Way-Too-Soon 2023-24 NBA Power Rankings: Who's the Favorite to Dethrone the Nuggets?
After a 16-4 playoff run in which they were never truly pressed by Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, the Denver Nuggets are world champions.
With all five starters under contract through at least 2024-25 (assuming Kentavious Caldwell-Pope picks up his player option that season), it's pretty easy to slot them into the top spot for the first edition of the 2023-24 power rankings.
After that, as was the case throughout the 2022-23 regular season, parity reigns. The margins between teams up and down the NBA are thin. Arguments can be made for all kinds of orders, especially when the rankings are entirely forward-looking.
With 2022-23 performance, offseason prospects (and potential losses) and loads of subjectivity on future team and player development as our guides, here is how next season could shake out.
30. Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets settling in at the 30th spot shouldn't be seen as an indictment of their long-term prospects. There's still plenty to be excited about with Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr. And if they acquire James Harden, expectations would certainly have to be adjusted in a hurry.
But Harden reportedly "will only entertain suitors that present a competitive roster and the basketball freedom for the star to be himself." It might be tough for Houston to check that first box, and paying a soon-to-be-34-year-old and declining Harden has disaster potential down the line.
The safer (and probably smarter) plan is to stay the course with the aforementioned young players. Houston could maybe bring in a veteran role player or two to set an example of professionalism, but the on-court product should still be geared toward development of the core.
29. Charlotte Hornets
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The Houston Rockets have a few potential stars, but the Charlotte Hornets already have a bona fide one in LaMelo Ball.
He's only played 162 games in three seasons, so injuries are starting to be a concern, but his numbers over the last two years are undeniable. In that stretch, Ball has put up 21.1 points, 7.9 assists, 6.6 rebounds, 3.3 threes and 1.5 steals, while shooting 38.4 percent from deep.
If the Hornets can nail this draft in which they have the No. 2 pick and find the right talents to surround Ball (and Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller), they'll be on their way.
28. Detroit Pistons
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With Cade Cunningham coming back for 2022-23, the Detroit Pistons should be flush with playmaking. Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes and Cunningham can conceivably all play together, and being able to attack from at least three different spots on the floor should make the offense unpredictable.
And with new coach Monty Williams now in place to coach, it's fair to expect all those pieces to come together in relatively short order. In his first season with the Phoenix Suns, he took a 19-win team to a 34-39 record. The next year, he was in the Finals.
Predicting that quick and dramatic a turnaround for Detroit would be silly, but you can at least be sure the team will have a direction.
27. San Antonio Spurs
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Victor Wembanyama has superstar potential, but he's not likely to join that tier in his first NBA season. It'll take some time, and the San Antonio Spurs feel like the right team to shepherd his development.
But that also means San Antonio is probably on course for at least another year or two of collecting more losses than wins.
If this was a 2025-26 power rankings, the Spurs would almost certainly be higher, but they don't figure to have enough veteran talent around Wembanyama to threaten 40 wins.
26. Indiana Pacers
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When healthy, the Indiana Pacers have a core that's already pretty competitive.
When Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner are all on the floor, Indiana is plus-4.9 points per 100 possessions.
If Bennedict Mathurin takes a step forward and the Pacers can find another solid role player this offseason, they'll be good enough to compete for a play-in spot.
In fact, Haliburton alone may put them in that range. This season, he averaged 20.7 points and 10.4 assists, while shooting 57.2 percent on twos and 40.0 percent on threes.
25. Washington Wizards
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The Washington Wizards should be aiming for a full-scale rebuild, but that's probably been the case for a few years. It hasn't happened to this point, so the assumption for now is that the key pieces will still be there 2023-24.
If they are, and they stay relatively healthy, the Wizards should once again be competitive, at least to the degree they might snag a play-in spot.
Kristaps Porziņģis is coming off likely the best campaign of his career. Bradley Beal still feels like a borderline automatic 20 points. And Monte Morris is the kind of point guard who can stabilize any lineup.
All three are under contract for 2023-24 (assuming Porziņģis picks up his $36.0 million), and Washington was plus-4.2 points per 100 possessions when the trio was on the floor in 2022-23.
24. Portland Trail Blazers
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Like Washington and the prospect of a rebuild, the idea of a Damian Lillard trade seemingly comes up every summer. The noise is plenty loud on that front already, but we'll once again assume the star stays put.
