NFL Offseason Dominos Left to Fall Ahead of 2023 Training Camp
The 2023 NFL offseason is moving right along. Training camps are set to open later this month, the preseason kicks off on August 3, and in less than two months, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions to kick off the schedule.
Once training camps openโthe first rookies are scheduled to report on July 18โthere will be a whirlwind of activity as teams hold position battles, implement scheme changes and eventually trim rosters to 53 players. In a sense, these next few weeks will serve as the proverbial calm before the storm.
However, this doesn't mean that nothing is stirring. There are a few unresolved situations, mostly involving contract discussions and free agency, that will likely be addressed before the start of camps and could prompt reactionary moves from other franchises and individuals.
Here, we'll dive into the biggest dominoes to watch during the final quiet period of the 2023 offseason.
Quarterback Extensions
1 of 7
A lot of financial dominoes may fall when and if contracts start coming in for quarterbacks taken in the 2020 draft who are now extension-eligibleโspecifically for Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
The Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins are, or at least should be, in a race to get their signal-caller signed first. This is due to the next-man-up nature of quarterback contracts.
Earlier this offseason, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts signed a deal that made him the highest-paid player in league history in terms of annual value. When Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson signed his extension, he topped Hurts' $51 million annual salary by $1 million.
Whichever quarterback signs next will likely surpass Jackson's deal, and those quarterback-contract dominoes will continue to fall.
However, quarterback contracts aren't the only ones in play here. Miami, for example, needs to figure out Tagovailoa's contract before turning its attention to budding star receiver Jaylen Waddle, who will be eligible for a new deal in 2024. If the Dolphins can save cap dollars with an early quarterback extension, it will aid them in the future.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are likely to wait to address the statuses of players like running back Austin Ekelerโa 2024 free agentโuntil after Herbert's deal is done. An early extension could provide them more immediate value.
Similarly, the Bengals may wait on extensions for players like Tee Higgins and Logan Wilson until after Burrow is locked-up. According to The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr., Cincinnati would prefer to resolve those situations ahead of camp.
"They'd like to minimize how many moves leak deep into camp and traditionally wrap extension and cut matters by the opener," Dehner wrote. "They've done well avoiding off-field distractions recently, but these would qualify if they drag toward September. The clock is ticking."
A lot hinges on these quarterback extensions getting done, and it would be a fairly big surprise if at least one new deal isn't complete before the start of training camp.
Wide Receiver Extensions
2 of 7
Though there isn't as much riding on the receiver market as there is on the quarterback market, a lot of folks will be eyeing the Minnesota Vikings and their ongoing extension talks with wideout Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson is another extension-eligible 2020 draft pick who's likely to reset the market, though he hasn't made his contract an offseason priority.
"I don't really see it as a cloud hanging over my head," Jefferson said, per The Athletic's Alec Lewis. "The contract comes with the game."
Tyreek Hill currently leads all NFL wide receivers with an annual salary of $30 million. Jefferson, who just led the league in receiving yards, stands to climb past Hill in terms of yearly earnings. And once Jefferson gets his extension, it will provide some clarity for teams looking at extensions next offseason.
The Bengals, Eagles and Dolphins, for example, will have extension-eligible receivers in Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Waddle, respectively. Each of them could soon see deals at or around the level of Jefferson's impending contract.
But the receiver market isn't just waiting on Jefferson's deal. Wideouts like Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. are slated to be free agents in 2024 and could soon set a new bar for second-tier receivers.
The current bar appeared to be set when Christian Kirk signed a deal worth $18 million annually with the Jacksonville Jaguars last offseason. However, it wouldn't be a shock to see a receiver like Higgins or Pittman reach $20 million annually either via an extension or through the open market.
That would put them in the salary range of receivers like Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen, and the $20 million-per-year mark may be where second-tier receivers are headed. As is the case at quarterback, we could see a team or two try to jump the market extending sooner than later.
The Franchise Tag Deadline
3 of 7
Just before rookies begin reporting to camp, the deadline to extend players under the franchise tag will pass on July 17. That's relevant for four franchises: the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys and the Jaguars.
The Ravens and Washington Commanders tagged Lamar Jackson and Daron Payne, respectively, but both players have already signed new long-term deals.
Jacksonville is a bit of an outlier here, as it gave the tag to tight end Evan Engram. The Raiders, Cowboys and Giants, meanwhile, tagged running backs Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley.
We could see a domino effect if any of those three backs signs an extension before the deadline. That's especially true with Barkley and Jacobsโboth of whom are multi-time Pro Bowlers who could make an argument for being the league's highest-paid running back.
Pollard, who made his first Pro Bowl appearance in 2022, is the only player who has already signed his franchise-tag tender. Should Jacobs or Barkley sign a new deal, it could either set the stage for the other to sign or potentially create a standoff scenario.
If, for example, Barkley tops Christian McCaffrey's $16 million annual salary to become the league's highest-paid back, Jacobs could refuse to play for anything less, and vice versa. And there's already been some speculation that Jacobs won't play sans a long-term deal.
"At this point, if there's not a long-term deal, I don't anticipate Josh Jacobs being there at the start of training camp and I don't know that he shows up Week 1," NFL Network's Tom Pelissero said on the Rich Eisen Show (starting at the 4:40 mark).
Once the July 17 deadline passes, any remaining tagged players will either play under the tag or not at all. This means that if these particular dominoes are going to fall, they'll assuredly do so before training camp.
.jpg?w=256 "Eagles Sirianni Football")
.jpg?w=256 "Titans Football")
The Free-Agent RB Market
4 of 7
While Jacobs, Barkley and Pollard are searching for hefty paydays, some quality running backs are simply looking for work.
