skewed by that one 25-1 blowout at the hands of the Angels on June 24. Even if it can't compete with the sheer beauty of the ballpark, it's a reason for fans to flock to Coors Field, anyway.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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