Whether that means Portland generally stands pat or does something dramatic like trade Anfernee Simons and the No. 3 pick, the presence of Lillard alone means the Blazers will be a tough out (as long as he's actually playing).
In his age-32 season, he posted career highs in points per game (32.2), threes per game (4.2), free throws per game (8.8), true shooting percentage, assist percentage and offensive box plus/minus. When available, he doesn't appear to be slowing down.
23. Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic have one of the game's most intriguing young cores, and that extends well beyond Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero, who averaged 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists.
Another 6'10" forward with some playmaking chops, Franz Wagner averaged 18.6 points and 3.5 assists. Wendell Carter Jr. has shown flashes of Al Horford-like versatility. Markelle Fultz is one of the best redemption stories in the league. And there still seems to be some untapped upside with Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs.
With another year and offseason and seasoning under the young player's belts, it's easy to see this team pushing 40 wins (it went 34-48 in 2021-22).
22. Utah Jazz
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For the Utah Jazz to trade Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert and immediately land and develop an All-Star starter in Lauri Markkanen is franchise-altering stuff.
Typically, when a team unloads its two best players, it's signing up for a multi-year rebuild packed with losing. But the Jazz were above .500 for much of 2022-23, and they could seemingly play with anyone when their most important players were available.
When Markkanen and Walker Kessler were both on the floor, Utah was plus-5.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Jazz have three first-round picks this month. If Ochai Agbaji, Talen Horton-Tucker and one or two of those picks are able to elevate their games in 2023-24, `Utah's absence from postseason play may not last too long.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Oklahoma City Thunder going 40-42, pushing for a playoff spot and rostering a First Team All-NBA player made them one of the game's biggest and most pleasant surprises in 2021-22.
With First Teamer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 31.4 points and 5.5 assists, back in the fold and alongside the playmaking of Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams, OKC should have one of the game's more dynamic attacks.
But what could really propel them forward is the debut of Chet Holmgren.
If there was one glaring weakness for the Thunder, it was a lack of size that contributed to weak defensive rebounding and rim deterrence. Theoretically, the seven-foot Holmgren will help on both fronts.
20. Toronto Raptors
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The 41-41 Toronto Raptors underperformed their point differential all season. Their "expected" record was 45-37, which may have allowed them to skip the play-in tournament altogether.
But the standings aren't set by point differential and expected wins, and there are real, addressable concerns that led to the extra losses.
For one thing, a lack of traditional size prior to the acquisition of Jakob Poeltl contributed to a mediocre defense. Re-signing him could help the Raptors avoid a similar pitfall at the start of 2023-24.
Adding some shooting this summer could help too. Toronto was 28th in three-point percentage and tied for 27th in threes per game.
But ultimately, the Raptors taking the next step will largely depend on the development of Scottie Barnes. If he stays on the same plateau he was on in Year 2, Toronto will be average again. If he improves as a shooter and playmaker, a return to the playoffs could be in order.
19. Atlanta Hawks
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Going 41-41 certainly feels like a mediocre finish, but if the Atlanta Hawks could merely shore up their second unit, they could probably push toward 50 wins in 2023-24.
When their starters (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela) were all on the floor, the Hawks were plus-6.0 points per 100 possessions.
And a lot of what made the Young-Murray partnership so intriguing came to fruition. Murray spared Young of more difficult defensive assignments. He also alleviated some of Young's playmaking burden.
Of course, having both is part of why Atlanta will be operating over the salary cap this summer. And that will make the aforementioned task of improving the bench tricky. Pulling that off might depend as much on coaching as it does. on the front office.
With a full offseason to implement his schemes and vision, Quin Snyder should be up to that task.
18. Chicago Bulls
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The continued injury woes of Lonzo Ball is one of the league's tougher current stories, mostly because of the effect on Ball and his career.
It's also severely impacted the trajectory of the Chicago Bulls.
In 2021-22, the Bulls were plus-6.8 when Lonzo was on the floor with DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vučević and Zach LaVine. But he only appeared in 35 games. Then, he missed all of 2022-23.
Over the last two seasons, when that trio plays without Ball, it's minus-2.1 points per 100 possessions.
And there's still no timeline for the point guard's return.