At the top of the list is Dalvin Cook, who just followed his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl campaign by being released by Minnesota in a cap-saving move. The 27-year-old, who tallied 1,468 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns last season, has drawn interest but has yet to accept a deal.
According to ESPN's Jeff Darlington (h/t Chris Schad of FanNation), Cook has a standing offer from the Dolphins but "isn't willing to accept" that offer.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler noted (h/t Karen Guregian of MassLive) that the New England Patriots are "intrigued," while both the Dolphins and New York Jets have some level of interest.
Whenever Cook signs, it could set off a chain reaction, as teams that missed out on him may pivot to other free-agent backs like Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette. Cook's contract could also set a precedent for what backs like Elliott and Hunt can expect to earn on the open market.
If, for example, Cook receives an offer worth only $6 million annually, other free-agent backs will probably have to accept less money to be employed by a team in 2023.
Franchise-tagged running backs could come into play here too, depending on how negotiations go. If faced with a season-long holdout, the Raiders or Giants could hypothetically rescind the franchise tag and sign a back like Cook or Elliott to a lesser deal.
Some free-agent backs may have to wait until injuries occur or deficiencies present themselves in camp, but it would be a surprise if Cook doesn't get the lingering running back market rolling before then.
The Free-Agent Edge Market
5 of 7
Dalvin Cook has garnered plenty of offseason attention since his release, and there's been a fair bit of buzz on Ezekiel Elliott and other unsigned running backs as well. The pass-rusher market has generated much less attention, which is a bit surprising.
A playoff hopeful can never have too many good sack artists, and there's a shocking amount of good pass-rushers still available. The list includes three-time Pro Bowler Robert Quinn, three-time Pro Bowler Jadeveon Clowney and Yannick Ngakoue, who has only one Pro Bowl on his resume but has produced at least eight sacks in all seven of his NFL seasons.
Older but still effective pass-rushers like Justin Houston, Melvin Ingram and Carlos Dunlap are also seemingly ripe for one-year deals with potential contenders.
In all likelihood, teams are waiting to see what they have in younger players and rookies before diving back into the free-agent pool for a pass-rusher. It's a premium position, and even situational or older players tend to command fair compensation. Dunlap got $3 million last season to play only 50 percent of the defensive snaps with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Still, it will only take a signing or two for pass-rusher-needy teams to feel pressure to add to their rotations. Those deals could also set the going rate for the complementary pass-rushers remaining on the market.
As is the case at running back, defenders may be willing to settle for less than their ideal asking prices if others start signing for less and open roster spots begin disappearing.
Fans should expect to see at least some movement on the pass-rusher market before training camp. The sooner these players get into team facilities and start learning playbooks, the more likely they'll be to become early and frequent 2023 contributors.
The Future of DeAndre Hopkins
6 of 7
Along with Dalvin Cook, wideout DeAndre Hopkins has been a huge name on the free-agent market ever since he was released by the Arizona Cardinals. According to Fowler (h/t Bleacher Report's Mike Chiari), the Chiefs have "kept in contact" with Hopkins, while the Tennessee Titans and Patriots are also interested.
The Chiefs, Patriots and Titans all lack a proven No. 1 receiver, a role that the 31-year-old Hopkins still appears capable of filling.
Hopkins, who logged 717 yards in nine games last season, is the top wideout remaining on the open market. He served a six-game suspension for violating the league's PED policy last season but his numbers prorated over a 17-game season would have made him a 1,354-yard receiver.
With 1,354 yards, Hopkins would have ranked eighth in the NFL in receiving last season, two yards behind Jaylen Waddle.
Hopkins is a particularly important domino to track because if and when he signs, it will likely leave the interested teams that didn't land him scrambling for more receiver help. That should prompt one team to make a move to sign Hopkins ahead of training camp.
While the pool of free-agent receivers isn't as deep as those at running back and edge-rusher, there are some quality pass-catchers still available. Receivers like Jarvis Landry, T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins and Byron Pringle can help teams if signed ahead of the 2023 season.
However, each of them might have to wait until Hopkins is employed before generating any significant interest on the open market.
Potential Tank-Related Trades
7 of 7
This one is a bit more hypothetical, because any teams tanking for a top 2024 quarterback prospect like Caleb Williams probably won't reveal themselves until the regular season. We know which teams could or perhaps should try tanking in 2023โB/R's Brent Sobleski recently examined that very topicโbut it's hard to know right now which squads are bad enough to actually pull it off.
If there is a team already willing to chase the No. 1 overall pick, it could potentially give itself an edge by trading away a top player. It's an idea Joe Lombardi of the GM Shuffle podcast and The Daily Coach recently discussed on The Pat McAfee Show.
Specifically, Lombardi discussed the Los Angeles Rams and star defensive tackle Aaron Donald: "Say if the Rams start slow, do they at that point trade Aaron Donald at the trade deadline?"
Why wait until the trade deadline if the goal is to lose games early and often? The Rams could make Donald available now and all but guarantee themselves a shot to earn or move up for the No. 1 pickโand L.A. isn't the only team to watch.
The Raiders could try moving Jacobs, especially if contract talks remain stagnant. The Cardinals could move standout safety Budda Baker, who requested either a trade or a new deal early in the offseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could try moving wideout Mike Evans or linebacker Devin White, both of whom will be free agents in 2024, or receiver Chris Godwin, who will be a free agent in 2025 and would likely yield premium trade value.
It's all theoretical right now, but it might only take one blockbuster move to spark a flurry of trade activity as franchises scramble to offload assets and position themselves to draft their quarterback of the future.
*Contract information via Spotrac.
.jpg?w=480 "Eagles Sirianni Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Titans Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Bears Ravens Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Texans Patriots Football")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft ๐")
