BS Meter on Excuses for 8 MLB Teams off to Slow Starts
It's always tempting to make excuses for Major League Baseball teams that unexpectedly stumble out of the gate in a given season. Heck, we all do it.
Harder to do, though, is substantiate such excuses.
With this in mind, we broke out the BS Meter and put it to explanations for eight slow-starting teams that aren't really coming from any specific person or organization, but which nonetheless feel like they're in the ether.
Here's how the meter works:
- Low: The excuse checks out
- Medium: The excuse partly checks out, but it also oversimplifies things
- High: The excuse is complete, well, BS
We'll proceed in ascending order of teams' drops in winning percentage from 2022 to 2023.
Seattle Mariners
1 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .556 to .488
The Excuse: They just need their luck to turn around
The Mariners are unlucky? What is this? The mirror universe of their 2021 season?
Pretty much, actually. Because while they are merely breaking even with 21 wins against 21 losses, they've outscored their opponents by 19 runs. Strictly based on that, they ought to be five games over .500.
As it happens, that's about where their record would be if their record in games decided by one run was reversed.
Only the Cincinnati Reds have the Mariners' 11 losses in one-run games matched, and they've done so with seven wins to Seattle's four. This is the opposite of what you'd expect to see, and not just because the Mariners went 34-22 in one-run games last season. A team with the second-best bullpen ERA shouldn't be on the losing end of so many close ones.
More offense must be what the Mariners need and, well, go figure that the bad-luck excuse also applies there. Their hitters are dramatically underperforming their expected metrics. Unsurprisingly, among those who are really feeling the sting are reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez and All-Star Teoscar Hernández.
BS Meter: Low
Philadelphia Phillies
2 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .537 to .465
The Excuse: They just need Trea Turner to get rolling
The Phillies have two $300 million hitters in their lineup, and one of them has an .876 OPS even though he's only six months removed from Tommy John surgery.
That, of course, is $330 million man Bryce Harper. The other guy is Trea Turner, who's picked an awkward time to have, arguably, his worst season.
The $300 million shortstop's numbers are down pretty much across the board, and it's not exactly a secret that an elevated strikeout rate bears a good deal of the blame. He even already has more swinging strikeouts than he did in all of the shortened 2020 season.
An optimist would say that Turner merely needs to get his zone discipline back on track, but this is the second year in a row that his chase rate has been downright bad. And even then, better discipline won't necessarily fix his sudden ineptitude against fastballs.
There's also, you know, the fact that Turner's hitting has nothing to do with the Phillies' middling 4.63 ERA and tendency for allowing runs in bunches.
BS Meter: High
San Diego Padres
3 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .549 to .455
The Excuse: They just need Manny Machado to get rolling
Even setting aside the sudden uncertainty of what comes next now that he has a fracture in his left hand, the Padres aren't putting their poor start all on Manny Machado.
"We don't revolve around one guy," manager Bob Melvin said on Friday, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. "He has swung the bat good the last few games and really had not much to show for it."
Still, it's hard not to see Machado as a West Coast version of Turner. Here we have a $350 million hitter whose production has never been worse in general, and who has somehow become even less impactful under pressure. In late and close situations, for example, Machado's .299 OPS is among the worst in the league.
Ah, but here's the thing: Failure to hit in the clutch is not exclusive to Machado among Padres hitters.
The whole team is struggling in late and close spots. And in high leverage. And especially with runners in scoring position. And...well, you get the idea. As much as Machado's struggles have hurt the Padres, it's not all his fault that they're second-to-last in the National League in scoring.
BS Meter: Medium
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Houston Astros
4 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .654 to .558
The Excuse: They just need to get José Altuve back
José Altuve had one of his best offensive seasons in 2022, so it's no wonder that the Astros have missed the 2017 AL MVP while he's been recovering from a broken thumb.
True, Mauricio Dubón has hit .309 in Altuve's stead at second base, but his numbers have dipped since the Astros elected for him to fill his teammate's shoes in the leadoff spot. Their leadoff OPS is down 150 points from last season.
That's one reason why plate appearances with runners in scoring position have been so hard to come by for Astros hitters. Which, in turn, helps explain their descent from third to ninth in the AL in runs per game from 2022 to 2023.