If there was some confidence he'd be back and ready by training camp, it'd be easier to move this team a few spots up the standings. Without that table-setter, Chicago is likely in for another year in the middle.
17. Brooklyn Nets
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Few, if any, teams will be better equipped to play mostly positionless basketball in 2023-24 than the Brooklyn Nets.
This season's Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant trades left them with a roster that includes a plethora of wings, including Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale. And with the mobility of Nic Claxton, most of Brooklyn's lineups will be able to switch 1 through 5 on defense.
The real X-Factor, though, will once again be Ben Simmons.
If he's still completely averse to shooting and averages under seven points again, his $37.9 million salary will feel like one of the biggest albatrosses in sports. If he can even get to 85-90 percent of what he was during his three All-Star campaigns with the Philadelphia 76ers, the Nets will be a contender to finish above the play-in fray.
16. New Orleans Pelicans
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Over the course of Zion Williamson's career, the New Orleans Pelicans are plus-3.9 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor and minus-1.3 when he's not.
The problem, of course, is that Zion has only appeared in 114 games over those four seasons. With that many years of injuries and uncertainty, it's impossible to know how much he'll play in 2023-24, and that makes evaluating this team tricky.
Brandon Ingram's struggles to stay on the floor don't make things any easier. Over his four years with the team, he's averaged 55.8 appearances per campaign.
If both of those stars are playing alongside some combination of CJ McCollum, Jonas Valančiūnas, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III or Larry Nance Jr., New Orleans is a borderline title contender.
It's just so hard to know if, when or how often that will happen.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have to look back on their brief playoff run with at least a hint of satisfaction. The Los Angeles Lakers were the only team that managed a better net rating against the Nuggets, and they were swept. At least Minnesota snuck one win in there. And they did it without starting forward Jaden McDaniels.
With him back, and Mike Conley and Karl-Anthony Towns hopefully available for the bulk of the season, the Timberwolves should have every opportunity to finish higher than eighth.
At the very least, a defense with Rudy Gobert and more experienced versions of Anthony Edwards and McDaniels should be tough to score on.
14. Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies' leading scorer and best player, Ja Morant, is facing the prospect of a season-opening suspension from the NBA.
And while the Grizzlies were actually better when Morant didn't play in 2021-22, that trend reversed in pretty dramatic fashion this season.
It certainly helps to have one of the game's best backup guards in Tyus Jones, but it's impossible to spin Morant's potential absence as a positive. Memphis will almost certainly have a worse season in 2023-24 if he's out for an extended period.
That doesn't mean they'll be out of the mix entirely by the time he returns, of course. Jones, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams are good enough to remain competitive.
But this is a level of adversity that can't be ignored when trying to sort out the entire league for next season.
13. Dallas Mavericks
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It may feel a little disrespectful to some of the teams behind the Dallas Mavericks to have a team that didn't even make the play-in tournament ahead of them.
But this is a nod to the upside of a Kyrie Irving-Luka Dončić duo that gave us tantalizing hints of how good they can be together after this February's trade.
Following the deal that landed Kyrie in Dallas, he averaged 27.0 points and 6.0 assists, while Luka put up 29.9 and 7.5. And the Mavs were plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions when both were on the floor.
Of course, there's certainly a chance Irving leaves in free agency, but Dallas can offer him the most money. And recent news that he'd reached out to LeBron James about joining him there (as unlikely as that is) suggests he's at least considering staying.
12. Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers finished the season with the second-best net rating in the league. They spent most of the season in that spot too.
But a first-round exit at the hands of the New York Knicks made the strong regular season feel like a distant memory. And it may have served as a wakeup call for a handful of players who were in the playoffs for the first time.
If Darius Garland and Evan Mobley use the loss as fuel to improve, Cleveland should have a better shot in the 2024 postseason. Simply adding playoff experience to the resume often helps.
But the bigger issue going forward is what the Cavs will do with a fifth starter spot that was occupied by Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert, Lamar Stevens and Dean Wade at various points in the season.
A consistent presence there, particularly one who can defend and make up for the lack of size of Garland and Donovan Mitchell, would go a long way toward making the Cavs real contenders.
11. New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks have a bona fide playoff star in Jalen Brunson. One year after helping Luka and the Mavericks reach the Western Conference Finals, Brunson put up 27.8 points, 5.6 assists and 2.4 threes in his first 11 postseason games as a Knick.
