Kirk Cousins, Top QBs Most Likely to Change Teams After 2023 NFL Season
Quarterback is undoubtedly the most important position in the NFL, and the teams that don't have elite signal-callers are searching for them. This is why, for all but the league's best quarterbacks, job security can be fleeting.
Kirk Cousins, for example, could be entering his final campaign with the Minnesota Vikings, despite making three Pro Bowls in five seasons with the franchise. He'll be a free agent next offseason and doesn't expect to have contract talks until then.
"I think we'll probably talk about the contract next March," Cousins said, per ESPN's Kevin Seifert. "Until then, [we'll] just focus on this season and the job to do right now."
Cousins has shown flashes of being very good, but "very good" isn't quite enough in today's NFL. Ultimately, teams opt to move on in the search for greatness.
Below, we'll examine six quarterbacks who are the most likely to change teams in 2024. We'll look specifically at projected Week 1 starters or quarterbacks expected to compete for the starting job, while excluding placeholders for incoming rookies. We'll also examine the individual reasons why each of them could be on the move in less than a year.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
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There's plenty to like about Cousins as a quarterback. The 34-year-old has made four Pro Bowls, has a career 97.8 passer rating and just helped Minnesota win 13 games.
However, Cousins has also failed to lift the Vikings to the ranks of serious playoff contenders. He's gone just 1-3 in the playoffs (1-2 with Minnesota) and hasn't earned a playoff win since the 2019 season.
If Cousins can't deliver postseason success this year, the Vikings may not be interested in re-signing him next March. The reality is that this is a rebuilding team, and the offseason releases of Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook serve as proof.
However, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah cannot afford to blow things up at quarterback just yet because of Cousins' contract. His $20.3 million 2023 cap hit and the $48.8 million in dead money remaining on his contract are fully guaranteed.
While Minnesota will owe Cousins $28.5 million in dead money next year, it will owe that whether or not he's on the team. Unless Cousins proves that he's the quarterback who can end the Vikings' lengthy Super Bowl drought—their last appearance was in 1976—they'll likely move on to look for one who can.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
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The Las Vegas Raiders just signed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year $72 million free-agent contract. Garoppolo previously played under head coach Josh McDaniels with the New England Patriots and appears to be a perfect fit for McDaniels' system.
These are reasons why Garoppolo's job is probably a bit more secure than Cousins'. However, they don't guarantee that Garoppolo will be a Raider beyond this season.
Garoppolo's health is the factor to consider here. The 31-year-old has an extensive injury history and has only played 15 or more games in a season twice. He's also coming off a season-ending foot injury that required a waiver when he joined the Raiders.
According to ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio, the waiver was required because Garoppolo would not have passed a physical.
While Garoppolo is expected to be the Week 1 starter, there's no guarantee that he'll be or stay healthy this season. That could leave Las Vegas relying on Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell and perhaps stumbling into a top 2024 draft pick.
If the Raiders do end up in a position to draft a QB prospect like Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, Garoppolo could be on the way out. Las Vegas could release him next offseason and save $13 million off the 2024 cap.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers traded up for the third pick in the 2021 draft and used it on Trey Lance. However, Lance has only made four starts, suffered a season-ending ankle injury in 2022 and watched as Brock Purdy took San Francisco to the NFC title game.
Lance should get one last chance to claim the starting job, in part, because Purdy is recovering from elbow surgery. If Purdy isn't healthy by Week 1, Lance will compete with free-agent addition San Darnold to be QB1.
"Trey is a starter in the NFL," tight end George Kittle told Sports Illustrated. "...Purdy won eight straight games, got hurt. It's just Brock's job to lose at that point."
While Lance still has the physical upside that made him a third-overall selection, he hasn't proven nearly as much as Purdy on an NFL playing field.
If Purdy establishes himself as San Francisco's quarterback of the future this year, the 49ers will almost certainly decline Lance's fifth-year option. At that point, trying to cash in on Lance's untapped potential and trading him will become the logical alternative to losing him in 2025 free agency.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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While Lance may be facing his last chance to be the 49ers' starter, Baker Mayfield could be eyeing his last opportunity to start for any franchise.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft helped the Cleveland Browns win their first playoff game since returning to the NFL in 1999. However, he battled injuries in 2021 and was traded after just four seasons.
After struggling with the Carolina Panthers last season and navigating a five-game stretch with the Los Angeles Rams, Mayfield may have his final shot with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023.
The Bucs signed Mayfield to a one-year, $4 million deal and will have him compete with 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask in training camp. Working with receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin—not to mention new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who helped Geno Smith become a Pro Bowler last season—Mayfield just might resurrect his career in Tampa.
If that happens, the Buccaneers may have their long-term answer at quarterback.
However, if the 28-year-old can't beat out Trask or struggles for a third consecutive season, the Bucs are going to move on, and Mayfield will likely be looking for work as a backup.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
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Kyler Murray's situation with the Arizona Cardinals is similar to Cousins' with the Vikings. Murray has shown some flashes—including two Pro Bowls—but hasn't yielded postseason success.
Murray has produced a 25-31-1 record during the regular season and a 0-1 record in the playoffs. He's also failed to establish himself as a locker room leader, though he may be changing that perception during his recovery from a torn ACL.
"I was a Kyler Murray fan before, but I'm a big Kyler Murray fan now, for sure," offensive tackle D.J. Humphries said, per Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic. "... just being around him and seeing him attack his rehab like this. It's been impressive."
The reality here is that Murray's situation could be out of his hands. He probably won't be on the field early this season, and the Cardinals roster is one of the most lackluster in the league. Arizona, which also owns the Houston Texans' 2024 first-round, could end up with two top-five selections next spring.
That could mean a shot at Williams or Maye, and a front office that didn't draft Murray could jump on that opportunity. The caveat here is that Murray's contract will still have $81.5 million in dead money remaining next offseason.
Of course, if the Cardinals view a 2024 prospect as a clear upgrade over Murray, it could trade the 25-year-old after June 1 and save $38.9 million off the 2024 cap.
The financials could make moving Murray difficult, but if a quarterback-needy team misses out on a top prospect, it could be willing to take on Murray as a reclamation project.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
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Of all the quarterbacks on this list. Ryan Tannehill of the Tennessee Titans is the most likely to be playing for a different team in 2024.
Tannehill is entering the final year of his contract, he's coming off a season-ending ankle injury, and the 34-year-old has gone just 2-3 in the postseason with Tennessee, last notching a playoff victory in 2019.
Tennessee also just used the 33rd overall pick on Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. If the rookie were a little more NFL-ready, the Titans might have already considered moving on from Tannehill—whose post-June 1 release would save $27 million off the cap.
For now, though, Levis appears to be lagging behind Tannehill and 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis, who posted a dismal 42.8 quarterback rating as a rookie.
"Willis is ahead of Levis developmentally," Nick Suss of the Tennessean wrote. "He's more decisive. He's more confident. He looks better equipped at handling the speed of an NFL game."
Fans should expect Tannehill to hold down the proverbial fort for another year while Levis and/or Willis develop. With both Tannehill and Derrick Henry slated to be 2024 free agency, though, Tennessee is likely barrelling toward a rebuild that won't include the incumbent quarterback.
Barring a surprise run, the Titans will likely turn to one of the youngsters, or with a poor enough record, a top 2024 prospect at quarterback next season. Tannehill will likely look to fill a bridge role elsewhere.
*Contract information via Spotrac.
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