It's good news, then, that Altuve could be back in the lineup as soon as this weekend. But at the same time, simply having him back atop the lineup won't fix everything.
Other causes of Houston's offensive misery include slumps on the part of Alex Bregman and Jeremy Peña, the utter collapse of José Abreu and Michael Brantley's ongoing shoulder trouble. The first two should be fixable; the latter two, maybe not as much.
BS Meter: Medium
Cleveland Guardians
5 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .568 to .452
The Excuse: The hits will come eventually
It's indeed hard to separate the fact that the Guardians rank second-to-last in the American League in scoring from another that they're batting just .229 as a team.
That's 25 points lower than the .254 average they carried in 2022, and the similarities between the two offenses in terms of personnel is just one reason to believe it won't last.
The other is that the Guardians should be hitting better than they are even as is. Their expected batting average is 22 points higher than their actual average, hypothetically making them the most snakebit team in the league.
Yet, as much as they'll help, more hits alone won't be enough to save the Guardians.
Their real fault on the offensive side is their staggering lack of power, as they've stepped down from ranking 29th in home runs last season to 30th this year. Josh Bell and Mike Zunino were supposed to help solve that, but there are areas where the Guardians are actually hitting the ball with less authority this year despite their presence.
BS Meter: Medium
Chicago White Sox
6 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .500 to .364
The Excuse: There's no way the pitching is this bad
The White Sox ranked second in the American League in ERA as recently as 2021, and many of the key hurlers from then are still around in 2023.
So, what are they doing second from the bottom of the AL in ERA this year?
It's possible to chalk it up to solvable problems. It helps that Garrett Crochet is already back in the bullpen and that Liam Hendriks is on his tail. Beyond that, there's apparently a widespread adjustment process happening behind the scenes.
"The process, the way of going about things, preparing, all that is at a whole new level here," veteran starter Lance Lynn told Foul Territory in April. "We've got guys that are literally trying all new things and learning on the fly, things all the way around."
It could be that...or, it could be that Lynn himself, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo López and other notable pitchers are getting pummeled about as much as they should be based on their expected metrics. And with the White Sox offense checking in at 11th in the AL in scoring, it's not as if the arms are the only thing holding the team back.
BS Meter: High
New York Mets
7 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .623 to .477
The Excuse: Just need to get the rotation healthy
The Mets have lost more money to starting pitchers on the injured list than any other team, and that's not even counting Max Scherzer's aches and pains.
It all makes for a clear explanation for why the only the Oakland Athletics have gotten less WAR from their starters than the Mets. They were seen as having possibly MLB's best rotation coming into the year. This simply was not the plan.
Mercifully, things are looking up. Scherzer has thus far avoided the IL, from which Justin Verlander recently returned. Carlos Carrasco's return is up next, and José Quintana may be able to ramp things up soon.
It's nonetheless folly to assume the Mets are past the worst of it with their starting rotation. The inherent risk of said rotation has already blown up in their faces, and that's without getting into how Verlander, Scherzer and Carrasco haven't resembled their vintage selves when they've been able to pitch.
Otherwise, even a fully healthy rotation won't hasten Edwin Díaz's recovery from knee surgery or infuse more power into an offense that ranks 10th in the NL in slugging.
BS Meter: High
St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 8
2022-23 W/L% Change: .574 to .409
The Excuse: They just needed to get the catching sorted
It was a big deal when the Cardinals moved Willson Contreras off catcher barely more than a month into the first year of his $87.5 million contract. It seemed like an impulsive decision the likes of which the franchise is not known for.
And then it...actually worked?
The Cardinals installing Andrew Knizner behind the plate coincided with the start of a 7-1 run marked by a 3.42 ERA. As such, perhaps they deserve the benefit of the doubt that they know what they're doing with their decision to reinstall Contreras behind the plate.
Worse comes to worst, the Cardinals can always tag in Knizner again. But be that as it may, it's unlikely that playing musical chairs with their backstops will be a lasting solution.
The real reason Cardinals starters, in particular, have 5.04 ERA is that they're just not very good. There are in-the-weeds stats to testify to that, but it doesn't need to be more complicated than pointing out the NL-high pile of hard-hit balls off them so far.
BS Meter: Medium
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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