And with him, All-NBA forward Julius Randle, Quentin Grimes, Mitchell Robinson, Immanuel Quickley and a hopefully still developing RJ Barrett all under contract for next season, New York should push into the high 40s in wins again.
Becoming a legitimate title contender may require the Knicks to push in some of their future picks in a deal to put another star next to Brunson, but staying their current course should make them one of the East's tougher tests.
10. Sacramento Kings
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In their first full season together, Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox ended a 16-year playoff drought and led the Sacramento Kings to the best offense in the NBA.
Those two, plus Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray and Davion Mitchell will all be back for 2023-24, which means this version of the Kings are likely just getting started.
If Murray is ready to take a step closer to stardom in Year 2, Sacramento will have a good shot to win a first-round series.
9. LA Clippers
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Like the Pelicans, the LA Clippers are mostly theoretical at this point.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have been teammates for four years. And during that stretch, the Clippers have fewer playoff minutes with both on the floor than they do with one or neither.
Injuries, load management and general uncertainty will continue to plague LA as long as these two are in town, but the upside remains tantalizing.
If (and we know it's a big if) Leonard and George can both be healthy for a playoff run, the Clippers can win a championship.
8. Golden State Warriors
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The Golden State Warriors had one of the game's worst benches and road records this season. They barely escaped a first-round series against the Kings and were beaten in pretty convincing fashion by the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round.
The NBA's new "second apron," a potentially crippling salary line for big-spending teams has the potential to make this offseason very uncomfortable for the Warriors.
They're set to enter 2023-24 with over $200 million in salary committed. That second apron kicks in at $179.5 million and brings severe penalties with it. Getting below that number could mean essentially salary dumping Jordan Poole.
But if Golden State somehow emerges with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, it'll absolutely be a contender once again.
When those four played together in 2021-22, the Warriors were an eye-popping plus-18.9 points per 100 possessions.
7. Los Angeles Lakers
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They didn't find any kind of a groove till a flurry of deadline moves (and near-deadline moves) remade the roster. But the Lakers looked like a contender by the end of 2022-23—a contender that just happened to run into the buzzsaw that was the Nuggets.
While there may be a temptation (and a ton of pressure from LeBron James) to go out and land a third star, the wiser course may be to lock in what made this team work down the stretch.
Surrounded by the playmaking and shooting of Austin Reaves, D'Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, both LeBron and Anthony Davis were better able to do what they do best in the middle of the floor.
And with the aforementioned second apron now in place, the three-star model simply may not be feasible anymore. Two stars and a supporting cast that makes sense around them is more sustainable for teams looking to win for more than a year.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
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For the sixth time in his career, Joel Embiid made the postseason but didn't get past the second round. This year, his Philadelphia 76ers led the Boston Celtics 3-2 and had a chance to close them out at home.
The failure led to the dismissal of coach Doc Rivers, and with James Harden holding a player option for 2023-24, the shakeups may not end there.
But the 76ers should be interested in keeping this duo together, even with Embiid's track record of breaking down in the playoffs and Harden entering his mid-30s.
When both were on the floor, Philadelphia was plus-9.2 points per 100 possessions. Their chemistry in the pick-and-roll and penchant and ability for drawing fouls made their offense borderline unstoppable.
With another year of development from Tyrese Maxey and the possibility of moving Tobias Harris' expiring contract for more depth, the Sixers can push closer to title contention.
5. Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns didn't have much of a runway with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and the trade to acquire the former severely limited the team's depth.
Then, their summer started with the dismissal of coach Monty Williams. And now, they're looking at a summer in which both Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton could be headed elsewhere.
This level of tumult to start the offseason may not bode well for the upcoming regular season, but Phoenix already has the most elusive box checked.
There's reason for concern about Durant's durability going forward, but he and Booker are very much superstar talents. Despite going out in the second round, there's still an argument Booker was the second best player this postseason.
If the Suns emerge from what looks like a mess with a deeper, more well-rounded supporting cast around these two, they'll be among the betting favorites heading into next season.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
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Entering the playoffs as the top seed in the East and losing an opening-round series to the eighth seed in five games is embarrassing.
The Milwaukee Bucks have the excuse of Giannis Antetokounmpo missing two games, but their one win came in one of the games Giannis was out. And he was a minus in the plus-minus column in two of his three appearances.
