Realistic Landing Spots Top 2023 NBA Free Agents Should Avoid
NBA free agency is about players choosing their own adventure, a welcome opportunity that often comes after rookie deals and extensions that don't offer a real chance to explore options.
Remember, players don't pick who drafts them, and they're usually incentivized to re-sign with that same team on their second contract. Hitting the market brings new possibilities, not to mention shots to get handsomely paid by a team of their choosing.
Of course, there's also risk involved. Without throwing shade at the organizations we'll name, we have to acknowledge that some landing spots are worse than others. And in this case, a few are clear stay-aways.
This is a player-specific exercise, so the particulars matter. Just to choose a team at random, the Houston Rockets may be the right choice for plenty of free agents. But they might be the worst possible place for a certain center we'll name shortly.
These are the destinations a handful of notable free agents should avoid.
Brook Lopez: Houston Rockets
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If James Harden signs with the Houston Rockets, it would up the appeal for fellow free agent Brook Lopez.
There are worse fates than playing pick-and-pop offense with one of the league's great setup men in a state with no income tax. Add to that Lopez's capacity to anchor a dominant defense, something Houston hasn't had for years, and it's easy to understand the allure.
Per Yahoo! Sports' Jake Fischer, the Rockets have their eyes on the veteran big man.
However, he should still resist the urge to abandon the Milwaukee Bucks and head south. Even with Harden aboard and a handful of potential win-now trades to round out the rotation with vets, the Rockets simply aren't poised to contend like Lopez's current team.
That should matter for a 35-year-old who has remained effective far later into his career than is typical. That's not to say Lopez is on borrowed time, but he's at a stage where every season matters a little more.
Better to spend what's left of his surprisingly extended prime alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and the guys with whom he won a title in 2021.
It's possible the Rockets or some other team will make an exorbitant offer the cap-strapped Bucks can't match. But if Lopez wants another run at a title, and if he wants to make that run with an in-prime megastar teammate who suddenly has something to prove after a first-round collapse, sticking with the Bucks and avoiding the Rockets is the right move.
PJ Washington: Charlotte Hornets
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PJ Washington's restricted free agency means matters are somewhat out of his hands. If the Charlotte Hornets want to bring him back, they can by matching any offer sheet he signs with another team.
Fortunately for Washington, the Hornets' apparent upper limit on a contract offer is eminently beatable. He turned down a preseason extension worth $50-52 million over four years, per HoopsHype's Michael Scotto. Several teams could justify spending well over $20 million per season for a 24-year-old forward coming off career highs of 15.7 points, 2.4 assists and 149 made triples.
In addition to the potential for more money elsewhere, Washington should be wary of returning to Charlotte for on-court reasons.
It's hard to know what the roster will look like in the event new ownership takes over, but as it stands, there's a good chance Washington will be lower in the pecking order next season.
LaMelo Ball figures to be healthy, Miles Bridges could be back after a season on the sidelines, and this year's No. 2 draft pick will either bring in a rookie Charlotte will want to develop or, less likely, a veteran trade acquisition of some consequence.
Washington could thrive on a winner as a scoring role player who defends forwards adequately, perhaps as a younger replacement for Harrison Barnes with the Sacramento Kings or as a running mate with Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner on the intriguing Indiana Pacers.
Either option would be better than a return to Charlotte, where a diminished role and even a potential teardown loom as possibilities.
Kyrie Irving: Los Angeles Lakers
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Short of the Los Angeles Lakers settling the point guard position by acquiring Chris Paul or bringing back D'Angelo Russell, it's hard to know what it would take to make the Kyrie Irving-to-L.A. chatter go away.
The financial realities that prevent Irving from earning anything close to the max and the Lakers' reported disinterest in adding him haven't been enough to quiet the speculation about him teaming up with LeBron James for a second tour.
The salary component alone should be sufficient to discourage Irving from heading to Los Angeles.
From a purely selfish perspective, he should pursue the most money possible. Already 31 and with an alarming number of burned bridges in his wake, this offseason may be his last chance to secure max cash on a multiyear deal.
The right move here is for Irving to look out for No. 1. If that comes with the added incentive of potentially doing something special with Luka Dončić, great. But the Dallas Mavericks' losing record with those two in the lineup last season doesn't inspire much confidence, and we should all now assume Irving will eventually do or say something to fall out of favor with his latest team.
All the more reason for the eight-time All-Star to avoid the pay cut he'd have to take to join the Lakers, not to mention the immense pressure to perform, and stick with the Mavs.
For Irving, this comes down to getting the last big bag of his career before everyone sours on him.
Russell Westbrook: Any Team Other than the Clippers
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To illustrate how player-specific these suggestions can be, we're completely reversing course from the "get what you can while you can" approach we used to dissuade Kyrie Irving from signing with the Lakers. For Russell Westbrook, free agency isn't about the money.
Instead, he should turn down bigger paydays from other teams to stick with the Los Angeles Clippers, the only place he's fit well in the last several years. In that sense, the list of landing spots he should avoid is technically 29 teams long.
Though it never feels great to count someone else's money, Westbrook has made over $300 million in his career. He can afford to prioritize fit and happiness over more cash, which he can do if he came back for another season in L.A.
The most the Clippers can give the 34-year-old in 2023-24 using non-Bird rights is $3.8 million. He'll have several bigger offers on the market.
If he can stand the pay reduction, the Clippers provide Westbrook a chance to stay close to home while playing for an organization that appreciates what he brings to the table. That second part is probably contingent on him continuing to hustle on defense and leave some of his more errant shots in the holster, which is an iffy bet based on his history.
The fact remains that the last half-decade of Westbrook's career has been that of a journeyman searching for the right place to play. Five teams in five years (not counting the Utah Jazz, who bought him out without getting a minute of court time from him) should compel him to seek stability and comfort.
The Clippers may be the only team that can offer him both.
Kristaps Porziņģis: Washington Wizards
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A new regime headed by Michael Winger and Will Dawkins, both of whom had hands in the Oklahoma City Thunder's pick-hoarding rebuild, suggests things could soon be very different for the Washington Wizards.
After years of spending lavishly on their own free agents and swinging deals designed to snare that elusive eighth seed, the Wiz could pivot to patience.
Per Josh Robbins of The Athletic: "Many rival executives The Athletic has polled informally over the last two weeks expect Winger to undertake a full rebuild—if not this offseason, then within the next year."
That's bad news for Kristaps Porziņģis, but only if he returns to Washington by picking up his player option or opting out and signing a new deal with the team.
He is coming off a career year marked by 23.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game on a 49.8/38.5/85.1 shooting split. His 65 games played were the most he's logged since way back in 2016-17.
Those factors are reason enough for the 27-year-old to get on the market and secure a multiyear deal for as much cash as possible. His injury history suggests nothing about the future is certain, so maximum financial security is critical. The timing is right for an opt-out.
What's more, were Porziņģis to stick with Washington, the franchise might only view him as a trade asset. Returning via his $36 million player option (technically an early-termination option) would at least give him a chance to re-enter free agency in 2024 even if the Wizards trade him for picks, but that would mean forgoing the chance to lock down a three- or four-year deal elsewhere.
The word "agency" is right there in free agency, and the only way the Latvian can keep control over his fate is to sign anywhere but Washington.
Going back to the Wizards could put the decision-making power back in the hands of the team, raising the possibility of Porziņģis winding up someplace he never would have chosen.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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