NFL Playoff Picks: Visitors Welcome

I called it two weeks ago, it was just a dream then, but now its reality.  All four road games favored in the playoffs this week.  Totally unprecedented, you almost never have a single road team favored.  Also you have an 8-8 team hosting a 12-4 team.  Yeah, these four team divisions are working out well.

Now it will be tempting this week to take the home dogs, it’s an old axiom.  But just because it’s fun to say doesn’t mean you have to follow it.  Just like, “If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit.”  Actually, you don’t.  I’m not saying all the road favorites will cover, but 3 out of 4 will so take the 3-1 weekend rather than trying to figure out which home dog will come through.

Isn’t it funny that the week before the first round playoff games is never about the teams in the playoffs, but about the whiners and losers who missed the playoffs. (See, Jets, Broncos and Cowboys)  Well I’m sick of hearing about them, let’s get to the teams that matter.

Atlanta at Arizona (+2.5)

I think now is a good time to give a shout out to all those USC girls who couldn’t get Leinert and had to settle for Matt Cassel.  That decision doesn’t look so desperate now and you can even justify it.  Congratulations, who knew sleeping with the backup quarterback would yield you so much cache later.

If you don’t live in the Atlanta area, it’s been hard to follow this team.  Like most of us just learned their coach’s name, Mike Smith, like we couldn’t have guessed that.  This team is truly blessed getting the Cardinals in round one, who is worse than every team in Atlanta’s division.  I also like Ryan against the veteran Warner.  As they say, you can no longer call him a rookie after 16 NFL starts.  He has seen it all, except a defense as porous as the Cards.

This Cardinals team is no better or worse than every other horrible Cardinals team they’ve fielded for the last 60 years.  The only difference with this team is that it’s in the worst division in football, maybe the worst division ever.  Mike Shanahan and Eric Mangini got fired for coaching better teams than Arizona.  I think they should fire the Ken Whisenhunt before this game, just to let him know this is not acceptable.  Falcons.

Indianapolis at San Diego (+2.5)

Manning just got the much deserved MVP award, but we know what he’s really after.  This team’s had Rainman-like focus since late October and I don’t see them being distracted here.  In fact, they lucked out getting a good track to play on, usually the only thing that can slow them up in the playoffs.  They know it’s a long haul to Tampa, they need three road wins, but who doesn’t think they’re the best team in the AFC?

San Diego has new life.  They have to feel good about their finish to an 8-8 season and Denver’s collapse.  I just don’t like Norv in these games, but they had an impressive playoff run last year which everyone forgets.  It’s amazing, they replace Shottenheimer, a great winner during the regular season and choker in the playoffs, with a guy who can’t win in the regular season, but may have some kind of reverse good karma in the playoffs. 

Maybe the Chargers knew this, maybe they thought “we can weasel into the playoffs going 8-8 and then let Norv’s mastery in the postseason take over.”  Maybe he’s the anti-Shottenheimer.  Maybe the Chargers luck over the Colts comes through again.  And maybe Tomlinson will gut out an injury instead of sulking and using it as an excuse. 

Maybe Rivers won’t talk trash to the other sideline the whole game and just let his game speak for itself.  Maybe Merriman will not dance after every tackle and play clean and drug free.  Maybe all those things will happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  Colts.

Baltimore at Miami (+2.5)

Over the years and especially this year, Baltimore is nothing if not predictable.  They always have that great defense that’s only susceptible to a great passing game and play ball control offense with few mistakes and turnovers.  Then they have Ray Lewis acting like such a jackass you almost forget he’s one of the best linebackers ever.  Ed Reed, same thing but safety. 

But most importantly, they always beat the teams they should beat and lose the games they should lose.  Seriously, I think this team won every game it was favored and lost every game it was a dog (Pittsburgh being the slight exception being a one point favorite). 

So here’s a surprise quiz:  The Baltimore Ravens are favored by 3 points, given recent history should they win or lose this game?  One word answers only.

The Dolphins had an amazing year, for them.  That’s the thing about Chad Pennington, he’s always graded on a curve.  I guess because he’s likable and has the arm of another Dolphin great, Garo Yepremian.  (For those who aren’t students of the game, he was a kicker who threw an embarrassing “pass” in Super Bowl VII returned for a touchdown). 

If Chad were a normal quarterback they would see through his deficiencies, but he’s not, and everyone just wants him to succeed, so we make up catch-phrases to make him sound better, like great game manager. 

I do like this Dolphins D, a trademark of Parcells teams, but I just don’t see them wildcatting their way to a win against this great Ravens’ defense.  Ravens.

Philadelphia at Minnesota (+3)

Eagle fans are torn.  On the one hand, they see teams missing the playoffs and firing their coaches and they scream, “Why can’t that be us?”  On the other hand, they’re in the playoffs, so what the hell, might as well try to win the Super Bowl, right?  That’s what it’s all about, not spiting Andy Reid, am I right? . . . . (Philly fans still thinking)  Guys?

I like this Philly team, they have everything a team needs to advance.  Great defense, veteran quarterback, big play running back and big play receiver.  But like you, I can’t get the Cincy tie out of my head.  But I need to, because that may have been the turning point for their season.

I like Minnesota, except in the winter.  It’s a nice town with nice people.  I just don’t like their football team, at least as far as winning goes.  They’re a one trick pony, but that pony has an amazing trick.  Adrian Petersen was almost unstoppable this season.  You can survive as a one dimensional team in the regular season, but it catches up to you in the playoffs, especially against this Philly D. 

So unless you think Tavaris Jackson has some tricks or a pony, I can’t see them winning this game.  Eagles.