The Miami Heat deserve the bulk of the credit for the upset, but the Bucks are surely kicking themselves over those four losses.
Presumably, the sting that came with that early exit will fuel Giannis and Milwaukee to another dominant regular season and a better effort to return to the mountaintop.
Of course, that will probably require re-signing Brook Lopez and having Khris Middleton pick up his player option (or perhaps extending him). There's plenty to sort out this summer. And the Bucks are another team that could threaten that dreaded second apron.
But with Giannis around and in his prime, this team has to do everything it can to push for a championship.
3. Boston Celtics
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The Bucks weren't the only team left in the wake of Miami's improbable run to the Finals.
Despite leading the league in net rating throughout the season, Boston opened the Eastern Conference Finals with three straight losses to Miami. And after they won three straight to force a Game 7 at home, they were embarrassed by the eighth-seeded Heat at the TD Garden.
The collapse suddenly makes a supermax for Jaylen Brown feel untenable. He's eligible for a five-year, $295 million deal one summer before Jayson Tatum is eligible for five years and $318 million.
When you sign two players to that kind of money, building out the rest of a roster becomes nightmarish, especially under the new collective bargaining agreement.
But even if Boston chooses to move Brown this summer, rather than signing him to that extension, you can be sure whatever team might acquire him would send plenty back.
And a Tatum-led team with plenty of depth would still be a title contender.
2. Miami Heat
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In both the first and third rounds, it was hard to look at Miami's matchups and think they were going to win. Even in hindsight, side-by-side comparisons of the Heat's roster to those of Milwaukee and Boston wouldn't lead many to say Miami has the better team.
But NBA games aren't played on paper. And there's obviously an intangible element to this team that few others have.
That, superstar talent at the top of the roster in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and the return of a still developing Tyler Herro should make the Heat contenders again in 2024.
If they can swing a deal for another star, and ESPN's Brian Windhorst said they would go star-hunting this summer, having them in this spot will be even more comfortable.
1. Denver Nuggets
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Denver absolutely cruised to an NBA championship with a 16-4 playoff record. They won 10 of their last 11 games, including a road closeout game in Phoenix and a sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers.
And in case you're inclined to believe the talking heads who are now saying this was an easy path to the championship, remember the individual players they dispatched along the way.
Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were all left in the wake of truly legendary performances from the Nuggets.
Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić just joined Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the only players in NBA history with a playoff run with 500 minutes, 26 points per game, seven assists per game, five rebounds per game and a championship.
Jokić became the first player in league history to lead an entire postseason in total points, total rebounds and total assists.
Aaron Gordon deserves loads of credit too. His primary defensive assignments throughout the postseason were KAT, KD, LeBron and Butler.
All three of those players, plus Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are under contract next season.
This team isn't going anywhere.
Full-Year MVP
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Joel Embiid had one of the greatest individual scoring seasons in NBA history, and he won MVP in a landslide.
But that victory came in spite of Jokić leading the league in the game's most accessible catch-all metrics and running away with Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker, "based on a model built using previous voting results."
Now, with an NBA title and another 789 minutes of dominance layered on top of that regular season, Jokić is undoubtedly the game's best and most valuable player.
In 89 regular and postseason games, he averaged 25.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 1.2 steals, while shooting 64.5 percent from two-point range, 40.9 percent from three and 81.6 percent from the free-throw line.
His combined box plus/minus over those games was 13.0, which trails only 2008-09 LeBron (13.9) and 2021-22 Jokić (13.5).
In the 3,000-plus minutes he played from October to June, Denver was plus-809. That mark led the NBA, and the closest non-Nugget was Jayson Tatum at plus-549.
This level of dominance from opening night through the end of the Finals from one individual player is exceptionally rare.
Stat of the Year
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We tracked the total number of 40-point performances throughout this past regular season. It showed up in the "Stat of the Week" portion of this slideshow several times.
Few things illustrate this season's offensive explosion quite as vividly.
And now that the playoffs are over, we have a total from both the regular and postseason. It puts the old record to shame.
From opening night to now, the NBA has seen an incredible 222 40-point games. In 1961-62, there were 153 (67 of which came from Wilt Chamberlain).
A whopping 60 players reached the threshold this season. Thirty-nine players did it multiple times. Seven players had at least 10 40-pointers, with Lillard leading the way at 15.
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